Decisions Based on Analysis of Alternatives (AoA)
Dr. David G. Ullman 1 , January 2009 Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) is a term that has been adopted by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the Department of Defense (DoD) to ensure that multiple alternatives have been analyzed prior to making costly investment decisions. AoA is an effort to move from the justification for a single alternative to the exploration of multiple alternatives so agencies have a basis for funding the best possible projects in a rational, defensible manner considering risk and uncertainty. As with other decisionmaking tools, techniques, and methodologies, AoA is most effectively used in a higherlevel decision-making context, such as an Enterprise Architecture (EA) framework. In fact, it is doubtful that the higher levels of AoA maturity (see below) could even be considered outside of a higher-level context. What Is AoA? And Why Do It? Analysis of Alternatives is the analytical comparison of multiple alternatives to be completed before committing resources to one project. The practice of comparing multiple alternative solutions has long been a part of engineering practice (Ullman, 2009, especially Chapter 7, Concept Generation). There is, however, a natural human tendency to propose a single alternative for funding or development and justify this option rather than compare multiple options with the goal of choosing the best one. Justification is easier to do than evaluating multiple options and making a learned decision. Thus, government agencies like OMB and DoD have found it necessary to encourage those proposing projects to use AoA. To facilitate this AoA introduction, there are 4 levels of AoA maturity: • Level 0 – Propose one alternative and justify it. • Level 1 – Propose multiple alternatives and provide a one-dimensional comparative analysis with weak inclusion of uncertainty