...evaluates the infiuences of the impacts of causal factors, key economic assumptions and macroeconomic linkages on the outcome of these studies. A quantité regression analysis is also performed on the meta sample, to evaluate the robustness of those key factors throughout the full range of macro findings. Results of these analyses suggest that study results are strongly driven by data inputs, economic assumptions and modeling approaches. However, they are sometimes affected in counterintuitive ways. 1. INTRODUCTION The macroeconomic impacts of climate change mitigation policies are controversial among both scholars and the policy-making community. Results range from predictions of severe economic harm to significant overall economic gains. Given the unresolved nature of this debate, this paper seeks to shed light on it by evaluating a wide range of macroeconomic studies through a metaanalytic approach. Meta-analysis is a method for evaluating a cross-section of studies on a given topic, and evaluating the impacts of assumptions, input variables and modeling approaches on the overall findings of the studies. In essence, meta-analysis is a study of studies (Borenstein et al., 2009; Lipsey and Wilson 2001). The Energy Joumai, Vol. 32, No. 2. Copyright ©2011 by the IAEE. All rights reserved. * ** Corresponding author. Research Professor, School of Policy, Planning and Development (SPPD), University of Southern California (USC), Los Angeles, CA 90089. E-mail: adamzros@sppd...
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...Obama care is job killer? Not at All. The original article by A.S. Blinder in D. Progovac words Many conservatives and opponents of Obama care claim that Affordable Care Act (ACA) is job killer. This article is using modeling and current facts to conclude Obama care is neither job killer nor deadweight pushed on society by Obama. Of course any modeling is prone to possible erroneous conclusions, especially in social sciences, like economy is: economist also can’t run controlled experiments so their market simulation models produce imperfect estimates. Economist model labor market, using two major laws: law of demand and law supply. To model market economist will describe how these two law function for particular market. In the case of Obama Care it is necessary to understand how law of supply and law of demand, for labor market, are influenced by ACA. Because ACA subsides are given to lower paid workers modeling the demand and supply of this labor for segment of is necessary for any conclusion on the market influence by ACA. The main source of data analyzed in this article are finding by Congressional Budget Office (CBO). According to Congressional Budget Office model, the ACA is influencing labor supply, while demand stays unchanged. According to CBO report ACA influences actually reduction of labor supply and in particular of lower paid working segment labor supply. At this point the first question would be if that fact is to be believed and second question...
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...U.S. Military Spending and its impact on the Economy’s GDP Matthew Magana Abstract This paper examines whether increases in military spending have a positive or negative impact on the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The paper focuses on the three North American economies: Canada, Mexico and the United States as models to develop a case. It will also illustrate the utilization of multiple economic tools to produce variable outcomes to analyze the full spectrum of economics. It will also discuss the multiple statistical models such as Granger causality and Vector autoregression and the asymmetric results produced. Increased U.S. Military Spending and its impact on the Economy Given the long-accepted, theoretical direct relationship between investment and economic growth, if defense spending has a negative impact on investment, then it would seem reasonable that defense spending would have an adverse impact on economic growth. This was exactly the findings of two studies published in the seventies, zymanski (1973) and Lee (1973). Some studies attribute the negative effect of defense spending on economic growth to reduced investment. Another study argues that defense spending restricts export growth and economic growth because military expenditures compete for the same resources used in the production of exports. Which may also be a understood trade off for military spending vs. export and economic growth. However, other studies were unable to find any stable...
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...18 MANUFACTURING not Just a cog in the wheel manuFacturing excellence is increasingly guiDeD By the usage oF aDvanceD analytical tools that also equip Firms to Deal with challenges relateD to innovations, green practices anD regulatory compliance N S Bala Senior Vice President, Manufacturing & Hi-Tech Globally, manufacturing has become a key talking point in government and industry circles in view of its critical role in GDP growth and sustainable development strategies. However, the sector’s share of GDP has declined considerably over the years in advanced and emerging economies alike owing to the rapid expansion of the services sector. Today, manufacturing is staging a strong comeback, powered by renewed policy focus, adoption of new technologies and intelligent systems, market demand for higher-end manufactures, and rise of new global markets. MANUFACTURING 19 Certain manufacturing segments are also adopting a services approach, which is a distinct breakaway from conventional manufacturing delivery. For example, Xerox is leasing out machines as a service. This approach spells a paradigm shift in the manufacturing sector’s strategic thinking. Over the next decade, manufacturing competitiveness, growth and development will increasingly hinge on the quality of inputs that go into the strategic planning. Towards this end, the importance of analytics can hardly be overstated. Analytics locates itself in the data that is related to the particular business. With the...
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...， ” ， ， ” 。 1985-2007 GDP （EKC ）， 。 Eviews6.0 EXCELE ， ， 、 ， 。 。 ； 。 。 （ ： （EKC ） ， ）。 ， GDP ， ， ， 。 ， ， 。 ， 1 ， ， ， ” 。 。 “ ， ， ， ， [ ； ： “ ， ， ” 。 U ， 1985-2007 、 1 EKC ， 。 （ ： — —— ] ： 08XNG020 ） 。 08 08 。 ： zhouyamin2007@yahoo.com.cn ； ： - 80 - 《 》 2010 1 、 ， 20 60 Chenery Syrquin （1975） ， 。 、 ， （Chenery et al. ， 1986）。 ： ； ， ， ， ， （Grossman & Krueger ， 1995）。 。 ， 。 ， “ ” （ （Threshold Point ） 。 ， ， ， 、 ， ）。 、 、 、 ： 。 ， “ ）， （ ， （Berkerman ， 1992）。 （EKC ）。 ” ： “ ）。 ” ， ， （ Turning Point ） ： 、 ， ； ， ， ， ， Grossman ， Krueger 42 U ， EKC EKC 。 20 90 ， EKC 。 EKC （Stern ， 1998； Ekins ， 1997； Dinda ， 2004 ， “ 、 EKC 。 David （ 2001） 2 100 E 22 U OECD ， Y 。 ） ， ， ， ） ， U ” △ （ E/Y） =a+b 100 Y=a+ N N △ （lnE/Y ） +c△ （lnE/Y ） Inmaculade （ 2004） blnX+c （lnX） +d （lnX） 。 。 ， — —— ” ， 2 3 （ 1975-1998 ， X （ Y Pezzey （1989） ： Opschoor （1990） ， U ， ， “ 。 ， （ ， 2005， 2006； ， ， “ 。 ： ， ， “ ” “ ” ， 2006； — —— N ， 2006）。 2 t （2006） 3 t 1986-2003 lnEt=a1+a2lnYt+a3lnY +a4lnY +ut 。 。 ， U” ， GDP ， 。 - 81 - 《 （2007） ， ， 》 2010 1 VAR 1986-2003 、 “ ” GDP ， ， ， GDP 、 （2007） 。 。 “ 、 ” “ ” “- ” U ” ” “ 、 ， 、 EKC ， 。 “ U” 。 “ “ 、 、 U” 、 ， ， ， 。 。 ， 。 。 ， 《 》、 《 》 《 》， 。 ， ， 。 ， 。 ， ， 。 。 ， N 、 U 1985-2007 7 ： 。 GDP ， x， ， 。 y lnyt=β4...
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...of International Finance at the University of Strathclyde (1992-2004). REPEC (Research Papers in Economics), the body which provides a ranking of all economists in the world, shows that Ronald MacDonald, Adam Smith Professor of Political Economy, is ranked in the top 5% (at number 29) in the world in the field of International Finance. His main areas of research are applied macroeconomics, financial economics and international finance. He has published over 100 refereed journal articles on topics as diverse as the determination of government expenditure and fiscal deficits, the determination of bond yields and stock prices, and the economics of exchange rates. Most of his recent publications have been in the latter area and have involved modeling exchange rate movements in terms of macroeconomic fundamentals, such as money supplies and interest rates, and producing measures of equilibrium exchange rates. He has acted as a consultant to various international organizations, such as the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission, a variety of central banks, including the European Central Bank, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Monetary Authority of Singapore, as well as a number of leading financial institutions. He started his career as...
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...have some problems about the financial situation in the future. When we focus on the food sector in Turkey, we see that Turkey has started to be an effective player in the world food and beverage market every passing day. At the same time Turkey is ranked at 7th biggest agriculture country with the 62 billion dollars of agricultural revenue. Consumers have become more conscious about well-balanced and healthy nutrition. Along with this developments and changes leads to improvement of the food and beverage industry. Food and Drink Industry Associations of Turkey determine their food and beverage export targets as 40 billion dollars for 2023. Food industry is the one of the biggest industry in Turkey with about 280 billion dollars share in GDP. Food industry has 40.000 businesses and over 400.000 employees. Food sector has also 4.4 billion dollars foreign trade surplus and showed 7.2 % growth. 2. PRELIMINARY DATA ANALYSIS 3.1. Time Series...
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...ABOUT THE AGENCY The Agency Now Modeling Agency is the model and talent agency that is behind most of the advertisements you see in magazines and on television. The brands they have represented include RHB, KFC, Firefly Airways, Habib Jewels, Loreal, Proton and many others. They have also supplied models for fashion events you may have heard of such as Men's Fashion Week, Toy Watch, Hermes, Poney etc. Founded in 2008 by Sebastian Cheah, Now Modeling Agency has evolved into a prominent name in the Fashion, Modeling and Advertising industry. They were having received great praise and appreciation from top industry professionals, and establishing an almost cult-like following of new and established models. It was not long before word spread to other ASEAN countries, and offers started flooding in for foreign assignments. Now Modeling Agency also list at the top modeling agency in Malaysia. The Services Now Modeling Agency is a one-of-a-kind, full-service modeling agency, specializing in not only model and talent management, but also model training and development, event organization, casting services, and provision of on-ground promoters, just to name a few. Every assignment is unique – they each bear a distinctive creative vision and entail specific demands or requirements. When Now Modeling Agency undertakes an assignment, their main focus is to materialize the client's vision, not just market their talents and they also dedicate all their resources to support their client...
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...Kochanski This version: 2012/12/23 _________________________________________________________________________________________ Abstract The intention of this paper is to review research on lapse in life insurance and to outline potential new areas of research in this field. We consider theoretical lapse rate models as well as empirical research on life insurance lapse and provide a classification of these two streams of research. More than 50 theoretical and empirical papers from this important field of research are reviewed. Challenges for lapse rate modeling, lapse risk mitigation techniques, and possible trends in future lapse behavior are discussed. The risks arising from lapse are of high economic importance. As such, lapsation is of interest not only to academics, but is also highly relevant for the industry, regulators, and policymakers. JEL classification: G22; G28 Keywords: Lapse; Surrender; Lapse Modeling; Life Insurance _________________________________________________________________________________________ 1. Introduction Today’s insurance policies allow policyholders to choose among a large number of options that can significantly influence the extent of the insurer’s liabilities (see Bauer et al., 2006; Gatzert, 2009; Kling et al., 2011). For example, policyholders can surrender their policy and receive a surrender value (the so-called surrender option) or they can opt to discontinue premium payments (the so-called paid-up option). Originally, the...
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...2013 INDIVIDUAL ASSIGNMENT NAME: ID: LECTURER: TOPIC: TRAN HUYNH NHU SB60381 CLASS: SB0765 DINH TIEN THANH VALUATION AND FINANCIAL MODELING NHUTHSB60381 VALUATION FINANCIAL MODELING INDIVIDUAL ASSIGNMENT I. EXECUTIVE Through this report, I will analyze and evaluate Hung Vuong Joint Stock Company’s price and compare with the 10 other companies in the same industry. To evaluate the value stock of enterprises, we have a lot of methods, such as: Dividend Discount Model (DDM), price to earnings (PE) or market price to book value (PB)… Each method has its pros and cons. However, in this report, I will evaluate stock price in three methods: PE, PS and PB. In this report, there are three main parts: overview the foods industry and background of HVG, valuation of stock price and give some comment about these methods. II. OVERVIEW FOODS INDUSTRY AND HUNG VUONG JOINT STOCK COMPANY 1. Overview foods industry After becoming a member of WTO, Vietnam has more opportunities for foods industry. However, with the advantages, foods industry in Vietnam has also faced with a lot of challenges. Foods industry in Vietnam develops very quickly with two types: domestic foods and exported foods. With the local consumers, with the variety, there are a 1 NHUTHSB60381 VALUATION FINANCIAL MODELING INDIVIDUAL ASSIGNMENT lot of types of foods. Moreover, in fact, when Vietnam joined WTO and ASEAN, it promotes foods exported and agriculture and maritime products. In recent years, even though growth...
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...alcohol abuse will be limited to the cases of excessive consumption of alcohol as a single event. In other words the discussion will not consider alcohol addictions, but only excessive consumption by the casual or social drinker. Additionally, for the purpose of the discussion it will be assumed that the abuse takes place in a setting in which there is potential for the behavior to have negative impacts on neighbors and the community. In other words there is a potential that private behavior by one person of group with have an adverse impact on others.” Once one has defined what one is going to be include in the behavior studied, then one can begin to define possible variables that may cause excess consumption. So section three is the modeling part of the analysis. For example, economic theory suggests that the quantity demanded will have an inverse relationship to the price. In the case of alcohol abuse there are certain settings that suggest that pricing or a lack of price as a regulator of consumption may play a role in abuse. For example, alcohol abuse may occur in social setting in...
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...Regime-switching effects of debt on real GDP per capita the case of Latin American and Caribbean countries Tsangyao Chang ⁎, Gengnan Chiang Department of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t In this paper, we try to investigate how the debt and real GDP per capita relationship varies with indebtedness levels and other country characteristics in a balanced panel of 21 developing Latin American and Caribbean countries over the period 1992–2006. The empirical results indicate that there exist two threshold values of 32.88% and 55.89%. The latter is lower than the Maastricht criterion and Stability and Growth Pact of a total external Debt per GDP ratio at 60% in the OECD countries. Both thresholds divide our panel into three regimes. In the middle (stimulus) regime, the Debt per GDP ratio has a positive impact on real GDP per capita, which is consistent with the stimulus view (Eisner, 1984). However, the impact becomes negative and consistent with the crowding-out view (Friedman, 1977, 1985) in the left and right (crowding-out) regimes. Based on our findings, we find no supportive evidence for Ricardian view (Barro, 1989). Therefore, our empirical results have important implications for fiscal policymakers in these Latin American and Caribbean countries. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Article history: Accepted 13 June 2011 JEL classification: C4 E6 H3 H6 Keywords: Debt per GDP ratio Real GDP per capita Stimulus view Crowding-out...
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...1. The American Customer Satisfaction Index (www.theacsi.org) The American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) is an economic indicator based on modeling of customer evaluations of the quality of goods and services purchased in the United States and produced by both domestic and foreign firms with substantial U.S. market shares. ASCI interviews more than 80,000 Americans every year about the satisfaction from the products and services that they have consumed. It uses that in a model developed by University of Michigan to measure customer satisfaction. So, the methodology uses customer interviews and econometric modeling. Over the years, ACSI have been able to identify the industries and sectors that have been performing well, and the ones that are not. ACSI provides customer satisfaction for a company, which correlates with the financial performance and the stock price of the company. Moreover, as consumer spending account for 70% of GDP, it also correlates with GDP growth changes. Manufacturing good industries tend to score higher, as they require lower level of service. Companies that tend to improve quality fair better on the index than companies that tend to reduce price. It also provides the overall industrial satisfaction index, which is helpful especially in case of acquisitions. Strengths: Companies can use ACSI as a tool to optimize their customer satisfaction to drive customer loyalty. It benefits investors, who would like to know a relation between the company’s...
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...the 1979 Nobel Prize in Economics observing: “Most of the people in the world are poor, so if we knew the economics of being poor we would know much of the economics that really matters. Most of the world's poor people earn their living from agriculture, so if we knew the economics of agriculture we would know much of the economics of being poor” (Shultz, 1979). Existing empirical evidence on the impact of macroeconomic variables on agriculture remains mixed and inconclusive. This paper re-examines the dynamic relationship between monetary policy variables and agricultural prices using alternative vector auto regression (VAR) type model specifications. Directed acyclic graph theory is proposed as an alternative modeling approach to supplement existing modeling methods. Similar to results in other studies, this study Â’s findings show that over the time period analyzed (1975–2000), changes to money supply as a monetary policy tool had little or no impact on agricultural prices. The primary macroeconomic policy instrument that affects agricultural prices is the exchange rate, which is shown to be directly linked to interest rate, a source of monetary policy shock. The Transmission of Exchange Rate Changes to Agricultural Prices (July 2009) provides empirical evidence that price and exchange rate transmission for agricultural products is low in most developing economies, partly because of trade policies but also because of inadequate infrastructure and other market deficiencies...
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...Report of the Joint Study on the Possibility of a Canada-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement March 2012 Contents Introduction and Purpose of the Study ................................................................................................ 2 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................. 3 Chapter 1: Overview of Bilateral Economic Relations ....................................................................... 5 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 Overview............................................................................................................................... 5 Trends in Bilateral Trade in Goods ...................................................................................... 7 Trends in Bilateral Trade in Services ................................................................................... 9 Trends in Foreign Direct Investment ................................................................................. 10 Chapter 2: Analysis of the Economic Effects from a Canada-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement .......................................................................................................................................... 12 Chapter 3: Analysis of Major Areas of an Economic Partnership Agreement ................................. 14 3.1 Market Access (including Rules of Origin) .......................................................
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