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Monte Bianco Case Study

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Submitted By lucanoto92
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Cafes Monte Bianco

Antonio Bianco Laura Bozzi Luca Leone Noto Carmine Tomeo Roberta Valente

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Situazione
A8uale:

• Azienda a ges$one familiare (III generazione); • Se/ore: F&B; • Business core: torrefazione e distribuzione del caffè; • Mercato di riferimento: Europa;

Da@ economici: • Ricavi 56.112.408 ₤ (17,71% Private; 82,29% Premium) • EBIT

7.067.721 ₤ • U$le ne/o 1.945.632 ₤ • ROE 10.15% • PFN 23.878.550 ₤

Strategie perseguibili:

Modificare la strategia commerciale: 1. Focus esclusivo sul mercato Private (Qualità D) 2. Mixed Strategy (Qualità A-­‐ Premium, Adver@sing level 7%, Produzione rimanente per Private)

Previsioni

Mercato Private: • Ricavi 52.800.000 ₤ (-­‐5,9%) • EBIT 5.421.319 ₤ (-­‐23,29%) • U$le Ne/o 957.791 ₤ (-­‐50,77%) • ROE 9,46% (-­‐7%) • PFN 29.539.123 ₤ • Cash Flow Finale – 4.051.792 ₤

Mixed Strategy: • Ricavi 100.646.400 ₤ (+79,4%) • EBIT 20.783.668 ₤ (+194%) • U$le Ne/o 10.175.200 ₤ (423%) • ROE 52,61% (+418,32%) • PFN 21.602.011 ₤ 2 • Cash Flow Finale 3.397.989 ₤

AGENDA
Assump&on
Liquidità opera@va

Mercato private: Profit Plan
• Profit Wheel
• Cash Wheel
• ROE Wheel

Credi@ vs Clien@

Ciclo di Cassa

Scorte

Ricavi di Vendita

Mixed Strategy: Profit Plan
• Profit Wheel
• Cash Wheel
• ROE Wheel Conclusione

Invst. In A\vità

Ciclo di Profiao

Cos@ Opera@vi

Profi\

U@lizzaz. dell’a\vo

Ciclo di ROE

Capitale Azionario

Reddi@vità del Capitale proprio 3

ASSUMPTION L’azienda opera a piena capacità produ\va L’intera quan@tà prodoaa viene venduta (6.000.000 Kg) I credi@ dell’anno precedente (2000), vengono riscossi nell’anno corrente (2001) I debi@ verso fornitori restano invaria@ dal 2000 al 2001 Nel 2001 non maturano debi@ commerciali da pagare nel 2002

VARIABILI CHIAVE DELLA PROFIT WHEEL IN
IPOTESI DI PRIVATE SALES STRATEGY
STIMA
DEL LIVELLO DI VENDITA

VARIABILI ESTERNE

• Libera concorrenza • Domanda elas@ca al prezzo • Mercato stabile che richiede costanza nell’offerta e puntualità nella consegna

VARIABILI INTERNE • Prodoao standardizzato • Eliminazione di Spese Marke@ng • Riduzione cos@ fissi e variabili

• Shelf-­‐life del prodoao più lunga • Semplificazione dei processi produ\vi • Servizio standard per il consumatore.

PREVISIONE DEI COSTI OPERATIVI

COGS VC

• Economia di scala • Economie di apprendimento • Potere contraauale dei fornitori elevato • Basso potere contraauale nei confron@ del cliente

COGS FC • Cos@ fissi impegna@ (ammortamen@ impian@)

• Riduzione del 65% dei cos@ di vendita • Riduzione dei cos@ di R&S del 75% • Riduzione dei cos@ amministra@vi del 50%

VARIABILI CHIAVE DELLA PROFIT WHEEL IN
IPOTESI DI PRIVATE SALES STRATEGY
PROFITTO
ATTESO

• Riduzione del reddito neao del 50,77%

• Riduzione dell’ EBIT del 23,29% rispeao all’anno 2000

PREZZO DI INVESTIMENTO IN NUOVI ASSETS

• Piccolo miglioramento dell’indice di copertura (da 0,65 a 0,68) • L’ indice di auto copertura rimane invariato: 0,31

CLOSE AND TEST ASSUMPTIONS

• Ipotesi 1: Incapacità di vendere l’intera quan@tà prodoaaà Forte contrazione dell’EBIT • Ipotesi 2: Riduzione del 10% delle revenues à Riduzione del risultato opera@vo del 24,35%, l’ u@le neao del 82,69%

CASH WHEEL: LA PRIVATE SALE STRATEGY ASSORBE
CASSA DALL’ATTIVITÀ OPERATIVA E FINANZIARIA
• Cash Flow da a7vità opera?va: situazione nega@va dovuta a: -­‐ Riduzione di EBITDA del 12,9% dal 2000 al 2001. -­‐ Variazione nega@va del CCN dovuta a un sostanzioso incremento dei credi@ commerciali

• Cash flow da a7vità di inves?mento: nessuna variazione. La produzione di Private Sales è dovuta solo a una conversione delle funzioni di macchinari già esisten@. • Cash flow da a7vità finanziaria: riduzione dei Tax Payment dovuta ad un minor profiao registrato.

Cash flow finale: l’azienda drena completamente la cassa e si trova in crisi di liquidità. Il cash flow finale è nega]vo di ITL(000s) 4.051.792

AGIRE SOLO NEL MERCATO PRIVATE CAUSA UNA
DIMINUZIONE DEL ROE DEL 23,29%
ROE
= Profit Margin* Asset Turnover* Leverage Ra]o

Profit Margin

Return on Equity (ROE)

Reddito Neao/
Ricavi
= 1,814%

Asset Turnover

Ricavi/Totale A\vo = 1,16

Leverage Ra]o

Totale Passivo/
Patrimonio
Neao = 4,51

ROE= 9,46% Sebbene tale valore debba essere confrontato con dei benchmark di seaore, risulta essere decisamente più basso del ROE generato da una Strategia di vendita mista (Premium e Private).

VARIABILI CHIAVE DELLA PROFIT WHEEL IN
IPOTESI DI MIXED SALES STRATEGY

STIMA DEL LIVELLO DI VENDITA

VARIABILI ESTERNE

• Condizioni Ambientali

• Instabilità poli@ca paesi produaori • Mercato concentrato senza interven@ del legislatore • Domanda inelas@ca

VARIABILI INTERNE • Due @pologie di prodoao con qualità e miscele diverse • Marke@ng intensivo sul prodoao Premium • Due livelli di servizio al consumatore (standard, elevato)

PREVISIONE DEI COSTI OPERATIVI

COGS VC

• economie di scopo

• efficienza opera@va

• due linee di prodoao con miscele e pack differen@ • potere contraauale fornitori elevato • potere contraauale clien@ medio-­‐ basso COGS FC • Cos@ fissi impegna@ (Amm. Impian@) • Cos@ fissi discrezionali (Marke@ng, R&D, Selling, Administra@ve)

VARIABILI CHIAVE DELLA PROFIT WHEEL IN
IPOTESI DI MIXED SALES STRATEGY

PROFITTO ATTESO

• Profiao aaeso derivante da questa nuova strategia commerciale è pari a ITL(000s) 10.175.200 à (+423%) • EBIT di ITL(000s)20.783.668 à (+194%)

PREZZO DI INVESTIMENTO IN NUOVI ASSETS

• Indice di copertura aumenta da 0,65 a 1,00 • Indice di autocopertura è pari a 0,66, mentre

• Asset turnover di 1,84 (entrambi in miglioramento rispeao all’anno passato)

CLOSE AND TEST ASSUMPTIONS

• Ipotesi 1: diminuzione del livello di vendite del 10% à riduzione più che proporzionale, sia dell’EBIT (-­‐18%) sia del Risultato Neao (-­‐21,5%)

CASH WHEEL: LA MIXED STRATEGY AUMENTA I
FLUSSI DI CASSA DALL’ ATTIVITÀ OPERATIVA
Disponibilità iniziale

ITL

Cash from operating activities
Net Profit
Taxes
Interests
Ammortamento
EBITDA

ITL 10.175.200,80
ITL 6.783.467,20
ITL 3.825.000,00
ITL 2.993.700,00
ITL 23.777.368,00

Δ CCN
Incremento Account Receivables
Riduzione Inventory
Riduzione Account Payables
Cash Flow Attività Operativa

-ITL 10.892.361,80
-ITL 12.040.761,80
ITL 1.148.400,00
ITL
ITL 12.885.006,20

Cash derivanti dall'attività d'investimento
Investimenti
Disinvestimenti
Cash derivanti dall'attività Finanziaria
Rimborso Debito
Tax Payment
Quota interessi

ITL
ITL
ITL

1.121.450,00
2001

-

-ITL 10.608.467,20
-ITL 6.783.467,20
-ITL 3.825.000,00

Total Cash Flow

ITL

2.276.539,00

Disponibilità iniziale

ITL

1.121.450,00

Cash Flow finale

ITL

3.397.989,00



Cash Flow Acvità Opera]va: Cash Flow posi@vo e pari a 12.885.006,20₤. nonostante una Δ CCN nega]va, dovuta principalmente ad un aumento esponenziale dei Credi@ vs clien@



Cash Flow da acvità di inves]mento: nessuna variazione dovuta all’assenza di inves@men@/disinves@men@



Cash Flow da acvità finanziaria: assorbimento di 10.608.467,20₤ dovuto a: -­‐ pagamento delle tasse di speaanza dell’esercizio (α=40%) -­‐ pagamento della quota di interessi derivante dai debi@ finanziari contra\ dall’impresa (3.825.000₤)

Cash Flow Finale:

L’azienda, con questa strategia mista, è in grado di generare cassa per un importo pari a 3.397.989,00₤ (+203% su base annua)

PERSEGUIRE UNA STRATEGIA MISTA PERMETTE
UN AUMENTO DEL RO DEL 194%
ROE
= Profit Margin* Asset Turnover* Leverage Ra]o

Profit Margin Return on Equity (ROE)

Reddito Neao/
Ricavi
= 10,11%

Asset Turnover

Ricavi/Totale A\vo = 1,84

Leverage Ra@o

Totale Passivo/
Patrimonio

Neao = 2,83

ROE= 52,61%

Sebbene tale valore debba essere confrontato con dei benchmark di seaore, risulta essere decisamente più alto del ROE generato in precedenza

CONCLUSIONI
L’U@lizzo
di una PRIVATE SALES STRATEGY non è conveniente in quanto causa una diminuzione del ROE del 23,29% e i seguen@ risulta@: • Ricavi 52.800.000 ₤ (-­‐5,9%) • EBIT 5.421.319 ₤ (-­‐23,29%) • U$le Ne/o 957.791 ₤ (-­‐50,77%) • ROE 9,46% (-­‐7%) • PFN 29.539.123 ₤ • Cash Flow Finale – 4.051.792 ₤

L’U@lizzo di una MIXED SALES STRATEGY è conveniente in quanto porta ad un aumento del ROE del 194% e i seguen@ risulta@: • Ricavi 100.646.400 ₤ (+79,4%) • EBIT 20.783.668 ₤ (+194%) • U$le Ne/o 10.175.200 ₤ (423%) • ROE 52,61% (+418,32%) • PFN 21.602.011 ₤ • Cash Flow Finale 3.397.989 ₤

Allegato 1.1 – CE Private Sales Strategy

Allegato 1.2 – SP Private Sales Strategy

Allegato 1.3 – RF Private Sales Strategy
Disponibilità iniziale

ITL 1.121.450,00
2001

Cash from operating activities
Net Profit
Taxes
Interests

ITL 957.791,00
ITL 638.528,00
ITL 3.825.000,00

Ammortamento

ITL 2.993.700,00

EBITDA

ITL 8.415.019,00

Δ CCN
Incremento Account Receivables
Riduzione Inventory
Riduzione Account Payables
Cash Flow Attività Operativa

-ITL 10.273.133,00
ITL 1.148.400,00

Indici di sostenibilità del debito: PFN
PFN/EBITDA
EBITDA

ITL -ITL 709.714,00

PFN
Cash derivanti dall'attività d'investimento
Investimenti
Disinvestimenti

ITL ITL ITL -

Cash derivanti dall'attività Finanziaria
Rimborso Debito
Tax Payment
Quota interessi

-ITL 4.463.528,00
ITL -ITL 638.528,00
-ITL 3.825.000,00

Total Cash Flow

-ITL 5.173.242,00

Disponibilità iniziale
Cash Flow finale

ITL 29.539.123,00
3,51
ITL 8.415.019,00

ITL 1.121.450,00
-ITL 4.051.792,00

PFN/PN
PN

ITL 29.539.123,00
2,91
ITL 10.123.660,40

Allegato 1.4 - Prospetto Volumi Private Sales Strategy
Revenues

Diminuzione 15%
ITL 44.880.000,00

Costs of goods sold
ITL 36.979.500,00
Variable
Fixed

Revenues

ITL 33.660.000,00
ITL 3.319.500,00

Diminuzione 10%
ITL 47.520.000,00

Costs of goods sold
ITL 38.959.500,00
Variable
Fixed

Gross margin
Mark-up

ITL 7.900.500,00
21%

Gross margin
Mark-up

ITL 8.560.500,00
22%

Marketing expenses
R&D expenses
Selling expenses
Administrative expenses
EBIT

ITL
ITL
832.032,50
ITL 1.251.148,50
ITL 2.376.000,00
ITL 3.441.319,00

Marketing expenses
R&D expenses
Selling expenses
Administrative expenses
EBIT

ITL
ITL
832.032,50
ITL 1.251.148,50
ITL 2.376.000,00
ITL 4.101.319,00

Interest expense

ITL 3.825.000,00

Interest expense

ITL 3.825.000,00

Profits
Taxes (40%)
Net profit

ITL
ITL
ITL

Profits
Taxes (40%)
Net profit

-ITL
ITL
-ITL

383.681,00
383.681,00

276.319,00
110.527,60
165.791,40

ITL 35.640.000,00
ITL 3.319.500,00

Allegato 1.5 - CE Mixed Strategy
Income Statement for the year ending December 31, 2001
(thousands of Italian liras)
Revenues
Private brand
Premium brand

ITL

100.646.400,00

ITL

63.754.772,00

ITL

36.891.628,00
58%

ITL

20.783.668,00

Interest expense

ITL

3.825.000,00

Profits
Taxes (40%)
Net profit

ITL
ITL
ITL

16.958.668,00
6.783.467,20
10.175.200,80

ITL
ITL

37.030.400,00
63.616.000,00

Costs of goods sold
Variable Private
Variable Premium
Fixed

ITL
ITL
ITL

27.772.800,00
31.881.472,00
4.100.500,00

Gross margin
Mark-up
Marketing expenses
R&D expenses
Selling expenses
Administrative expenses
EBIT

ITL
ITL
ITL
ITL

4.453.120,00
3.328.130,00
3.574.710,00
4.752.000,00

Allegato 1.6 - SP Mixed Strategy
Balance Sheet at December 31, 2001
(in thousands of Italian liras)
Assets
Cash
Raw material inventory
Finished goods (0 kg.)
Accounts Receivable (*)
Property, plant and equipment (**)
Depreciation

(*) Total A/R: XXXXXX
(**) includes vacant land w ith a cost of 13,000,000

Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity
ITL 3.397.989,00 Accounts payable
ITL 2.907.963,00 Credit line
ITL
ITL 21.409.228,80 Long term debt
Shareholders' Equity
ITL 42.374.000,00 Net Profit
-ITL 15.260.780,00
ITL 54.828.400,80

ITL
ITL

487.331
25.000.000,00

ITL
ITL
ITL

10.000.000,00
9.165.869,00
10.175.200,80

ITL

54.828.400,80

Allegato 1.7 - RF Mixed Strategy
Disponibilità iniziale
Cash from operating activities
Net Profit
Taxes
Interests
Ammortamento
EBITDA
Δ CCN
Incremento Account Receivables
Riduzione Inventory
Riduzione Account Payables
Cash Flow Attività Operativa
Cash derivanti dall'attività d'investimento
Investimenti
Disinvestimenti
Cash derivanti dall'attività Finanziaria
Rimborso Debito
Tax Payment
Quota interessi

ITL

1.121.450,00
2001

ITL 10.175.200,80
ITL
6.783.467,20
ITL
3.825.000,00
ITL
2.993.700,00
ITL 23.777.368,00
-ITL 10.892.361,80
-ITL 12.040.761,80
ITL
1.148.400,00
ITL
ITL 12.885.006,20
ITL
ITL
ITL

-

-ITL 10.608.467,20
-ITL
6.783.467,20
-ITL
3.825.000,00

Total Cash Flow

ITL

2.276.539,00

Disponibilità iniziale

ITL

1.121.450,00

Cash Flow finale

ITL

3.397.989,00

Indici di sostenibilità del debito: PFN

ITL 21.602.011,00

PFN/EBITDA

0,91
EBITDA

ITL 23.777.368,00

PFN

ITL 21.602.011,00

PFN/PN

1,12
PN

ITL 19.341.069,80

Allegato 1.8 - Prospetto Volumi Mercato Private
Revenues

Diminuzione 15%
ITL 44.880.000,00

Costs of goods sold
ITL 36.979.500,00
Variable
Fixed

Revenues

ITL 33.660.000,00
ITL 3.319.500,00

Diminuzione 10%
ITL 47.520.000,00

Costs of goods sold
ITL 38.959.500,00
Variable
Fixed

Gross margin
Mark-up

ITL 7.900.500,00
21%

Gross margin
Mark-up

ITL 8.560.500,00
22%

Marketing expenses
R&D expenses
Selling expenses
Administrative expenses
EBIT

ITL
ITL
832.032,50
ITL 1.251.148,50
ITL 2.376.000,00
ITL 3.441.319,00

Marketing expenses
R&D expenses
Selling expenses
Administrative expenses
EBIT

ITL
ITL
832.032,50
ITL 1.251.148,50
ITL 2.376.000,00
ITL 4.101.319,00

Interest expense

ITL 3.825.000,00

Interest expense

ITL 3.825.000,00

Profits
Taxes (40%)
Net profit

ITL
ITL
ITL

ITL 35.640.000,00
ITL 3.319.500,00

Profits
Taxes (40%)
Net profit

-ITL
ITL
-ITL

383.681,00
383.681,00

276.319,00
110.527,60
165.791,40

21

Allegato 1.9- CE Mixed Strategy
Income Statement for the year ending December 31, 2001
(thousands of Italian liras)
Revenues
Private brand
Premium brand

ITL

100.646.400,00

ITL

63.754.772,00

ITL

36.891.628,00
58%

ITL

20.783.668,00

Interest expense

ITL

3.825.000,00

Profits
Taxes (40%)
Net profit

ITL
ITL
ITL

16.958.668,00
6.783.467,20
10.175.200,80
22

ITL
ITL

37.030.400,00
63.616.000,00

Costs of goods sold
Variable Private
Variable Premium
Fixed

ITL
ITL
ITL

27.772.800,00
31.881.472,00
4.100.500,00

Gross margin
Mark-up
Marketing expenses
R&D expenses
Selling expenses
Administrative expenses
EBIT

ITL
ITL
ITL
ITL

4.453.120,00
3.328.130,00
3.574.710,00
4.752.000,00

Allegato 1.10- SP Mixed Strategy
Balance Sheet at December 31, 2001
(in thousands of Italian liras)
Assets
Cash
Raw material inventory
Finished goods (0 kg.)
Accounts Receivable (*)
Property, plant and equipment (**)
Depreciation

Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity
ITL 3.397.989,00 Accounts payable
ITL 2.907.963,00 Credit line
ITL
ITL 21.409.228,80 Long term debt
Shareholders' Equity
ITL 42.374.000,00 Net Profit
-ITL 15.260.780,00
ITL 54.828.400,80

ITL
ITL

487.331
25.000.000,00

ITL
ITL
ITL

10.000.000,00
9.165.869,00
10.175.200,80

ITL

54.828.400,80

(*) Total A/R: XXXXXX
(**) includes vacant land w ith a cost of 13,000,000
23

Allegato 1.12- RF Mixed Strategy
Disponibilità iniziale
Cash from operating activities
Net Profit
Taxes
Interests
Ammortamento
EBITDA
Δ CCN
Incremento Account Receivables
Riduzione Inventory
Riduzione Account Payables
Cash Flow Attività Operativa
Cash derivanti dall'attività d'investimento
Investimenti
Disinvestimenti
Cash derivanti dall'attività Finanziaria
Rimborso Debito
Tax Payment
Quota interessi

ITL

1.121.450,00
2001

ITL 10.175.200,80
ITL
6.783.467,20
ITL
3.825.000,00
ITL
2.993.700,00
ITL 23.777.368,00
-ITL 10.892.361,80
-ITL 12.040.761,80
ITL
1.148.400,00
ITL
ITL 12.885.006,20
ITL
ITL
ITL

-

Indici di sostenibilità del debito: PFN

ITL 21.602.011,00

PFN/EBITDA

0,91
EBITDA

ITL 23.777.368,00

PFN

ITL 21.602.011,00

PFN/PN

1,12
PN

ITL 19.341.069,80

-ITL 10.608.467,20
-ITL
6.783.467,20
-ITL
3.825.000,00

Total Cash Flow

ITL

2.276.539,00

Disponibilità iniziale

ITL

1.121.450,00

Cash Flow finale

ITL

3.397.989,00

24

Allegato 1.5- Prospetto Volumi Mixed Strategy
Revenues
Private brand
Premium brand

Diminuzione 15%
ITL 85.549.440,00
ITL
ITL

Diminuzione 10%
ITL 90.581.760,00

31.475.840,00
54.073.600,00

Revenues
Private brand
Premium brand

57.789.344,80

50.706.131,20
4.100.500,00

Costs of goods sold
ITL
Variable
Fixed
Gross margin
Mark-up

ITL

32.792.415,20

ITL
ITL

ITL
ITL

Costs of goods sold
ITL
Variable
Fixed

54.806.631,20

Gross margin
Mark-up

ITL

30.742.808,80

Marketing expenses
R&D expenses
Selling expenses
Administrative expenses
EBIT

ITL
3.785.152,00
ITL
3.328.130,00
ITL
3.574.710,00
ITL
4.752.000,00
ITL 15.302.816,80

Marketing expenses
R&D expenses
Selling expenses
Administrative expenses
EBIT

ITL
ITL
ITL
ITL
ITL

ITL

Interest expense

ITL

3.825.000,00

Profits
Taxes (40%)
Net profit

ITL 11.477.816,80
ITL
4.591.126,72
ITL
6.886.690,08

Profits
Taxes (40%)
Net profit

ITL
ITL
ITL

53.688.844,80
4.100.500,00

4.007.808,00
3.328.130,00
3.574.710,00
4.752.000,00
17.129.767,20

Interest expense

33.327.360,00
57.254.400,00

13.304.767,20
5.321.906,88
7.982.860,32

ITL
ITL

56%

3.825.000,00

57%

25

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