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Macroeconomics

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|Veronika_Kostúrová |
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|Matej Bel University, Faculty of Economics |
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|Italy |
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|17.11.2011 |

Italy´s current economic situation and its prediction for the future
Macroeconomics 2

Take the art works of Botticelli, Leonardo da Vinci, Michelangelo, Tintoretto and Caravaggio, the operas of Verdi and Puccini, the cinema of Federico Fellini, add the architecture of Venice, Florence and Rome and you have just a fraction of Italy's treasures from over the centuries. While the country is renowned for these and other delights, it is also notorious for its precarious political life and has had several dozen governments since the end of World War II. In my report I would like to look at current situation of Italy, especially economy and some predicting for the future. Italy has a diversified industrial economy, which is divided into a developed industrial north, dominated by private companies, and a less-developed, welfare-dependent, agricultural south, with high unemployment. The Italian economy is driven in large part by the manufacture of high-quality consumer goods produced by small and medium-sized enterprises. Italy is the fourth largest European economy and for long enjoyed one of the highest incomes in Europe per capita, despite the decline in traditional industries such as textiles and car manufacturing as a result of globalization. But it became one of the first Eurozone victims of the global financial crisis of 2008. By the summer of 2011, Italy had one of the highest levels of public debt - a towering 120% of GDP - in the Eurozone.
There is concern over Italy's birth rate - the lowest in Europe - and the economic implications of an ageing population.

Basic Information • Full name: Italian Republic • Population: 60.1 million (UN, 2010) • Capital: Rome • Area: 301,338 sq km (116,346 sq miles) • President: Giorgio Napolitano • Prime Minister: Mario Monti
| | |
| |Italy GDP Growth Rate |
| |“The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Italy expanded 0.30 percent in the second quarter of 2011 over the previous quarter. |
| |Historically, from 1981 until 2011, Italy's average quarterly GDP growth was 0.35 percent reaching an historical high of 2.20 percent |
| |in December of 1983 and a record low of -3.00 percent in March of 2009. Italy is a member of the G8 group of leading industrialized |
| |countries.” |
| |(http://www.tradingeconomics.com/italy/gdp-growth) |
| | |

Italy And Crisis The credit crisis is accelerating. After the never ending problems with Greece, Europe has to extinguish another serious problem. Italy threatens that it will not be able to borrow from financial markets because it will be too expansive. Such problems in the fourth-largest economy could give a fatal blow to the Eurozone. Mr. Monti, the Italian Prime Minister, nicknamed “Super Mario” for his impressive track record as a European Commissioner, will face the daunting task of implementing a package of austerity measures designed to cut Italy’s 1.9 trillion euro debt and avert a Greek-style financial collapse which could imperil the entire Eurozone. The problem in Italy is not primarily its basic macro situation. Although the debt is very high at 1.9 trillion EUROS, France’s is 1.7 Trillion EUROS and Germany about the same -but, in the latter case, with the best macro economics data in the Euro area. Neither was Italy’s budget deficit the highest: in 2010, it was 4.6% of GDP vs 7.1% for France, 4.3% for Germany, and 6.2% for Eurozone’s average. Even Italy’s GDP growth was not the lowest, even if very adequate: 1.5% in 2010 (totally export driven, like Germany’s) vs. 0.1% in Spain, which in 2011 has huge and increasing unemployment and persistent important housing problems. At a press conference on Sunday evening Monty said he would work urgently to form the government and hoped he would pull Italy out of crisis. He said he will carry out the task with a great sense of responsibility and service toward this nation. He added that Italy must "heal its finances" and resume growth because today's leaders owe it to future generations.

The Main Problem As I mentioned above, Italy is Europe's fourth-largest economy; its bond market is the world's third largest. In a matter of no time, the liquidity in that market is drying up. And what's scary about it, that there may not be any way to rescue Italy if this spiral will continues. Without strong leadership, hopes for real reform in Italy are uncertain at best. Until Italy's politicians show they are truly taking the crisis seriously, markets will continue to punish Italian bonds (Yields on five-year Italian government bonds have already risen above the critical level of 7%. Above this critical level of the account already climbed a ten-year bond yields from two-year government securities. The latter, even briefly exceeded 8%! It is a sad record in the history of Eurozone. Already the 7% limit, according to experts, is considered to be the limit of sustainability.) And where does that take us? Italy can likely handle elevated borrowing costs for a while without too much trouble. The bigger issue is liquidity. Because Italian debt is so large, the government needs to constantly tap financial markets to refinance itself. The big problem hits when Italy can't do that anymore. Can Italy still get the funds it needs? We're about to get an answer to that question in coming days.

I have found a very interesting report of research firm Capital Economics, which has expressed about the Italian situation as follows: “Wednesday's surge in Italian government bond yields has catapulted the euro-zone crisis into a dangerous new phase. Precedents set by Greece and Ireland suggest the Rubicon has been crossed. If so, Italy's cost of borrowing could now climb much more sharply, effectively locking her out of the capital markets. Even though Italy runs a primary surplus, this outcome could still force her to turn to official creditors to roll over her debt. But while Italy is considered to be too big to fail, she may be too big to save unless there is a major change of attitude towards resolving the crisis. Things could be about to turn very ugly. “ (http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/11/10/italy%E2%80%99s-crisis-endgame-for-the-euro/) And if Italy does require a rescue, is that even possible? The Capital Economics economists estimate Italy could require a bailout as big as 700 billion euros ($950 billion). By comparison, the bailouts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal have so far only added up to $370 billion. And where would the money come from? The Eurozone rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, is unlikely to have that cash. What does that mean? Capital continues: “So who would save Italy's bacon if push came to shove? Core euro-zone economies are the obvious choice. But it remains to be seen whether they will put their money where their mouths are. If they do not, a disorderly default by Italy and her eventual exit from EMU could be on the cards.”
(http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/11/10/italy%E2%80%99s-crisis-endgame-for-the-euro/)

I tried to summarize the all of the essentials, but there are many similarities to other economic crisis. Unfortunately, it is a familiar story of debt fears leading to spending cuts, but spending cuts fail to prevent rising bond yields.

One issue which merits attention is “Why have bond yields increased so much in Italy when they have a lower budget deficit than the UK?” Poor Growth Prospects. Italy has a poor track record of economic growth in past few decades. This hints at structural deficiencies in the Italian economy, poor productivity growth, low levels of investment
Uncompetitive Lack of Strong Political Leadership Exports. Related to first point is the decline in Italian competitiveness. Costs have increased faster than Germany. But, being in the Euro, there is no option of devaluation to restore competitiveness and boost export demand.
Recession – Austerity packages pushing Italian economy back into recession, making it difficult to increase tax revenues.
Liquidity Fears – Lack of lender of last resort has left Italian bonds vulnerable to selling as markets fear Italy may experience a liquidity shortage. Italy’s fragile coalition is at risk of breaking up. You also get the feeling, many in Europe are reluctant to come to the aid of the scandal mired, Silvio Berlusconi.

Conclusion In a situation in which Italy is currently located, is difficult to establish long – term prediction. Italy currently approved reforms that serve to strengthen situation in that country. Italian parliament approved a new set of financial rules and economic reforms, which have to restore a confidence of the markets to the third largest country of Eurozone. Saving measures have to save 60 billion EUROS for the country. Until 2014 these measures have to achieve a balanced budget, reduce the high public debt, which is 120% of gross domestic product and these measures have to improve the performance of the Italian economy. Italian economy had annual growth in average only of 0, 75 percent over the past 15 years. The main measures include increasing in the value of added tax from 20% to 21% and freeze of salaries in the public sector by 2014. Parliament has also approved the age for retirement and it should be in 2026 up to 67 years. Rome has also strengthened measure for tax evasion, including a limit of the 2500 EUROS for the payment in cash. The government also envisages with a partial privatization of state enterprises and with the support of building highways through the tax deductions. High unemployment among the young Italians should help to reduce the full tax offset for companies that emploe graduates of secondary schools and universities.

Referencies

Books
Brierley, W., GORDON, C., RANDLESOME, C., Bruton, K., King, P. 1993.
Business Cultures in Europe, Second Edition. Butterworth-Heinemann, 1993. 390 p. ISBN 0750608722

Colander, D. 2007. Macroeconomics. McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2007. 576 p. ISBN 0073343668.

Emmott, B. 2012. Good Italy, Bad Italy: Why Italy Must Conquer Its Demons to Face the Future. Yale University Press, 2012. 304 p. ISBN 0300186304

Fratianni, M.., Spinelli, F. 2005. A Monetary History of Italy. Cambridge University Press, 2005. 324 p. ISBN 0521023459.

Modigliani, F. 1995. The Italian Economy: What Next?. Mcmillin Pub Llc, 1995. 208 p. ISBN 033362811X.

Articles
Italy [online]. 2012 [quot 2012-11-01]. Available online:

Italy’s Crisis: Endgame for the Euro? [online]. 2012 [quot 2012-11-01]. Available online:

Italy GDP Growth Rate [online]. 2012 [quot 2012-08-01]. Available online:

Italy and the IMF [online]. 2012 [quot 2012-08-01]. Available online: < http://www.imf.org/ external/country/ITA/index.htm>

Italy-national statistical data [online], 2012 [quot 2012-27-01], Available online:

OECD.StatExtracts [online]. 2012 [quot 2012-20-01]. Available online:

10 year bond yield [online], 2012 [quot 2012-20-01], Available online:

www.economicshelp.org, www.ecb.int, www.tradingeconomics.com, www.imf.org, www.curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com, www.oecd.or. -----------------------
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...Macroeconomic Picture of Agriculture sector in Indian Economy Theodore Schultz began his acceptance speech for the 1979 Nobel Prize in Economics observing: “Most of the people in the world are poor, so if we knew the economics of being poor we would know much of the economics that really matters. Most of the world's poor people earn their living from agriculture, so if we knew the economics of agriculture we would know much of the economics of being poor” (Shultz, 1979). Existing empirical evidence on the impact of macroeconomic variables on agriculture remains mixed and inconclusive. This paper re-examines the dynamic relationship between monetary policy variables and agricultural prices using alternative vector auto regression (VAR) type model specifications. Directed acyclic graph theory is proposed as an alternative modeling approach to supplement existing modeling methods. Similar to results in other studies, this study Â’s findings show that over the time period analyzed (1975–2000), changes to money supply as a monetary policy tool had little or no impact on agricultural prices. The primary macroeconomic policy instrument that affects agricultural prices is the exchange rate, which is shown to be directly linked to interest rate, a source of monetary policy shock. The Transmission of Exchange Rate Changes to Agricultural Prices (July 2009) provides empirical evidence that price and exchange rate transmission for agricultural products is low in most developing...

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