...Modeling Order Book Fluctuation by Monte Carlo Technique CONTENTS Page no. 1) Certificate 2 2) Acknowledgement 3 3) Abstract 5 4) Introduction 6 5) Simulation code 8 ➢ Order Book 8 ➢ Diffusion 9 ➢ Price and Annihilation 11 ➢ One Trade return 14 ➢ Waiting time between consecutive trades 16 ➢ Conditional return 19 ➢ Hurst curve 20 6) Results and Discussion 22 7) Summary 28 8) Future Prospects 29 9) References ...
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...Applied mathematics in Engineering, Management and Technology 2 (2) 2014:466-475 www.amiemt-journal.com Using a combined method of hierarchical analysis and Monte Carlo simulation in order to identify and prioritize the target market selection criteria (Case study: Food distribution companies of Mashhad-Iran) Amir kariznoee Ph.D. student of Industrial Management,University of Mazandaran ,Iran (Corresponding Author's E-mail: Amir.kariznoee@yahoo.com) Monireh Bijandi Graduate of Accounting in Ferdowsi University of Mashhad,Iran Mahdi Ghayur Maddah Student of Public Management in Ferdowsi University of Mashhad,Iran Vajihe Mogharabi M.A. Student of Information Technology Management, Shahid beheshti University,Tehran,Iran Abstract The aim of this study is to identify and prioritize the key factors in selecting a target market in the food industry. In order to determine the components and subcomponents of this study, we have used previous researches in this area. In order to match these factors with the food industry situation and create a hierarchical structure, we have obtained the opinions of 323 experts about affecting factors on choosing a market in this industry with the use of questionnaire. Then, using a combination of hierarchal analysis process and Monte Carlo simulation and cooperation with 10 senior executives of distribution companies, the weight of each component and sub-component was determined. In general, four components and ten sub-components were...
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...is a computer necessary in conducting a realworld simulation? Answer It is important because there are many different types of outcomes that comes in with simulation. Computers are used in daily life activities and it is necessary. 14-11 What is operational gaming? What is systems simulation? Give examples of how each may be applied. Answer Operational gaming is the use of simulation in competitive situations such as military games and business or management. System simulation ls that deal with the dynamics of large organizational or governmental systems. Validation The process of comparing a model to the real system that it represents to make sure that it is accurate. 14-17 (a) Resimulate the number of stockouts incurred over a 20-week period (assuming Higgins maintains a constant supply of 8 heaters). (b) Conduct this 20-week simulation two more times and compare your answers with those in part (a). Did they change significantly? Why or why not? (c) What is the new expected number of sales per week? Answer A. The number of stockouts incurred over a 20 week period is HOT WATER NUMBER OF HEATER SALES WEEKS THIS PER WEEK NUMBER WAS SOLD 3 2 4 9 5 10 6 15 7 25 8 12 9 12 10 10 B, Two more times would give us the value of a multiplied by 2. c. 25 14-18 A. 15 days of barge uploadings and average number of barges delayed B, They both are probabilistic simulations. Chapter 5 HW 5-14 Using MAD, determine whether...
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...Brooklyn Warren Chapter 10 Simulation Modeling What is Simulation? * To try to duplicate the features, appearance, and characteristics of a real system. * Imitate a real-world situation mathematically. * Study its properties and operating characteristics. * Draw conclusions and make action decisions based on the results. Processes of Simulation: 1. Define Problem 2. Introduce Important Variables 3. Construct Simulation Model 4. Specify Values of Variables to Be Tested 5. Conduct the Simulation 6. Examine the Results 7. Select Best Course of Action Advantages of Simulation: * Straightforward and flexible. * Can handle large and complex systems. * Allows "what-if" questions. * Does not interfere with real-world systems. * Study interactions among variable. * "Time comparison" is possible. * Handles complications that other methods can't. Disadvantages of Simulation: * Can be expensive and time consuming. * Does not generate optimal solutions. * Managers must generate all conditions and constraints. * Each model is unique. Monte Carlo Simulation: Can be used with variables that are probabilistic. Steps: * Establish the probability distribution for each random variable. * Use random numbers to generate random values. * Repeat for some number of replications. Probability Distributions: Historical data Goodness-of-fit tests for common distributions: ...
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...The Mikes Bikes simulation is an exciting and interesting way to gain critical insights into the development of a business. By operating a simulated bicycle manufacturing corporation over a period of ten years was an opportunity to gain insights on a real entrepreneurial experience. It allowed us to expand on the ideas taught in class such as creating a business strategy and using tools like SWOT and Porter’s five forces. We had many assumptions initially regarding the procedures but gradually we could learn the basics by facing enough challenges and by trial and error method. These skills cannot be learned by the usual form of lecturing. Considering our team, this was our first comprehensive exposure to real business environment. Each...
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...combines bricks of different shape and size into structures that are evaluated by how well they perform a desired function. The evolutionary process runs in an environment that has not been unnecessarily constrained by our own preconceptions on how to solve the problem. The results are encouraging. The evolved structures have a surprisingly alien look: they are not based in common knowledge on how to build with brick toys; instead, the computer found ways of its own through the evolutionary search process. We were able to assemble the final designs manually and confirm that they accomplish the objectives introduced with our fitness functions. This chapter discusses background and related work first (section 2), then goes on to describe our methods; first the model we use to simulate Lego structures (sections 3-4), then the representation and evolutionary algorithms (section 5). The results sections (6-7) discuss applications, showing the results of several evolutionary runs and illustrating with pictures of the final assembled Lego...
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...materials such as Ultra/Advanced High Strength Steels (U/AHSS), aluminum alloys, magnesium alloys and boron steels in automotive industry is increasing to reduce vehicle weight and increase crash performance. The use of these relatively new materials requires advanced and reliable techniques to a) obtain data on material properties and flow stress, b) predicting springback and fracture in bending and flanging, c) selecting lubricants and die materials/coatings for stamping and forging and d) designing tools for blanking and shearing. In addition, designing the process and tooling for a) hot stamping of boron steels, b) warm forming of Al and Mg alloys, and c) optimizing the use of servo-drive presses require advanced Finite Element based simulation methods. CPF is conducting R&D in most of these topics and also in many hot and cold forging related topics. This paper gives an overview of this research and discusses how the research results are applied in cooperation with industry. Keywords: Metal Forming, Sheet metal, Forging, FEM 1 INTRODUCTION The Center for Precision Forming (CPF) has been established with funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF) and a number of companies (www.cpforming.org). CPF is an outgrowth of the Engineering Research Center for Net Shape Manufacturing (ERC/NSM – www.ercnsm.org) and conducts research in sheet metal forming while ERC/NSM focuses on cold and hot forging related R&D projects. Both Centers work closely with industry under contract. Thus...
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...County Hospital Simulation Project Abstract The paper offers a simulation model describing the X-ray departments operations in the county hospital. It can be used for testing various process scenarios, for allocation of resources and also conduct activity based cost analysis. The simulation model is used for demonstrating a new operational method that makes the operations at the X-ray department more effective. The operational method is referred to as Triage team method. This method has been it is been studied from two view points. The results showed that the method enhances the X-ray department if properly implemented and it incorporates all the required tasks. County hospital simulation project Introduction The department of x-ray in the county hospital is facing a challenge in the x-ray department. With the increased amount of patients visiting the x-ray department, the challenge to the health care managers is becoming serious. The process undergone and the resources need to be reconsidered to make the operations more efficient. This will also maintain the quality of care. The objective of the department is to ensure that the patients take minimal time in the process. The resources also need to be allocated in the most effective way and by use of more advanced technology. Since X-ray department and the processes therewith are somewhat complicated, and have dynamic variables and has random features, definitely there is a need for a method that is effective. The...
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...INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this paper is to bring out the use of Simulation by Managers of various organizations. Under discussion will be: Definition of simulation. Model construction. When and why it becomes handy to use simulation. Steps used in simulation technique. Random selection in simulation. Advantages / benefits derived from use of simulation technique. Disadvantages /Challenges associated with simulation technique. Role of computer in simulation. Conclusion / comments. Definition of simulation: Simulation can be defined as a quantitative technique which describes a process by developing a model of that process and then conduct a series of organized trial and error experiments to predict the behavior of the process through time often with the aid of a computer. It is a method that is used to solve a problem in many areas of management, for example inventory management, queuing problems, profit analysis and project management among others. Model construction: A successful simulation model has to be carefully designed in order to achieve the intended predictive purpose. Therefore important factors have to be considered such as; i. It must be objective oriented. It must be constructed for a purpose and be able to achieve that purpose. ii. Critical variables and relationships. These must be identified and incorporated in model. However it is not essential or indeed desirable to include all variables in the model. iii. Simplicity...
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...Assignment #1: JET Copies Case Problem Read the “JET Copies” Case Problem on pages 678-679 of the text. Using simulation estimate the loss of revenue due to copier breakdown for one year, as follows: 1. In Excel, use a suitable method for generating the number of days needed to repair the copier, when it is out of service, according to the discrete distribution shown. 2. In Excel, use a suitable method for simulating the interval between successive breakdowns, according to the continuous distribution shown. 3. In Excel, use a suitable method for simulating the lost revenue for each day the copier is out of service. 4. Put all of this together to simulate the lost revenue due to copier breakdowns over 1 year to answer the question asked in the case study. 5. In a word processing program, write a brief description/explanation of how you implemented each component of the model. Write 1-2 paragraphs for each component of the model (days-to-repair; interval between breakdowns; lost revenue; putting it together). 6. Answer the question posed in the case study. How confident are you that this answer is a good one? What are the limits of the study? Write at least one paragraph. Case Problem James Banks was standing in line next to Robin Cole at Klecko’s Copy Center, waiting to use one of the copy machines. “ Gee, Robin, I hate this,” he said. “We have to drive all the way over here from Southgate and then wait in line to use these copy machines...
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...Class: Seminar in Organizational Theory & Behavior Professor :Dr. Dyck's Bio Name: Zhihui Dai Change Management Simulation: Power and Influence Abstract Within this program Change Management Simulation: Power and Influence, I am a Director Product Innovation manager in Spectrum Sunglass Company, which is a private company that designs, manufactures, and sells sunglasses. What I need do is convince people adapt my proposal. I should choose method from 18 change levers that attempt to convince workers to adapt my new proposal that will change their attitude from awareness, interest, trial, to adoption. I must decide the proper method and use the time wisely. Be able to increase credibility and achieve the greatest percentage of adopters. Key words: Convince percentage of adoption credibility limited time This Management Simulation Project from Harvard provides students a virtual experience to convince people in start-up companies. When I started the first test run of the simulation there are various decisions, However, if an administrator make the wrong move, then I lose credibility and set the proposal is a backwards. On the other hand, if I decide on a correct decision, then not only will I get the workers are more interested in my proposal, but it also increases the credibility of the workers. When I was implementing change behavior, building a coalition of support is a important tool to get satisfied from people. When I simulate this behavior, I can have more...
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...Copy Simulation Prepared by Joe Miller Prepared for February 7th 2013 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION SUMMARY JET COPY SIMILATION CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS APPENDIX INTRODUCTION The purpose of this report is to examine the feasibility to for Jet Copy to purchase a second copy machine. Based on copies produced and lost with only the use of one copier. In this report I will use data from a simulation to assist in the determination of an additional copier for Jet Copy. As a reminder that this is a random simulation and the information in the simulation will only assist between when the test stop and 52 week will not have great affect on the outcome of the in the decision making. The simulation that was run was base on a 52 week scenario. The actual results are based on 51 week trial. The difference between the 51 week test and the actual 52 weeks will not have any great impact on the recommendation. ------------------------------------------------- SUMMARY This report creates a simulation that shows one possible outcome for Jet Copier when there one copier is out for repair for up to 4 days. It will also aid in the decision to ad d or not to add a second copier. This report will answer the following questions: 1. Using Excel to generate the number of days needed to repair the copier. 2. Using Excel to generate the interval between successive breakdowns according to continuous distribution. 3. Using Excel, use a suitable method to simulate...
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...is considered formal as they are structured and planned to facilitate the job description. As for the manager’s training in particular, formal settings, such as classroom lectures at the tertiary level or the organization’s own training institution providing coaching by outsourced professionals or the company’s own executives, seminars, workshops and meetings of company’s executives fostering networking and management development are recommended. Whatever the setting are the methodologies applied therein are conceptually the same as they are essentially structured to improve skills and knowledge. The contents of management training normally target issues facing the company as well as bench marking or leaning “best practice”/scenario simulation that...
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...use a suitable method for generating the number of days needed to repair the copier, when it is out of service, according to the discrete distribution shown. JET copies needs to know the number of days they need to repair, when the copy machine is out of service. Using the given table, there are three columns of probability, repair time and cumulative. I used the figures given in case problem for probability and repair time days but for the cumulative column we started at 0.00 cumulative, then added the 0.20 to that to get the cumulative for day 2. For each probability subsequent to the previous we added, so for the 0.45 probability we added the 0.20 to get 0.65. Then repeating the same for the rest of probabilities, after 0.65 the cumulative resulted in 0.90. Then we used the table with ten columns. In the first column starting at A5, the formula entered was the =RAND() function to create random number for the first cell. That function formula was then dragged down to the below cells and locked to have the values be fixed. In the next column, I use the numbers copied from my first column. Then in the G5 column, we entered the function VLOOKUP to find the number of days needed to repair =VLOOKUP(F5,Lookup,2) and dragged the cell to have the same formula for the below cells in the column. Look up, in the VLOOKUP function, is name of the range of cells in B:62 thru C:65 columns. Model number of weeks between breakdowns 2. In Excel, use a suitable method for simulating...
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...com/journal/energies Article A Novel Cogging Torque Simulation Method for Permanent-Magnet Synchronous Machines Chun-Yu Hsiao *, Sheng-Nian Yeh and Jonq-Chin Hwang Department of Electrical Engineering, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Taipei 10607, Taiwan; E-Mails: snyeh@mail.ntust.edu.tw (S.-N.Y.); jchwang@ee.ntust.edu.tw (J.-C.H.) * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: D9607101@mail.ntust.edu.tw; Tel.: +886-921135781; Fax: +886-2-27376699. Received: 16 September 2011; in revised form: 22 November 2011 / Accepted: 30 November 2011 / Published: 6 December 2011 Abstract: Cogging torque exists between rotor mounted permanent magnets and stator teeth due to magnetic attraction and this is an undesired phenomenon which produces output ripple, vibration and noise in machines. The purpose of this paper is to study the existence and effects of cogging torque, and to present a novel, rapid, half magnet pole pair technique for forecasting and evaluating cogging torque. The technique uses the finite element method as well as Matlab research and development oriented software tools to reduce numerous computing jobs and simulation time. An example of a rotor-skewed structure used to reduce cogging torque of permanent magnet synchronous machines is evaluated and compared with a conventional analysis method for the same motor to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The novel method is proved valuable and suitable for large-capacity machine...
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