...Tree Although a decision analysis would recommend that Merck not commit to the proposal, the company's balance sheet shows that it has significant assets to support a loss. The projected values of earning for depression and dual indications seem to be worth the risk. Weightloss does not. Not Effective 15.0% 0 Phase III: Long Term Efficacy Testing #NAME? 25.0% 0 #NAME? #NAME? Obesity Don't Test #NAME? 0 #NAME? #NAME? Dual Indications 50.0% -400,000,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Depression: effective #NAME? 0 Indications #NAME? 15.0% -250,000,000 Conduct Depression: not effective 10.0% 0 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Obesity: effective 5.0% -100,000,000 Obesiity: not effective 10.0% 0 Complete Failure 70.0% -$500,000,000.00 Phase 4: Additional Trials #NAME? 10.0% 0 Effective Do not conduct #NAME? 0 #NAME? #NAME? 0 #NAME? #NAME? Test Not Effective 5.0% 0 Phase III: Long Term Efficacy Testing #NAME? 30.0% 0 #NAME? #NAME? Both Don't Test 70.0% 0 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0 #NAME? #NAME? Neither 60.0% 0 Phase II Efficacy Testing #NAME? Don't Test #NAME? -$30,000,000.00 Phase 1: Efficacy testing #NAME? #NAME? 0 #NAME? #NAME? Pass Test Fail Preclinical Analysis Test #NAME? 40.0% 0 #NAME? #NAME? Davanrik Licensing Decision Tree Cost Testing costs Launch Costs Total Projected value Net Gain Depression only $520,000,000...
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