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A Case Study of a Currency Crisis: The Russian Default of 1998
Abbigail J. Chiodo and Michael T. Owyang currency crisis can be defined as a speculative attack on a country’s currency that can result in a forced devaluation and possible debt default. One example of a currency crisis occurred in Russia in 1998 and led to the devaluation of the ruble and the default on public and private debt.1 Currency crises such as Russia’s are often thought to emerge from a variety of economic conditions, such as large deficits and low foreign reserves. They sometimes appear to be triggered by similar crises nearby, although the spillover from these contagious crises does not infect all neighboring economies—only those vulnerable to a crisis themselves. In this paper, we examine the conditions under which an economy can become vulnerable to a currency crisis. We review three models of currency crises, paying particular attention to the events leading up to a speculative attack, including expectations of possible fiscal and monetary responses to impending crises. Specifically, we discuss the symptoms exhibited by Russia prior to the devaluation of the ruble. In addition, we review the measures that were undertaken to avoid the crisis and explain why those steps may have, in fact, hastened the devaluation. The following section reviews the three generations of currency crisis models and summarizes the conditions under which a country becomes vulnerable to speculative attack. The third section examines the events preceding the Russian default of 1998 in the context of a currency crisis. The fourth section applies the aforementioned models to the Russian crisis.

A

CURRENCY CRISES: WHAT DOES MACROECONOMIC THEORY SUGGEST?
A currency crisis is defined as a speculative attack on country A’s currency, brought about by
Abbigail J. Chiodo is a senior research associate and Michael T.

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