CRAP Assignment
1-5 of 50 Guesstimates
13th July 2015

B. ROKESKUMAR
Roll No. 214

1. Find the annual market size of shampoo sachets in India.

Population of India = 1.2 Billion

Percent of higher income group who would prefer shampoo bottles = 30%

So, number of people who would buy shampoo sachets = 0.7 * 1.2 Billion = 84 million

Assuming equal distribution between genders, there are 42 million males and 42 million females.

Assuming males take shampoo bath once in 3 days on an average and females twice in a week.

Males:- Assuming 5ml of shampoo per bath, 5 * 365 days/3 = 5* 122 ~ 600 ml Consumption by males = 42 Mn * 0.6 litre = 25.2 Million litre

Females:- Assuming 10ml of shampoo per bath, 10*2*52 weeks ~ 1000 ml Consumption by females = 42 Mn * 1 litre = 42 Million litre Approximately 70 Million litre going into 10 ml sachets = 7000 Million sachets

On an average, a shampoo sachet of 10ml costs 5 rupees, so 7000 Million * 5 rupees = 35,000 Million or 3,500 Crore rupees.

The annual market size of Shampoo sachets is Rs. 3,500 crore.

2. Guesstimate the number of sedan cars in Delhi.

Population of Delhi = 18 Millions

Assuming the average size of a family being 4, number of households in Delhi = 4.5 Million households

Now, of the population, let’s assume only 40% of the population afford / prefer to buy cars. 40% of 4.5 Million = 1.8 Million households

Now, assuming 20% of them owns 3 cars, 30 % of them owns 2 cars and 50% of them owns only one car.

0.2 * 3 * 1.8 + 0.3 * 2 * 1.8 + 0.5 * 1.8 = 3.06 Million cars.

Now adding a 15% from the remaining households, to account taxis = 0.35 Million cars

Approximately, 3.5 Million cars.

Out of them, assuming 45% of them to be sedans, 35 % of them to be hatchback cars and 20% to be SUVs.

45% of 3.5 Million = 1.5 Million sedan cars in Delhi

3.