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Merck & Company Evaluating a Drug Licensing Opportunity

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| |Page |
|1. Executive Summary…………………………………………………………… |1 |
|2. Main Report…………………………………………………………………….. |2 |
|3. Bibliography…………………………………………………………………….. |6 |

1. Executive Summary

In 2002 the patents for the most popular drugs which generated $5.7 billion in worldwide sales would be expired. In order to anticipate the loss of sales, it is recommended to update the product portfolio by investing in the development of patented new products.

LAB proposed 17 years exclusivity on Davanrik, a substance which has probability to be efficacious for depression or weight loss or both indications. Up to now LAB has completed preclinical testing and entering clinical testing. The clinical testing will take about 7 years which is divided into 3 phases.

Based on the analysis given on the report, the cost on Phase I will come up to $30 million and the Phase II will be $25 million. The outcome of Phase III varies and depends on the result on Phase II. The expected outcomes are: Davanrik is 10% effective for depression only, 15% for weight loss only and 5% for both indications.

Should Davanrik efficacious only for depression, the probability of success is 85% and if it is only for weight loss, the chance of success is 75%. However FDA requires an intensive research in case Davanrik is efficacious for both indications. The total expected cost on Phase III $132 million. Once FDA approved Davanrik, the expected launching cost is $332 million with expected PV in ten

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