9-708-497
REV: JULY 6, 2011

DAVID COLLIS JAN W. RIVKIN

Strategic Decline
Great strategies can, on occasion, produce exceptional performance that lasts for many years. We have seen several examples of companies that held to essentially the same strategy over a long period of time and continued to outperform the competition. Wal-Mart had 99 quarters of EPS growth, much of it greater than 20% per annum, until a slowdown in the 1990s. Edward Jones has pursued the same strategy since the early 1970s, during which time it has grown nearly a hundredfold while maintaining a return on capital about 10% higher than competitors. Unfortunately, these stellar examples of sustained competitive advantage are the exception rather than the rule. The harsh truth is that changes in the external environment and competitive pressures cause the profitability of the typical superior performer to revert to the mean very rapidly.1 This fact challenges the strategist not only to craft robust strategies whose advantages last as long as possible, but also to design a strategy-making process that is capable of appropriate strategic change and effective strategic renewal. Failing to achieve this goal has led many formerly great companies, such as Sears, AT&T, and Westinghouse, into disaster. This note first shares facts about the sustainability of competitive advantage. It then observes that the demise of a previously successful strategy typically involves some change in the external environment. It therefore characterizes the types of change that can lead to strategic decline. But external change alone should not mean the end of superior performance, since the skilled strategist ought to be able to adapt to such changes. The final part of the note looks inside the firm to examine why managers often fail to respond adequately to external threats and explains why it is valuable to study