Sarin Revisited: Attacking America’s Mass Transit

The following paper is a work of fiction for an academic exercise and in no way is meant to imply actual terrorist plans or intents.

BACKGROUND: Sarin is one of the most lethal and effective nerve agents available. It can be used in liquid or gas forms, and it can kill within 1 to 10 minutes (CDC). Sarin is flexible and can be used to poison the air both indoors and outdoors, attached to an explosive, sprayed over crops or added to water supplies. Even those who happen to receive immediate medical attention will likely be permanently physically and or mentally handicapped (LaFranchi). Sarin would be an excellent addition to our organization’s stockpile as it can be used in a wide variety of situations across the globe with high effectiveness. ACQUISITION: Sarin gas has been declared illegal by the UN since the Chemical Weapons Convention of 1993 and it was declared a weapon of mass destruction by UN Resolution 687. As such, it is illegal for just about any state (who has signed onto the convention) to manufacture, own, stockpile or distribute sarin. While this may seem like it will complicate acquisition, there are currently sources to exploit where we already have control and/or influence. According to Woodward, Aum Shinrikyo was able to create a facility to produce sarin gas with only $30 million USD. This is a paltry sum now that we have allies and subgroups consolidating and commanding territories in Syria and Iraq. With our world-wide influence and reach, it will not be hard to recruit the required chemists in order to operate this plant(s), and with the open desert and small towns our brothers in ISIS have control over, it would be more than simple to convert a building for our purposes. This will be a temporary venture, so the requirements are not specific. We can easily send out instructions to the groups operating in northern Iraq and Syria to start collecting laboratory equipment for the process. Hospitals, labs, industrial plants all exist within our sphere of influence and these things are all available to us. Collecting the necessary equipment and personnel will be easy. The most difficult aspect of this project will be gathering the necessary ingredients for the production. Among the primary ingredients is Methylphosphonyl difluoride, which is highly toxic and corrosive itself, and on the Chemical Weapons Banned list making it the most difficult ingredient to obtain. Luck, it seems, is on our side (Woodward). With the civil war continuing to rage in Syria, and local and international governments distracted by ISIS, little attention has been given to Assad’s chemical weapons plants. Not only are there the chemical weapons plants of record, but the regime is slowly disclosing more and more locations (Forrigno). Using our extensive source network in Syria, we can gather information to locate these facilities to obtain the required ingredients from Assad himself. We already know some of our rebel brethren have had access to and have used sarin in Syria (Reuters). Because of it’s lethality, we do not need to obtain massive amounts of the liquid in order to orchestrate a large scale attack. Only one milliliter is enough to kill a human in liquid form, dispersed in a vapor or aerosol it’s even less (CDC). Additionally, we have assets in talks with high level Assad regime members. We are working on obtaining sarin directly from the regime. They will then be able to show the international community that the rebels are to blame while we are able to accomplish our larger goals. The enemy of my enemy is my friend, after all. As if these methods of acquisition were not enough, we also have munition stores being located in Iraq in ISIS controlled territory. As disclosed in a recent NY Times article, Americans have been finding Saddam era chemical munitions for a decade or more in Iraq. We also have access to these stores which have been found. TARGET: The selection of a target is key. Poor selection and execution can have the opposite intended effect, increasing confidence in the American Government and their security and intelligence forces. We must avoid this at all costs. In order to be most effective, we need to look at what will have the most jarring, psychologically damaging, economically harmful effect. In the aftermath of 9/11, the American government unleashed a campaign that encouraged people to go out like normal, to shop, travel, etc. And for the most part, it was effective. While the planes were very effective in creating unimaginable damage, it was such an unlikely attack to be repeated that we lost this lasting effect. This is where we will capitalize in the new attack. The new 9/11 will force Americans to question their safety, the faith in their government. People will isolate themselves, the economy will suffer and the westerners, not just Americans, will once again fear al Qa’eda. To accomplish this, we will strike Americans during their everyday activities, randomly, without pattern. Using this sarin, we will attack mass transit of differing varieties in cities throughout the United States. Busses, trains, subways, and congested pedestrian and biking areas. The cities chosen will not solely be those best known/most populated cities. While several larger cities should be selected, these smaller cities will accomplish far more damage. There is some level of belief by the Americans living in larger cities that a terrorist threat is ever present, partially because of their own government and politicians grandstanding. But, in these smaller cities of 50,000 - 200,000, this belief does not exist. These Americans feel safe. It is this level of safety that we need to destroy. If we want to terrorize the average American, we will need to attack the average American. No one will be safe. At least a dozen cities should be chosen as targets. Smaller cities do not matter as long as they are scattered throughout the country. It is important to attack a wide variety; a rural isolated city in Montana like Bozeman, farming cities in the midwest like Omaha, NE and “all American” cities like Toledo, OH. Larger cities should be selected in areas that are also seen as relatively safer. It seems most Americans feel like the Washington - NYC - Boston megalopolis is the most likely target for a terrorist attack. The larger cities selected should avoid this area. Instead, Cities on the west coast such as Los Angeles, Portland, Seattle should be selected. On the east coast, it should be in the south east like Atlanta, Virginia Beach and Raleigh. These cities are farther away from the nations capital and less likely to be prepared for a mass scale attack. With this seemingly sporadic attack pattern, the fear that anywhere could be the next target will be driven home. METHOD OF ATTACK: The specific methods of attack should also be seemingly random, unpredictable and sporadic. Local warriors should be allowed to chose and improvise to a certain attack to this effect. I have provided the following examples that should be shared. In a city like Los Angeles or Atlanta where there are predictable traffic jams and cars are sitting on roadways for long periods of time, a gas attack can be orchestrated while people are trapped in their vehicles. The ensuing panic will be dramatic: scenes of people trying to run away from their vehicles falling in the street. Victims who abandon their vehicles or die inside them will only complicate the traffic more, and first responders will take hours to reach the initial scene of the attack. This will create more injuries than deaths, but the injuries will be significant since medical aid will take so long to arrive, and the psychological effect of attacking people in such an unexpected place and time, when they are incredibly vulnerable, will make up for the lower number of deaths. This attack will be best carried out with a vapor dispersed with a mechanical sprayer or explosive when wind conditions are favorable, blowing directly along the lines of the roadway. The Japanese cult also had good luck with their use on the subway. Because of the high numbers of people and the enclosed space, a subway terminal is ideal. While police in NYC are frequently seen throughout the system, checking bags of passengers coming onto the subway, this is not seen in Washington DC’s metro system. For whatever reason, security in their nation’s capital is much more lax, and hundreds of thousands of people ride the metro system in the mornings. An attack on a subway system is best orchestrated with multiple attacks at once: releasing gas on the train itself after it begins moving will trap those on it and arrive at the next station, open its doors to traumatize people with a car full of death, as well as releasing the gas onto that next terminal increasing victims. An attack on the platform would lead to panic, violence and stampeding like behavior. An attack on the platform followed quickly by an attack near the escalator/exit forcing people back into the system would be the most effective form of killing and increasing panic. People will be jumping and falling on the tracks attempting to escape. Survivors will spread stories of the unbelievable terror, and these stories will be burnt into all Americans who hear them. Trains similarly make for good targets. By the time that word is passed to the conductor, the damage will be done, and if timed well, they will be miles from medical attention and will likely be ordered to stop the train to avoid contaminating a larger area. The gas should also be dispersed from two ends at once, or one end forcing everyone in a single direction and then the second attack should commence. Finally, within a day or days of the initial attacks, depending on the amount of personnel and sarin we are able to acquire, follow on attacks should be orchestrated in completely different venues. This will exponentially increase fear, panic and distress in the collective American psyche. An example would be setting off sarin gas in a crowded grocery store in an area far from any previous attacks. Pumping the gas through a mall ventilation system or in a movie theater after the movie started playing and after sealing the exits shut. While security will be more restrictive after the initial attacks, striking these unrelated targets in unrelated cities should not pose much of a problem. The goal of these attacks is not necessarily to garner the larger number of casualties; even five casualties at each location would be a victory. Because it would solidify in the American’s mind how vulnerable and weak they are, and how their government is incapable of protecting them. EQUIPMENT: As is the prescription for most of this operation, specific techniques should vary and not be uniform, this will slow down the investigation and help prevent follow on attacks from being detected and stopped after the initial attacks are finished. For the smaller scale attacks where the terrorist will be face to face with the victims, a handheld aerosolizer will be sufficient. These can be found in many hardware stores, beauty supplies, etc. This will work especially well in the most closed situations like on a train or metro car. For larger areas or ventilation systems, like the entrance to the metro system, movie theater or malls, small handheld devices can be manufactured easily. The three basic components are the two liquid components of the sarin gas (not mixed until as close to the attack as possible to maintain potency) and a method of propellant (Woodward). The propellent can be just about anything, any type of small explosion will work, or even an improvised devise using fans. This is the place for our agents to get creative. An example would be mixing the liquid components in a plastic water bottle, preferably a more sturdy bottle such as gatorade. Then, place an MRE heater, available at many surplus, camping and outdoors stores, in the bottle. The liquid will cause the chemical heater to activate which will cause an expansion in the bottle until it ultimately bursts. The “explosion” will be nothing more than a loud pop and likely blown off as a prank. But it will quickly disperse the deadly gas in a medium to smaller sized area. For larger sized areas such as on the road, outdoors plazas, etc, our agents will need to start purchasing larger scale dispersers. A back-mounted pesticide sprayer would be an example, or if the situation allows for it, a pressurized paint delivery system sold in hardware stores. Overall, the smaller the better within reason. The less we rely on complicated mechanical equipment, the less chance of failure, detection, or post-attack investigative leads being followed. CONCLUSION: America has been guarded since the 9/11 attacks. What their government knows, but the people seldom realize, is that the real danger is in the small scale attacks. These are the attacks that they cannot hope to deter, that they do not have time or manpower to catch. By using these smaller scale attacks, and by doing so across the country in different venues their media will implode with panic stricken reports, their response infrastructure will be pushed to the limit and broken and their people will emotionally crumble.

References
CDC. (2014, October 07). Emergency Response Card: Sarin. Retrieved from http:// www.cdc.gov/niosh/ershdb/EmergencyResponseCard_29750001.html
Ferrigno, L. (2014, October 8). Syria has four chemical weapons facilities it didn't disclose. Retrieved from http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2014%2F10%2F07%2Fworld %2Fmeast%2Fsyria-chemical-weapons%2F
LaFranchi, H. (2013, August 23). Chemical weapons 101: Six facts about sarin and Syria's stockpile. Retrieved from http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/2013/0426/ Chemical-weapons-101-Six-facts-about-sarin-and-Syria-s-stockpile/What-is-sarin
Reuters. (2013, May 05). Syrian Rebels May Have Used Sarin. Retrieved from http:// www.nytimes.com/2013/05/06/world/middleeast/syrian-rebels-may-have-used-sarin.html
Woodward, P. (2013, December 11). How easy is it to make sarin? Retrieved from http:// warincontext.org/2013/12/11/how-easy-is-it-to-make-sarin/