...Monetary Policy and the Federal Reserve: Current Policy and Conditions Marc Labonte Specialist in Macroeconomic Policy February 9, 2015 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RL30354 Monetary Policy and the Federal Reserve: Current Policy and Conditions Summary The Federal Reserve (the Fed) defines monetary policy as its actions to influence the availability and cost of money and credit. Because the expectations of market participants play an important role in determining prices and economic growth, monetary policy can also be defined to include the directives, policies, statements, and actions of the Fed that influence future perceptions. Traditionally, the Fed has implemented monetary policy primarily through open market operations involving the purchase and sale of U.S. Treasury securities. The Fed traditionally conducts open market operations by setting a target for the federal funds rate, the rate at which banks borrow and lend reserves on an overnight basis. Beginning in September 2007, in a series of 10 moves, the federal funds target was reduced from 5.25% to a range of 0% to 0.25% on December 16, 2008, where it has remained since. With the federal funds target at this zero lower bound, the Fed attempted to provide additional stimulus through unconventional policies. It provided forward guidance on its expectations for future rates, announcing that it “anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic...
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...Monetary Policy in the United States: A Brave New World? Stephen D. Williamson This article is a reflection on monetary policy in the United States during Ben Bernanke’s two terms as Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, from 2006 to 2014. Inflation targeting, policy during the financial crisis, and post-crisis monetary policy (forward guidance and quantitative easing) are discussed and evaluated. (JEL E52, N12) Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Second Quarter 2014, 96(2), pp. 111-21. en Bernanke chaired his last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in January 2014 and departed from the Board of Governors on February 3 after eight years as the head of the Federal Reserve System. So, the time is right to look back on the Bernanke era and ask how central banking has and has not changed since 2006. There is plenty in the macroeconomic record from 2006 to 2014 to keep economists and policy analysts busy for many years, so in this short piece we can only scratch the surface of what is interesting about the Bernanke era. I will focus on three issues: (i) inflation targeting, (ii) Fed lending and other interventions during the financial crisis, and (iii) post-crisis Fed policy, in particular experiments with forward guidance and quantitative easing (QE). B INFLATION TARGETING When Bernanke began his first term in 2006, I think the big change people expected was an inflation-targeting regime for U.S. monetary policy, similar to what exists in New...
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...Should those economic indicators prove to be positive, then the markets turn upwards or even “fly”. When the markets experience an intense downtown, it can lead to a severe recession with the prices of financial assets declining sharply, which can cause individuals, businesses, and financial institutions to become less able to handle their debt payments or it can even lead to financial system failure with widespread bank closures and mortgage foreclosures in extreme cases such as the 2008-09 crisis, when the U.S. Government and the Fed were required to step in and take action to prevent total system failure. The U.S. economy still hasn't fully recovered. The U.S. Federal Reserve Is a Central Bank of the U.S. and is responsible for monetary policy and regulating the banking system. The Federal Reserve System consists of member banks,...
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...Appreciation & recession – increased demand & price * Stronger currency favors importers (trade surplus) * Low interest ratesDepreciation & Expansion * Weaker currency favors exporters (trade deficit) * The role of the IMF * Make emergency loans to countries with balance of payment problems * Ensures stability of national monetary system * Fiscal Policy * Government changing taxes and/or government spending in effort to increase or decrease business activity * Expansionary FP leads to increased spending but downside is budget deficits * Contractionary FPleads to budget surpluses or smaller deficits * AKA Austerity (attempt to shrink growing deficits) * Monetary Policy * Central Banks changing the MS to increase or decrease the availability of credit in an effort to increase or decrease business activity * Primary tool is Open Market Operations * Buying and Selling short term securities * Dual Mandate Inflation & Unemployment * ECB does not have a dual mandate like the Fed THE EUROPEAN UNION (EU) * Explain the purpose of an “economy” from a European perspective * Equity & Leisure more important than consumption * Social goals more important than individual goals * Market for production; Government for...
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...The Federal Interest Rate and How it Effects Business Interest is the cost of borrowing money. You pay it in almost every facet of life and business, from taking out a home mortgage, to credit card use, to equipment loans and lines of credit. The rate that you pay or the percentage is not random and is directly correlated to the Federal Reserve Bank’s (The Fed) interest rate. The Fed’s interest rate has an endless effect on how the economy operates and how business is done throughout the world. This effect not only has a direct impact on the stock and bond markets but has an even greater effect on how business operations make decisions and progress in our society. Monetary policy in the United States has been and always will be one of the most important topics in politics that we have as a nation. The effect that inflation has upon society is the greatest threat to wealth management and stability that we face. This interest rate or more specifically, the monetary policy used by the Fed is what drives business and commerce. The effect of the Federal interest rate to not only create opportunity but have the ability to drive industry up or down depending on the amount of money banks have to lend to small businesses and individuals is profound. Every politician will at some point or another, state that “Small Business is what drives the American Economy!” This is not just rhetoric but proven by the amount of jobs and income generated from small business. According to the...
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...are in central North America between Canada and Mexico. The United States is a developed country and has the world's largest national economy.3 The economy is fueled by an abundance of natural resources and high worker productivity.4 While the U.S. economy is considered post-industrial, it continues to be one of the world's largest manufacturers.5 The country accounts for 37% of global military spending,6 being the world's foremost economic and military power, a prominent political and cultural force, and a leader in scientific research and technological innovations.7 Economy The United States has a capitalist mixed economy which is fueled by abundant natural resources and high productivity.8 According to the International Monetary Fund, the U.S. GDP of $16.8 trillion constitutes 24% of the gross world product at market exchange rates and over 19% of the gross world product at purchasing power parity (PPP).9Its national GDP was about 5% larger at PPP in 2014 than the European Union's, whose population is around 62% higher.10 However, the US's nominal GDP is estimated to be $17.528 trillion as of 2014, which is about 5% smaller than that of the European Union.11 From 1983 to 2008, U.S. real compounded annual GDP growth was 3.3%, compared to a 2.3% weighted average for the The New York Times Guide to Essential Knowledge, Second...
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...between sovereign debt management and monetary policy under fiscal dominance and financial instability Hans J Blommestein and Philip Turner1 Abstract Serious fiscal vulnerabilities arising from many years of high government/GDP ratios have created new and complex interactions between public debt management and monetary policy. Although their formal mandates have not changed, recent balance sheet policies of many central banks have tended to blur the separation of their policies from fiscal policy. The mandates of debt management offices have usually had a microeconomic focus (viz, minimising longer-term borrowing costs, while limiting refunding risks). Such mandates have usually avoided any explicit macroeconomic policy dimension but some major policy overlaps are latent. What is needed is a policy framework for all official actions that affect the maturity structure of government debt in the hands of the public. This requires more analysis of the macroeconomics of government debt management. A full debate about the allocation of functional responsibilities would have to take account not only of the economics, but also of political and institutional constraints. There are operational advantages in having in place appropriate governance arrangements that serve to forestall short-sighted policies and hold specific institutions accountable for their mandates. Keywords: Monetary policy, central banks, policy design and consistency, policy coordination, debt management, sovereign...
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...THE GREAT RECESSION Since publication of Robert L. Hetzel’s he Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve (Cambridge University Press, 2008), the intellectual consensus that had characterized macroeconomics has disappeared. hat consensus emphasized eicient markets, rational expectations, and the eicacy of the price system in assuring macroeconomic stability. he 2008–2009 recession not only destroyed the professional consensus about the kinds of models required to understand cyclical luctuations but also revived the credit-cycle or asset-bubble explanations of recession that dominated thinking in the nineteenth century and irst half of the twentieth century. hese “market-disorder” views emphasize excessive risk taking in inancial markets and the need for government regulation. he present book argues for the alternative “monetary-disorder” view of recessions. A review of cyclical instability over the last two centuries places the 2008–2009 recession in the monetary-disorder tradition, which focuses on the monetary instability created by central banks rather than on a boom-bust cycle in inancial markets. Robert L. Hetzel is Senior Economist and Research Advisor in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, where he participates in debates over monetary policy and prepares the bank’s president for meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee. Dr. Hetzel’s research on monetary policy and the history of central banking has appeared in publications such...
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...Part Three Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems Chapter 1 ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS 1. THE INTEREST RATE ON THREE-MONTH TREASURY BILLS FLUCTUATES MORE THAN THE OTHER INTEREST RATES AND IS LOWER ON AVERAGE. THE INTEREST RATE ON BAA CORPORATE BONDS IS HIGHER ON AVERAGE THAN THE OTHER INTEREST RATES. 2. The lower price for a firm’s shares means that it can raise a smaller amount of funds, so investment in facilities and equipment will fall. 3. Higher stock prices mean that consumers’ wealth is higher, and they will be more likely to increase their spending. 4. They channel funds from people who do not have a productive use for them to people who do, thereby resulting in higher economic efficiency. 5. The United States economy was hit by the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Defaults in subprime residential mortgages led to major losses in financial institutions, producing not only numerous bank failures, but also the demise of two of the largest investment banks in the United States. These factors led to the “Great Recession” which began late in 2007. 6. The basic activity of banks is to accept deposits and make loans. 7. Savings and loan associations, mutual savings banks, credit unions, insurance companies, mutual funds, pension funds, and finance companies. 8. Answers will vary. 9. In the period from 2007 to 2011, both inflation and interest rates have generally trended downward compared to before...
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...FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES Macro-Finance Models of Interest Rates and the Economy Glenn D. Rudebusch Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco January 2010 Working Paper 2010-01 http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/papers/2010/wp10-01bk.pdf The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Macro-Finance Models of Interest Rates and the Economy Glenn D. Rudebusch∗ Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Abstract During the past decade, much new research has combined elements of finance, monetary economics, and macroeconomics in order to study the relationship between the term structure of interest rates and the economy. In this survey, I describe three different strands of such interdisciplinary macro-finance term structure research. The first adds macroeconomic variables and structure to a canonical arbitrage-free finance representation of the yield curve. The second examines bond pricing and bond risk premiums in a canonical macroeconomic dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The third develops a new class of arbitrage-free term structure models that are empirically tractable and well suited to macro-finance investigations. This article is based on a keynote lecture to the 41st annual conference of the Money, Macro, and Finance Research Group...
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...PART THREE Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems Copyright © 2013 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 1 ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS 1. The interest rate on three-month Treasury bills fluctuates more than the other interest rates and is lower on average. The interest rate on Baa corporate bonds is higher on average than the other interest rates. 2. The lower price for a firm’s shares means that it can raise a smaller amount of funds, so investment in facilities and equipment will fall. 3. Higher stock prices mean that consumers’ wealth is higher, and they will be more likely to increase their spending. 4. They channel funds from people who do not have a productive use for them to people who do, thereby resulting in higher economic efficiency. 5. The United States economy was hit by the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Defaults in subprime residential mortgages led to major losses in financial institutions, producing not only numerous bank failures, but also the demise of two of the largest investment banks in the United States. These factors led to the “Great Recession” which began late in 2007. 6. The basic activity of banks is to accept deposits and make loans. 7. Savings and loan associations, mutual savings banks, credit unions, insurance companies, mutual funds, pension funds, and finance companies. 8. Answers will vary. 9. In the period from 2007 to 2011, both inflation and interest rates have generally trended downward compared to before that...
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...ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK September 2015 Balancing Act: Pendulum swings toward US economy supporting global growth Global GDP growth Annual % change 8 Forecast 7 Emerging 6 5 4 World 3 Advanced 2 1 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: International Monetary Fund, RBC Economics Research The outlook for the global economy was muddied over the summer as the emerging market economies, led by China, weakened. Conversely, in many advanced economies, growth accelerated led by a robust increase in the US, a solid gain in the Euro area and rebound in the UK. Canada’s economy put in another weak performance in the second quarter although the monthly data augur well for a return to positive growth. On balance, the softening in the emerging market economies created downside risk to the world economy being able to maintain the 3.4% growth rate recorded over the prior three years. That said, the forecast was premised on activity in the advanced economies picking up sufficiently to offset a slowing in the emerging market growth and this appears to be playing out. China’s slowdown creates anxiety Market Volatility Index (VIX) Index 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2013 2014 2015 Increased anxiety about China’s economy and the stability of its financial markets fuelled concerns about global growth and international trade. Reports of weakening domestic demand and export activity elicited...
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...Threat of fiscal dominance? A BIS/OECD workshop on policy interactions between fiscal policy, monetary policy and government debt management after the financial crisis Basel, 2 December 2011 Monetary and Economic Department May 2012 Papers in this volume were prepared for the joint BIS and OECD workshop on “Policy interaction: fiscal policy, monetary policy and government debt management”, held in Basel on 2 December 2011. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the BIS or the central banks represented at the meeting. Individual papers (or excerpts thereof) may be reproduced or translated with the authorisation of the authors concerned. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2012. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1609-0381 (print) ISBN 92-9131-135-9 (print) ISSN 1682 7651 (online) ISBN 92-9197-135-9 (online) Preface The massive expansion of central bank balance sheets to contain the worst financial crisis in living memory raises questions about the theory and practice of monetary policy. The persistence in many advanced countries of large fiscal deficits and the prospect of high public debt/GDP ratios for many years is likely, at some point, to create policy dilemmas not only for central banks but also for public debt managers. Some countries have already had to cope with higher...
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...Fall of the Dollar and the Future of the International Monetary System Barry Eichengreen Oxford University Press, Inc., publishes works that further Oxford University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education. Oxford New York Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto With offices in Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam Copyright © 2011 by Barry Eichengreen Published by Oxford University Press, Inc. 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016 www.oup.com Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of Oxford University Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Eichengreen, Barry J. Exorbitant privilege : The Rise and Fall of the Dollar and the Future of the International Monetary System / Barry Eichengreen. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-19-975378-9 1. Money—United States—History—20th century. 2. Devaluation of currency—United States—History—21st century. 3. United States—Economic policy—2009– 4. Financial crises—United States—21st century...
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...Sixth Edition INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT Cheol S. Eun Bruce G. Resnick International Financial Management Sixth Edition The McGraw-Hill/Irwin Series in Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate Stephen A. Ross Franco Modigliani Professor of Finance and Economics Sloan School of Management Massachusetts Institute of Technology Consulting Editor FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT Adair Excel Applications for Corporate Finance First Edition Block, Hirt, and Danielsen Foundations of Financial Management Fourteenth Edition Brealey, Myers, and Allen Principles of Corporate Finance Tenth Edition Brealey, Myers, and Allen Principles of Corporate Finance, Concise Second Edition Brealey, Myers, and Marcus Fundamentals of Corporate Finance Sixth Edition Brooks FinGame Online 5.0 Bruner Case Studies in Finance: Managing for Corporate Value Creation Sixth Edition Chew The New Corporate Finance: Where Theory Meets Practice Third Edition Cornett, Adair, and Nofsinger Finance: Applications and Theory First Edition Cornett, Adair, and Nofsinger Finance: M Book First Edition DeMello Cases in Finance Second Edition Grinblatt (editor) Stephen A. Ross, Mentor: Influence through Generations Grinblatt and Titman Financial Markets and Corporate Strategy Second Edition Higgins Analysis for Financial Management Ninth Edition Kellison Theory of Interest Third Edition Kester, Ruback, and Tufano Case Problems in Finance Twelfth Edition Ross, Westerfield, and Jaffe Corporate Finance Ninth Edition...
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