INDIAN MANUFACTURING: OVERVIEW AND PROSPECTS

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CONTENTS
1. 1.1 1.2 1.3 2. 2.1 2.2 3. INDIAN MANUFACTURING SECTOR: AN OVERVIEW ......................................................... 5 Role of manufacturing in the Indian economy................................................................... 5 The sub-sectors that stand out in India's manufacturing sector .................................... 6 Manufacturing sector's recent growth spurt: Clues from IIP.......................................... 7 TAPPING THE GLOBAL MARKET ........................................................................................... 9 India's growing manufacturing exports .............................................................................. 9 The main export markets: US, Western Europe, and the Middle East ............................ 12

INCREASING COMPETITIVENESS OF INDIAN MANUFACTURING .................................... 13 3.1 3.2 3.3 Sector has an edge in the global arena ............................................................................. 13 Encouraging research and fostering innovation .............................................................. 15 Government support for developing a skilled workforce ................................................ 17

4.

CURRENT TRENDS IN INDIAN MANUFACTURING .............................................................. 17 4.1 4.2 4.3 India emerging as a global manufacturing hub................................................................ 17 Indian manufacturing growth outshining peers in the BRICs ........................................ 19 Interesting trends in key manufacturing sub-sectors ..................................................... 20

5.

FACTORS DRIVING THE INDIAN MANUFACTURING GROWTH STORY ............................. 20 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 Fortification in demand enabling sustainable growth of sector...................................... 20 Technology development initiatives ................................................................................... 23 Encouraging Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) .................................................................. 23 The National Manufacturing Competitiveness Council (NMCC) ..................................... 26

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CONTENTS
6. 6.1 6.2 6.3 7. OPPORTUNITIES IN INDIAN MANUFACTURING ................................................................ 26 A lucrative domestic market ............................................................................................... 26 Manufacturing off-shoring and India: An example from auto components ................. 28 Emergence of a manufacturing export hub ...................................................................... 29 ..................................................................................................................... 31

CONCLUSION

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
India's manufacturing sector is on a high growth trajectory. As targeted by the National Manufacturing Competitiveness Council (NMCC), it is set to contribute 25 per cent to the GDP by 2025 compared to the current share of nearly 16 per cent. Notably, the sector contributed 66 per cent to the nation's exports in FY11 and has been strengthening at a CAGR of 20 per cent in the last five years. The competitiveness that the sector commands in the global arena is driving its growth. India ranks second in the world as per the 2010 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index (GMCI) prepared by the US Council on Competitiveness, and Deloitte. As per the same source, India would maintain its second rank and continue to dominate the global manufacturing sector even after five years. India has set benchmarks in the international market with respect to quality in manufacturing. The country is currently second only to Japan in hosting companies awarded for quality excellence. The India advantage is favouring growth in the sector as international players such as Hyundai, Nokia, Samsung and Airbus are focussing on setting up manufacturing facilities in the country. Interestingly, India's growth in the manufacturing sector overshadows other BRIC members. This can be associated to the strength in the Indian domestic market. The fundamentals of the economy have emerged as the driving force for growth in this sector. As per the IMF, Indian economy is forecasted to expand at a CAGR of 9.2 per cent over 2010-15. A McKinsey report projects India's middle class to expand 12 times and urbanisation to increase to 38 per cent from 29 per cent over 2005 -2025. Consequently, the country would emerge as the world's fifth largest consumer market by 2025. India considers growth in the manufacturing sector important for the overall development of the economy. The government is extending support through training programmes in order to ensure availability of skilled workforce. Also, measures have been introduced to encourage FDI in the sector. As a result, India was ranked second in the world as per the 2012 FDI Confidence Index prepared by A.T. Kearney. The government has also set up NMCC to increase the sector's global competitiveness through various measures such as setting up of National Manufacturing and Investment Zones (NMIZs). Furthermore, the government is offering various subsidies and incentives for technological upgradation in each subsector of the manufacturing activity along with special schemes focussed on micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) for ensuring an overall development of the sector. Thus, growth in the domestic market as well as traction from the export-driven demand has enabled India to evolve on the global map as a key manufacturing hub.

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1. INDIAN MANUFACTURING SECTOR: AN OVERVIEW 1.1 Role of manufacturing in the Indian economy

Manufacturing holds a key position in the Indian economy, accounting for nearly 16 per cent of real GDP in FY12 and employing about 12.0 per cent of India‟s labour force. Growth in the sector has been matching the strong pace in overall GDP growth over the past few years. For example, while real GDP expanded at a CAGR of 8.4 per cent over FY05-FY12, growth in the manufacturing sector was marginally higher at around 8.5 per cent over the same period. Consequently, its share in the economy has marginally increased during this time – to 15.4 per cent from 15.3 per cent. Growth however has remained below that of services, an issue that has not escaped the attention of policy makers in the country. Strong growth has been accompanied by a change in the nature of the sector – evolving from a public sector dominated set-up to a more private enterprisedriven one with global ambitions. In fact, according to UNIDO, India (with the exception of China) is currently the largest producer of textiles, chemical products, pharmaceuticals, basic metals, general machinery and equipment, and electrical machinery. In the coming year, the sector‟s importance to the domestic and global economy is set to increase even further as a combination of supply-side advantages, policy initiatives, and private sector efforts set India on the path to a global manufacturing hub.
Exhibit 1 Size of the manufacturing sector in India
9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 16.4 16.2 16.0 15.8 15.6 15.4 15.2 15.0 14.8 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 Manufacturing sector (size in INR billion, constant prices) Share in real GDP (%)

Source: RBI, Aranca Research

Indian Manufacturing: Overview and Prospects

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Exhibit 2 Growth in real GDP, manufacturing, and services (%)
15

%
13 11 9 7 5 3 FY06 FY07 GDP FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Services FY12

Manufacturing

Source: RBI, Aranca Research

1.2

The sub-sectors that stand out in India‟s manufacturing sector

Among sub-sectors in manufacturing, the top five are food products, basic metals, rubber and petrochemicals, chemicals, and electrical machinery. Together they account for over 66.0 per cent of total revenues in manufacturing. However, these verticals rely primarily on domestic demand for a major part of their revenues.

Indian Manufacturing: Overview and Prospects

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Exhibit 3 Use-based classification of India’s manufacturing sector

Manufacturing

Basic goods

Capital goods
Commercial vehicles Auto components Electric motors Railway locomotives Textile machinery Electric generators Machine tools Ship building and repairing Complete tractors Diesel engines Wagons Motor starters and contractors Broad gauge passenger carriers Boilers

Intermediate goods
Cotton yarn Petroleum refinery products Jute and mesta textiles Giant tyres Tin metal containers Bolts and nuts Plywood commercial Paints, enamel and varnishes

Consumer goods
Paper and paper boards Cotton cloth Sugar Tea Wheat flour/maida Tetracycline Artificial leather cloth Cigarettes Beer Vanaspati/edible hydrogenated oil Penicillin Soaps Phone instrument Wristwatches

Electricity Coal Finished Steel Fertilisers Cement Steel casting Pipes and tubes (other than spun) Stamping and forging Sulphuric acid Caustic soda Heavy structural Aluminium ingots Copper (cathode)

Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Aranca Research

1.3

Manufacturing sector‟s recent growth spurt: Clues from IIP

Manufacturing accounts for a large chunk of Indian industry, a fact borne out by the sector‟s 75.5 per cent share in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP). With CAGR of 8.7 per cent during FY05-FY12(FY 12 includes data from April2011 to Feb12), the manufacturing sector helped the overall industrial sector get over low growth in the other two sub-segments of IIP, Mining and Quarrying (14.2 weight age in IIP) and Electricity (10.3 weightage in IIP) witnessed CAGR of 3.4 per cent and 5.8 per cent respectively. On an even more encouraging note, the manufacturing sector has strengthened in FY11 compared to the previous fiscal – an analysis of 121 sub-sectors by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) reveals that only 5 of them recorded declines in FY11 compared to 25 in FY10. At the same time, key sub-sectors like machine tools, ball and roller bearings, textile machinery, and utility vehicles recorded either excellent (above 20 per cent) or high (10-20 per cent) growth, thereby adding to value creation in manufacturing.

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Exhibit 4 CAGR of IIP (FY05-FY12); axis headings also indicate shares in IIP
10.3% Electricity 5.8%

14.2% Mining & Quarrying

3.4%

75.5% Manufacturing

8.7%

IIP 0% 2% 4% 6%

7.8% 8% 10%

Source: Central Statistical Organisation, Aranca Research Note: Base: 2004-05 =100

Exhibit 5 CAGR (FY05-FY12) of key sub-sectors within manufacturing (IIP)
Manufacturing (Total) Machinery and equipment n.e.c. Motor vehicles# Wood and products of wood* Food products and beverages Textiles Basic metals 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 4.2% 9.7% 10% 12% 14% 16% 6.7% 6.9% 8.7% 12.9% 14.4%

Source: Central Statistical Organisation, Aranca Research Note: * inlcudes cork products, articles of straw & plating materials; excludes furniture; # includes trailers & semi-trailers

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Exhibit 6 Growth trend of 121 manufacturing sub-sectors

Growth Excellent (>20%) High (10-20%) Moderate (0-10%) Negative (