...of economics or politics, is that Malthus is the surname of a man, who, a couple of hundred years back, said that man, sooner or later, universally, will run up against himself; that the population of mankind will eventually outstrip man's ability to supply himself with the necessities of life. The Malthusian doctrine, as stated in "Essay on the Principle of Population," was expressed as follows: "population increases in a geometric ratio, while the means of subsistence increases in an arithmetic ratio." Well, that seems plain enough, and perfectly understandable, if there is too many people and not enough food, then, certainly, there is going to be problems. Malthus developed his theory, at least to this extent: that left alone, no matter all the problems short of worldwide catastrophe, humankind will survive, as, nature has a natural way to cut population levels: "crime, disease, war, and vice," being, the necessary checks on population." This proposition, as was made by Malthus in 1798, was to cause quite a public stir, then, and yet today. The English economist Thomas Robert Malthus, b. Feb. 14, 1766, d. Dec. 29, 1834, was one of the earliest thinkers to study population growth as it relates to general human welfare. After studying philosophy, mathematics, and theology at Cambridge 1784-88, Malthus took holy orders 1790 and became 1805 professor of history and political economy at East India College near London. Surviving portraits and descriptions by contemporaries...
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...Chaotic Growth with the Logistic Model of P.-F. Verhulst Hugo Pastijn Department of Mathematics, Royal Military Academy B-1000 Brussels, Belgium Hugo.Pastijn@rma.ac.be Summary. Pierre-Fran¸ois Verhulst was born 200 years ago. After a short biograc phy of P.-F. Verhulst in which the link with the Royal Military Academy in Brussels is emphasized, the early history of the so-called “Logistic Model” is described. The relationship with older growth models is discussed, and the motivation of Verhulst to introduce different kinds of limited growth models is presented. The (re-)discovery of the chaotic behaviour of the discrete version of this logistic model in the late previous century is reminded. We conclude by referring to some generalizations of the logistic model, which were used to describe growth and diffusion processes in the context of technological innovation, and for which the author studied the chaotic behaviour by means of a series of computer experiments, performed in the eighties of last century by means of the then emerging “micro-computer” technology. 1 P.-F. Verhulst and the Royal Military Academy in Brussels In the year 1844, at the age of 40, when Pierre-Fran¸ois Verhulst on November c 30 presented his contribution to the “M´moires de l’Acad´mie” of the young e e Belgian nation, a paper which was published the next year in “tome XVIII” with the title: “Recherches math´matiques sur la loi d’accroissement de la e population” (mathematical investigations of the law of...
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...Thomas Malthus warned that population growth would exceed resource growth, leading to catastrophic checks on overpopulation. This would occur because population grew exponentially while food supply grew arithmetically. * Without population control, the population would be reduced by catastrophes such as famine or war according to Malthusian theory. * As a solution, Malthus urged moral restraint: people must practice abstinence, sterilization, and have criminal punishments for those who have more/">more children than they can support. * Malthusian catastrophes refer to naturally ocurring checks on population growth such as famine, disease, or war. * These Malthusian catastrophes have not taken place on a global scale due to progress in agricultural technology. However, many argue that future pressures on food production, combined with threats such as global warming, make overpopulation a still more serious threat in the future. Early in the 19th century, the English scholar Reverend Thomas Malthus published "An Essay on the Principle of Population. " In it, he argued that overpopulation was the cause of many of the social ills observed in the industrial societies of Europe: poverty, malnutrition, and disease could all be attributed to overpopulation. According to Malthus, this was a mathematical inevitability. Malthus observed that, while resources tended to grow arithmetically, populations exhibit exponential growth. Thus, if left unrestricted, human populations...
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...Many things threaten our world: war, climate change, and poverty are among them. While many people are concerned with our economy, our oil dependency, and dwindling food and water supplies, others acknowledge the simple reason as to why we are faced with these issues – the Earth is overpopulated. Exponential growth has been seen in our world population over the past two centuries, with a grand total of 7 billion (6.97 as of my last essay) people roaming the Earth today (Tomkin, 2011). Mankind has ventured a long way to reach the position we are in currently, and in this essay I will explain how we got here and where we might be headed, citing examples of previous efforts to combat overpopulation. I then will suggest my own solution to the problem, and then give detailed analysis as to why my method should be implemented. Over the course of mankind’s time on this planet, the population has changed rather drastically. Since long before the birth of Christ, thousands of years ago, the Earth had held a stable number of approximately one million people (Zhang, et al, 2011). The stability was vastly due to the scavenger lifestyle of early humans, a world where only the strong survived. Throughout the Middle Ages population increased to an estimated 250-500 million people, yet took hard hits due to disease and plague (Rosling, 2010). The flux in population was due to the invention of agriculture, which at this time was the sole reason that Earth’s carrying capacity had increased...
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...Business Overpopulation & Overconsumption As a species, we tend not to talk too much about population growth, but we all know it is there. Modern man first showed up on earth over 50,000 years ago, and by 1850 we had reproduced to such amount that we reached the 1 Billion people mark. The next billion took only 100 years, compared to over 50 thousand years for the first one. In 2011 world population reached 7 billion. According to the Population Institute, which focuses on raising awareness about overpopulation, we add around 220,000 people per day, which amounts to around 80 million people per year, or 1 billion every 12 years. Currently, for every two people who die, four more are born. Many experts argue that population growth will cap at around 10-11 billion by the end of the century, and therefore we shouldn’t concern ourselves too much with this issue. This may very well be true, however, 11 billion people leading the lifestyle of a middle class citizen in a developed country is nowhere near sustainable, and this is certainly a big cause for concern. Therefore, as humans we need to define what is the underlying problem and how do we tackle future challenges. There are plenty of arguments for and against overpopulation. Many argue that population controls have to be applied in order to stop grown, such as China’s one child policy. Others say that population growth is unstoppable and therefore we have to focus more on how we deal with it rather than stopping it. One of...
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...1 Population Growth William DiCarlo SCI/230 November 12, 2012 Casey Bulaclac 2 Population growth has increased rapidly due to the vast advancements in food production, medical technology, and sanitation infrastructure. Human births have drastically outpaced human deaths to a level which is unprecedented in human history(Petryni, 2012). It has become very important for individuals to understand this phenomenon of human growth by understanding the two main growth curves that are practiced by scientists. The first human growth is the exponential growth curve. With this curve, scientists believe that the population growth will remain fairly constant and the population will increase by double in a short period of time(Petryni, 2012). The reasoning behind this curve is that it plots an output of an exponential equation, hence the name exponential growth(Petryni, 2012). The second human growth curve is the logistic growth curve. Scientists that study this curve predict that the population will eventually level off as the growth rate approaches zero(Petryni, 2012). Scientists call this human growth curve the S- curve because of its strong resemblance to a large capital S when plotted correctly. The population growth rate does have a significant effect on our population. The more people brought into this world creates a strong demand for other resources. The demand for food, water, and shelter...
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...3. What is carrying capacity? Carrying capacity is the maximum, equilibrium number of organisms of a particular species that can be supported indefinitely in a given environment. 4. What types of organisms are more likely to follow an exponential growth curve (refer to week 5 textbook readings and lecture notes)? 5. What types of organisms are more likely to follow a logistic growth curve (refer to week 4 textbook readings and lecture notes)? Start EcoBeaker Virtual Labs and load the “Isle Royale” lab. Just like with the Keystone Predator lab it is recommended you print out and fill in your answers on the work book, then just type the requested answers onto this assignment. Exercise I Make sure you follow directions carefully. Insert your workbook answers below. 5.1. What is the approximate size of the stable moose population? 720 5.2. What was the maximum size the moose population attained? 970 5. The moose population grew fastest when it was a. Smallest b. medium-sized c. largest 6. Based on your graph, what is the carrying capacity of moose on the island? 720 5. I am not requiring you to dissect the logistic growth equation. If you feel...
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...HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH SCI/230 The human population started off slow until the beginning of the 1900s when the industrialization of the world changed mortality rates. This is evident by the logistic growth curve of the population from year one to the 1800s, when the population reached the 1 billion mark. The population did not grow rapidly at this time and it actually remained flat for almost 1500 years at the beginning. The population then grew rapidly as advancements in medicine and nutrition in both Europe and the United States allowed humans to take control of their population's growth rate. This exponential growth curve showed that the population continued to increase at a steady rate as births rose and mortality rates declined. This exponential increase saw the population explode from 2 billion in 1927 to 3 billion in 1960. After this exponential increase the developed nations of the world developed contraceptives to control birth rates and the population growth declined to almost zero. This has not been the case in developing nations however as death rates have dropped but high birth rates have continued. This increase in population has created a large ecological deficit. In the United States alone the population requires twice the land and resources than what is available. This has caused humans to invade other habitats and force animals to either relocate or become extinct. This is creating the problem as humans face overpopulation and overconsumption...
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...Isle Royale Introduction The Wolves and Moose of Isle Royale If you were to travel on Route 61 to the farthest reaches of Minnesota and stand on the shore of Lake Superior looking east, on a clear day you would see Isle Royale. This remote, forested island sits isolated and uninhabited 15 miles off of the northern shore of Lake Superior, just south of the border between Canada and the USA. If you had been standing in a similar spot by the lake in the early 1900s, you may have witnessed a small group of hardy, pioneering moose swimming from the mainland across open water, eventually landing on the island. These fortunate moose arrived to find a veritable paradise, devoid of predators and full of grass, shrubs, and trees to eat. Over the next 30 years, the moose population exploded, reaching several thousand individuals at its peak. The moose paradise didn’t last for long, however. Lake Superior rarely freezes. In the 1940s, however, conditions were cold and calm enough for an ice bridge to form between the mainland and Isle Royale. A small pack of wolves found the bridge and made the long trek across it to the island. Once on Isle Royale, the hungry wolves found their own paradise — a huge population of moose. The moose had eaten most of the available plant food, and many of them were severely undernourished. These slow-moving, starving moose were easy prey for wolves. The Isle Royale Natural Experiment The study of moose and wolves on Isle Royale began in 1958 and...
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...Effects of over population in Mexico City There are parts of the world that have an alarming overpopulation rate, one of these locations is Mexico city which is located in the Federal District, Capital of the Country of Mexico. Mexico City's enormous population continues to rapidly increase every day. With approximately 20 million residents; up from 9 million only 20 years ago, Mexico City is considered the most populous urban center on earth. There are many people in the country of Mexico who move to Mexico city because they feel that there are better life and employment opportunities there, however there are also hundreds of people that are born there every year and these factors contribute even more to its overcrowding and overpopulation. Mexico City has a poor living habitat because it is located in the Valley of Mexico, and is highly vulnerable to volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. These natural disasters have caused much destruction making these grounds to be weak and dry, never the less the city is rapidly diminishing water supply which adds a danger problem to the overcrowding of its population. Once its water supply is gone, the only way to receive water will be to transport it from across the mountains. Not only does the city have to pipe water in, but it also has to pipe the sewage out of waste-filled areas. This would be a very expensive undertaking and could cost Mexico City a large amount of money. In...
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...Sixteen-Page Economic History of the World He may therefore be justly numbered among the benefactors of mankind, who contracts the great rules of life into short sentences, that may be easily impressed on the memory, and taught by frequent recollection to recur habitually to the mind. —Samuel Johnson, Rambler No. 175 (November 19, 1751) The basic outline of world economic history is surprisingly simple. Indeed it can be summarized in one diagram: figure 1.1. Before 1800 income per person—the food, clothing, heat, light, and housing available per head—varied across societies and epochs. But there was no upward trend. A simple but powerful mechanism explained in this book, the Malthusian Trap, ensured that short term gains in income through technological advances were inevitably lost through population growth. Thus the average person in the world of 1800 was no better off than the average person of 100,000 BC. Indeed in 1800 the bulk of the world population was poorer than their remote ancestors. The lucky denizens of wealthy societies such as eighteenth-century England or the Netherlands managed a material lifestyle equivalent to that of the Stone Age. But the vast swath of humanity in East and South Asia, particularly in China and Japan, eked out a living under conditions probably significantly poorer than those of cavemen. The quality of life also failed to improve on any other observable dimension. Life expectancy was no higher in 1800 than for hunter-gatherers: thirty to thirty-five...
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...President and Fellows of Harvard College Working Papers Center for International Development at Harvard University Population and Environment Theodore Panayotou Abstract The past fifty years have witnessed two simultaneous and accelerating trends: an explosive growth in population and a steep increase in resource depletion and environmental degradation. These trends have fueled the debate on the link between population and environment that began 150 years earlier, when Malthus voiced his concern about the ability of the earth and its finite resources to feed an exponentially growing population. The purpose of this study is to review the literature on population and environment and to identify the main strands of thought and the assumptions that lie behind them. The author begins with a review of the historical perspective. He then reviews and assesses the evidence on the relationship between population and environment, focusing on selected natural and environmental resources: land use, water use, local pollution, deforestation and climate change. The author also reviews selected recent macro and micro perspectives. The new macro perspective introduces the environment-income relationship and examines the role of population growth and density in mediating this relationship. The new micro perspective introduces the close relationship between poverty and environmental degradation, also examining the roles of gender in decision-making and the role of children as economic assets in fertility...
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...PERSPECTIVES ON POPULATION GROWTH Based on the current trend, there will be a total to about 9.2 billion people on the earth by mid-century, fuelled by the birth of 220000 children a day and falling mortality rates (Population Institute, 2014). This estimate raises questions about the future of humanity and the planet we inhabit. The debate about an optimal size for human population is one that has waged over the years. The question is fundamentally about sustainability; whether the resources that drive our lives can be sustained indefinitely can support humanity in the long term. We operate on the assumption that, on a finite planet, nothing physical can grow indefinitely. As our population grows, the fewer resources there are for each of us and members of other species with which we share the planet. Because of the finite nature of the resources and the ability of our planet to provide us infinite resources, we need to, carefully consider some aspects of our existence, like our consumption, acceptable living standards, what technologies make best use of the resources available and explore ways to preserve the ecosystems on which we depend. The primary concern regarding rapid global population growth includes aggravated poverty, starvation, water scarcity, political & social instability and depletion of natural resources. How will we feed 9.2 billion people when high food prices and the global economic recession have pushed 100 million more people than last year into...
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...Agriculture, services and manufacturing industries play a vital role in the development of the Indian economy. The IT outsourcing, software and call center/ BPO industries, in particular, have helped skyrocket India’s economic development in recent years. Economic development in India still depends on the various sectors that constitute the Indian economy – agriculture, services and manufacturing industries. India is rated as one of the top economies in the world in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) of the gross domestic product (GDP) by leading financial entities of the world, such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the CIA (as referenced in the CIA World Factbook). As far as agriculture is concerned, India is the second largest in volume of output. Certain related sectors of agriculture have played a major role in the development of the Indian economy by providing employment to a number of people in the forestry, fishing and logging industries. In 2009, the agricultural sector contributed 17.5% to the entire GDP, and more than 50% of the total labor force working in India is employed in the agricultural sector. Production volume has gone up in Indian agriculture at a consistent rate since the 1950s. Much of this improvement can be attributed to the five-year plans that were established for the development of Indian agriculture. Developments in irrigation processes, as well as various modern technologies used have contributed to the...
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...and Fellows of Harvard College Working Papers Center for International Development at Harvard University Population and Environment Theodore Panayotou Abstract The past fifty years have witnessed two simultaneous and accelerating trends: an explosive growth in population and a steep increase in resource depletion and environmental degradation. These trends have fueled the debate on the link between population and environment that began 150 years earlier, when Malthus voiced his concern about the ability of the earth and its finite resources to feed an exponentially growing population. The purpose of this study is to review the literature on population and environment and to identify the main strands of thought and the assumptions that lie behind them. The author begins with a review of the historical perspective. He then reviews and assesses the evidence on the relationship between population and environment, focusing on selected natural and environmental resources: land use, water use, local pollution, deforestation and climate change. The author also reviews selected recent macro and micro perspectives. The new macro perspective introduces the environment-income relationship and examines the role of population growth and density in mediating this relationship. The new micro perspective introduces the close relationship between poverty and environmental degradation, also examining the roles of gender in decision-making and the role of children as economic assets in fertility...
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