...In memory of Amos Tversky Contents Introduction Part I. Two Systems 1. The Characters of the Story 2. Attention and Effort 3. The Lazy Controller 4. The Associative Machine 5. Cognitive Ease 6. Norms, Surprises, and Causes 7. A Machine for Jumping to Conclusions 8. How Judgments Happen 9. Answering an Easier Question Part II. Heuristics and Biases 10. The Law of Small Numbers 11. Anchors 12. The Science of Availability 13. Availability, Emotion, and Risk 14. Tom W’s Specialty 15. Linda: Less is More 16. Causes Trump Statistics 17. Regression to the Mean 18. Taming Intuitive Predictions Part III. Overconfidence 19. The Illusion of Understanding 20. The Illusion of Validity 21. Intuitions Vs. Formulas 22. Expert Intuition: When Can We Trust It? 23. The Outside View 24. The Engine of Capitalism Part IV. Choices 25. Bernoulli’s Errors 26. Prospect Theory 27. The Endowment Effect 28. Bad Events 29. The Fourfold Pattern 30. Rare Events 31. Risk Policies 32. Keeping Score 33. Reversals 34. Frames and Reality Part V. Two Selves 35. Two Selves 36. Life as a Story 37. Experienced Well-Being 38. Thinking About Life Conclusions Appendix Uncertainty A: Judgment Under Appendix B: Choices, Values, and Frames Acknowledgments Notes Index Introduction Every author, I suppose, has in mind a setting in which readers of his or her work could benefit from having read it. Mine is the proverbial office watercooler, where opinions are shared and gossip is exchanged. I...
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...Allan and Barbara Pease are the internationally renowned experts in human relations and body language, whose 20 million book sales worldwide have turned them into household names. People's body language reveals that what they say is often very different from what they think or feel. It is a scientific fact that people's gestures give away their true intentions. Every day we are confronted by hundreds of different signals that can mean anything from 'That's a great idea' to 'You must be kidding'. And we are all sending out these signals whether we realise it or not. Now, in this authoritative guide written with great humour and insight, you can learn the secrets of body language to give you more confidence and control in any situation — from negotiating a deal to finding the right partner. Discover the techniques that will show you how to interpret gestures, read the underlying thoughts and emotions — and reach the right conclusions. Front cover photo supplied courtesy of Shufunotomo Co., Ltd. 2-9 Kanda Surugadai, Chiyoda-Ku, Tokyo, Japan Allan Pease is the world's foremost expert on body language. His book Why Men Don't Listen And Women Can't Read Maps co-authored with wife Barbara, has sold over 10 million copies in 48 languages since its release. Allan travels the world lecturing on human communication, has written 8 other bestselling books and appeared in his own television series which attracted over 100 million viewers. Barbara Pease is CEO of Pease International which...
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