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Long Term Growth Rate of Countries

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The paper (Thirlwall 1979) represents a model that long term growth rate of countries can be determined by the ratio of export growth and the income elasticity of demand for foreign goods. Particularly, the model uses the balance of payment as an indicator to determine counties growth rate. Base on the article, this essay is separated into three parts, first, introduces the article in relation to Thirlwall’s law. Second, demonstrates the arguments of Thirlwall’s law. Lastly, examines the weakness of the model.

The present section briefly introduces the aims of Thrilwall’s paper. Firstly, the paper (Thirlwall 1979) judged the classical approaches by using productivities and factor supplies to explain the different growth rate between countries that was not satisfactory. As the result, the differences could be explained by the constraints on demand; indeed, the balance of payment is the central constraint for an open economy. Then, the paper predicts that the growth rate can be examined by the relation between foreign countries’ rate of income expansion, which are the income elasticity of demand for export and the income elasticity of demand for imports (Grullon 2011). Moreover, the paper used developed countries as evidence to approximate the growth rate by using the balance of payment constraint growth model.

The first argument of Thirlwall’s law lies on the constraint on demand instead of supply side, by explaining the differences in growth rate between countries. The paper (Thirlwall 1979) stated that under certain assumptions, a country’s growth rate is near to the rate of growth of export divided by the income elasticity of demand of import. More specifically, if a country has trading deficit, as it expands its demand. Yet, demand will reduce and supply will never in satisfactory. Then, the economy will suffer from the negative effect such as

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