...THE B L A C K SWAN The HIGHLY I mpact IM of the PROBABLE Nassim Nicholas Taleb U.S.A. $26.95 Canada $34.95 is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpre dictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9 / 1 1 . For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. A BLACK SWAN Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate oppor tunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool our selves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this reve latory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers...
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...Table of Contents Title Page Copyright Page Dedication Introduction Chapter 1 - Priming Chapter 2 - Confabulation Chapter 3 - Confirmation Bias Chapter 4 - Hindsight Bias Chapter 5 - The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy Chapter 6 - Procrastination Chapter 7 - Normalcy Bias Chapter 8 - Introspection Chapter 9 - The Availability Heuristic Chapter 10 - The Bystander Effect Chapter 11 - The Dunning-Kruger Effect Chapter 12 - Apophenia Chapter 13 - Brand Loyalty Chapter 14 - The Argument from Authority Chapter 15 - The Argument from Ignorance Chapter 16 - The Straw Man Fallacy Chapter 17 - The Ad Hominem Fallacy Chapter 18 - The Just-World Fallacy Chapter 19 - The Public Goods Game Chapter 20 - The Ultimatum Game Chapter 21 - Subjective Validation Chapter 22 - Cult Indoctrination Chapter 23 - Groupthink Chapter 24 - Supernormal Releasers Chapter 25 - The Affect Heuristic Chapter 26 - Dunbar’s Number Chapter 27 - Selling Out Chapter 28 - Self-Serving Bias Chapter 29 - The Spotlight Effect Chapter 30 - The Third Person Effect Chapter 31 - Catharsis Chapter 32 - The Misinformation Effect Chapter 33 - Conformity Chapter 34 - Extinction Burst Chapter 35 - Social Loafing Chapter 36 - The Illusion of Transparency Chapter 37 - Learned Helplessness Chapter 38 - Embodied Cognition Chapter 39 - The Anchoring Effect Chapter 40 - Attention Chapter 41 - Self-Handicapping Chapter 42 - Self-Fulfilling Prophecies Chapter 43 - The Moment Chapter 44 - Consistency...
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...ALSO BY MALCOLM GLADWELL The Tipping Point To my parents, Joyce and Graham Gladwell Introduction The Statue That Didn’t Look Right In September of 1983, an art dealer by the name of Gianfranco Becchina approached the J. Paul Getty Museum in California. He had in his possession, he said, a marble statue dating from the sixth century BC. It was what is known as a kouros—a sculpture of a nude male youth standing with his left leg forward and his arms at his sides. There are only about two hundred kouroi in existence, and most have been recovered badly damaged or in fragments from grave sites or archeological digs. But this one was almost perfectly preserved. It stood close to seven feet tall. It had a kind of light-colored glow that set it apart from other ancient works. It was an extraordinary find. Becchina’s asking price was just under $10 million. The Getty moved cautiously. It took the kouros on loan and began a thorough investigation. Was the statue consistent with other known kouroi? The answer appeared to be yes. The style of the sculpture seemed reminiscent of the Anavyssos kouros in the National Archaeological Museum of Athens, meaning that it seemed to fit with a particular time and place. Where and when had the statue been found? No one knew precisely, but Becchina gave the Getty’s legal department a sheaf of documents relating to its more recent history. The kouros, the records stated, had been in the private collection of a Swiss physician named Lauffenberger...
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...FAMILY OF SECRETS The Bush Dynasty, America’s Invisible Government, and the Hidden History of the Last Fifty Years RUSS BAKER Contents Foreword by James Moore 1. How Did Bush Happen? 2. Poppy’s Secret 3. Viva Zapata 4. Where Was Poppy? 5. Oswald’s Friend 6. The Hit 7. After Camelot 8. Wings for W. 9. The Nixonian Bushes 10. Downing Nixon, Part I: The Setup 11. Downing Nixon, Part II: The Execution 12. In from the Cold 13. Poppy’s Proxy and the Saudis 14. Poppy’s Web 15. The Handoff 16. The Quacking Duck 17. Playing Hardball 18. Meet the Help 19. The Conversion 20. The Skeleton in W.’s Closet 21. Shock and . . . Oil? 22. Deflection for Reelection 23. Domestic Disturbance 24. Conclusion Afterword Author’s Note Acknowledgments Notes Foreword When a governor or any state official seeks elective national office, his (or her) reputation and what the country knows about the candidate’s background is initially determined by the work of local and regional media. Generally, those journalists do a competent job of reporting on the prospect’s record. In the case of Governor George W. Bush, Texas reporters had written numerous stories about his failed businesses in the oil patch, the dubious land grab and questionable funding behind a new stadium for Bush’s baseball team, the Texas Rangers, and his various political contradictions and hypocrisies while serving in Austin. I was one of those Texas journalists. I spent about a decade...
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...Copyright Salman Rushdie, 1988 All rights reserved VIKING Published by the Penguin Group Viking Penguin Inc., 40 West 23rd Street, New York, New York 10010, U.S.A. Penguin Books Ltd, 27 Wrights Lane, London W8 5TZ, England Penguin Books Australia Ltd. Ringwood, Victoria, Australia Penguin Books Canada Ltd, 2801 John Street, Markham, Ontario, Canada L3R 1B4 Penguin Books (N.Z.) Ltd, 182-190, Wairau Road, Auckland ro, New Zealand Penguin Books Ltd, Registered Offices: Harmondsworth, Middlesex, England Published in 1989 by Viking Penguin Inc. For Marianne Contents I The Angel Gibreel II Mahound III Ellowen Deeowen IV Ayesha V A City Visible but Unseen VI Return to Jahilia VII The Angel Azraeel VIII The Parting of the Arabian Seas IX A Wonderful Lamp Satan, being thus confined to a vagabond, wandering, unsettled condition, is without any certain abode; for though he has, in consequence of his angelic nature, a kind of empire in the liquid waste or air, yet this is certainly part of his punishment, that he is . . . without any fixed place, or space, allowed him to rest the sole of his foot upon. Daniel Defoe, _The History of the Devil_ I The Angel Gibreel "To be born again," sang Gibreel Farishta tumbling from the heavens, "first you have to die. Hoji! Hoji! To land upon the bosomy earth, first one needs to fly. Tat-taa! Taka-thun! How to ever smile again, if first you won't cry? How to win the darling's love, mister, without a sigh? Baba, if you want to get born again...
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...Growing Up Asian in Australia file:///D|/ /Calibre Library/Wei Zhi/Growing Up Asian in Australia (799)/text/part0000.html[2014-6-18 23:54:32] Growing Up Asian in Australia file:///D|/ /Calibre Library/Wei Zhi/Growing Up Asian in Australia (799)/text/part0000.html[2014-6-18 23:54:32] Growing Up Asian in Australia Growing up Asian in Australia file:///D|/ /Calibre Library/Wei Zhi/Growing Up Asian in Australia (799)/text/part0001.html[2014-6-18 23:54:33] Growing Up Asian in Australia Growing up Asian in Australia ...................................... Alice Pung Edited by file:///D|/ /Calibre Library/Wei Zhi/Growing Up Asian in Australia (799)/text/part0002.html[2014-6-18 23:54:33] Growing Up Asian in Australia Published by Black Inc., an imprint of Schwartz Media Pty Ltd Level 5, 289 Flinders Lane Melbourne Victoria 3000 Australia email: enquiries@blackincbooks.com http://www.blackincbooks.com Introduction and this collection © Alice Pung & Black Inc. Individual works © retained by the authors. Reprinted 2008 . ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 2008. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior consent of the publishers. Photo of Hoa Pham by Alister Air. Photo of Joy Hopwood by Yanna Black. The National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry: Pung, Alice (ed.) Growing up...
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...Handbook of Management Accounting Research Volume 3 Edited by CHRISTOPHER S. CHAPMAN Imperial College London, UK ANTHONY G. HOPWOOD University of Oxford, UK MICHAEL D. SHIELDS Michigan State University, USA AMSTERDAM – BOSTON – HEIDELBERG – LONDON – NEW YORK – OXFORD PARIS – SAN DIEGO – SAN FRANCISCO – SINGAPORE – SYDNEY – TOKYO Elsevier The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, UK First edition 2009 Copyright © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher Permissions may be sought directly from Elsevier’s Science & Technology Rights Department in Oxford, UK: phone ( 44) (0) 1865 843830; fax ( 44) (0) 1865 853333; email: permissions@elsevier.com. Alternatively visit the Science and Technology Books website at www.elsevierdirect.com/rights for further information Notice No responsibility is assumed by the publisher for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of any methods, products, instructions or ideas contained in the material herein. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data A catalog record for...
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