...China’s Economic Growth 1978-2025: What We Know Today about China’s Economic Growth Tomorrow Views of the future China vary widely. While some believe that the collapse of China is inevitable, others see the emergence of a new superpower that increasingly poses a threat to the U.S. This paper examines the economic growth prospects of China over the next two decades. Extrapolating past real GDP growth rates into the future, the size of the Chinese economy surpasses that of the U.S. in purchasing power terms between 2012 and 2015; by 2025, China is likely to be the world's largest economic power by almost any measure. The extrapolations are supported by two types of considerations. First, China’s growth patterns of the past 25 years since the beginning of economic reforms match well those identified by standard economic development and trade theories (structural change, catching up, and factor price equalization). Second, decomposing China’s GDP growth into growth of labor and other variables, the near-certain information available today about the quantity and quality of Chinese laborers through 2015, if not several years after, allows inferences about future GDP growth. Short of some cataclysmic event, demographics alone suggests China’s continued economic rise. If talent is randomly distributed in the world population and if agglomeration of talent is important, then the odds are strongly in China’s favor. Introduction The rapid economic growth of China since the...
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...China’s Economic Growth 1978-2025: What We Know Today about China’s Economic Growth Tomorrow Views of the future China vary widely. While some believe that the collapse of China is inevitable, others see the emergence of a new economic superpower that increasingly poses a threat to the U.S. This paper examines the economic growth prospects of China over the next two decades. Extrapolating past real GDP growth rates into the future, the size of the Chinese economy surpasses that of the U.S. in purchasing power terms around 2010. Such extrapolations can be supported by standard growth patterns identified in economic development and trade theories (structural change, catching up, and factor price equalization). They can also be supported by an explanation of China’s past GDP growth through growth of various labor variables, with a subsequent derivation of future GDP growth based on reliable information about future labor quantity and quality. China’s demographic changes and economic growth have a number of implications for China and the world. JEL codes: O1 (O10, O11), O4 (O40, O47), O53, J11, O3, I21 Keywords: economic growth, growth accounting, growth forecasts, development theories, human capital formation, education (all: China) Carsten A. Holz Social Science Division Hong Kong University of Science & Technology Clear Water Bay Kowloon Hong Kong E-mail: socholz@ust.hk Tel/Fax: +852 2719-8557 26 December 2006 (Incorporates minor revisions of the 3 July 2005 and 2 November...
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...answers to the issue by looking into articles that talk with numbers and facts more than feelings, but it was not an easy job because most if these articles will try to predict the future, and they are suggesting soli-tons no one before tried yet, they were only successful...
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...Future Trends in Retirement Tamika Mays SOC304: Social Gerontology Instructor Stephen Ulrich June 12, 2012 Future Trends in Retirement Retirement is considered to be a time of enjoyment. It is the time to enjoy your significant other as well as participate in activities that you love to do. However, as the economy and economy has drastically changed over the past several years, so too has the workforce. This essay will reflect on the future trends in retirement. It will also discuss how the percentage of the American workforce has changed and how gender, age, and racial or ethnic groups impact the employment rate. Due to the drastic economy changes as well as the recession many baby boomers have had to change their retirement plans. Retirees and those close to retirement lack the time to properly recover from job losses, falling home prices, and investment portfolio losses. Their retirement options are to work longer, save more, or settle for a lower standard of living in retirement. It has become a trend for many older Americans to dip into their savings to cope with the change in economy. According to Quadagno, about a quarter of American ages 50 and over report exhausting all their savings and that near half of them have had trouble making ends meet because their household expenses have increased, while the household income has fell. Also, many older Americans are choosing to delay retirement because there is not enough money saved or simply because they cannot afford...
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...issue concerning global manufacturing is the cost of manufacturing. Looking at Exhibit 1 from a study by the Boston Consulting Group titled, “The Shifting Economics of Global Manufacturing”, we can see the top 25 export economies as well as their cost of manufacturing. Considering all of the 25 countries mentioned in this study, the highest cost in each of these economies is labor. Labor is a huge expense for many companies around the world, which drives the global trend of outsourcing labor to countries where it is cheaper in an attempt to lower this cost. The cost of manufacturing in each of these countries is constantly changing since there are so many factors involved. Labor for example is constantly changing and generally becoming more expensive as a country’s economy begins to grow, since workers are becoming more skilled and demanding more rights and higher wages. There are many changes going on in manufacturing and supply chain processes. Particularly, there are 4 forces that are setting countries apart from each other and allowing them to be more competitive. Those are wages, exchange rates, labor productivity, and energy. In my opinion these forces are areas that countries need to focus on improving and maintaining in order to be able to compete effectively with the global manufacturing industry. In terms of wages there is always a constant increase in the hourly pay of workers. Although some countries may be growing at about 10-20 percent and other at 2-3 percent per...
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...databases to research historical economic data and forecast future economic data. This week’s topics help us understand the data we are looking at, which once understood can help us improve the economic future within our country. Understanding our strengths and weaknesses will also help us find economic data to improve the economy. The Federal Reserve Economic Data, also known as FRED, The United States Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics or BLS, and Data.gov are just a few examples of great resources to gather historical economic data as well as economic forecast data. FRED FRED is an online database with thousands of economic data from different resources. It is maintained by the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louise. FRED combines data with other tools that help users understand, interact and display the data. This is important because the data can become overwhelming and difficult to comprehend, but once learned you can learn the science of the economy. Census Bureau Most people think of the census bureau as only providing statistical numbers pertaining to the people of the US, it also provides quantitative data showing the figures from the economic census giving the total numbers of oil and gas production and many other types of businesses. BLS Labor market activity, working conditions, and price changes in the economy are assessed and accountable by the Federal agency Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). “The BLS is the fact-finding agency...
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...the Labor Force There have been many changes in the workforce in the United States. One significant change is women being more involved in the United States labor force. Labor force equals the number of people employed plus the number of people unemployed. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2014), there has been a significant increase in women in the labor force after World War 2. Women’s participation in the labor force rose from the 1960’s through the 1990’s. As presented in the U.S. Bureau of Labor statistics website (2015), the unemployment rate is 5.1% as of August 2015. Unemployment rate is the percentage of the people in the labor force who are unemployed. Since the past until now, there have been more and more women joining the workforce. There have been increases because women do not want to be dependent just on men to provide for them. This society is changing and we all adapt to the changes. One change is that women do not necessarily need men to survive when they can support themselves and their children and be independent. Women did not have equal rights as men did in the past. Women fought hard to have equal rights and participate in the government. In the past, women were to marry, be a housewife and to raise the family, not to work, that was the man’s job. Women still to this day are treated unfair in the workforce. Women have been fighting for more rights in society and in the work force. In the chart accessed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics...
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...Economic Research (NBER'S Macro-Historical Database), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), and Congressional Budget Office (CBO). In addition, the raw data is use for the purpose of measuring past relationships among variables such as historical data, employment, prices, productivity, population, government budget, and government spending. Thus, resulting in economist anticipating change in some variables; in which will either affect or not affect the future course of the U.S. economy short and long run performance. Primary Sources Therefore, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER'S Macro-Historical Database) was founded in 1920 over the years the NBER's research agenda has varied from a wide variety of issues that confront our economic society. Early research focused on the aggregate economy, examining in detail the business cycle and long-term economic growth. Whereby, its known as private, non-profit, non-partisan research organization's main aim is to promote greater understanding of how the economy works. It disseminates unbiased economic research among public policymakers, business professionals and the academic community. Today, some 1,300 academics are NBER researchers, and they focus on "four types of empirical research: developing new statistical measurements, estimating quantitative models of economic behavior, assessing the effects of public policies on the U.S. economy, and projecting the effects of alternative policy...
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...political world. This would increase border enforcement with legalization for unauthorized immigrants and the ability to bring in workers needed by the U.S. labor market. Debated in the U.S. Senate in 2006, 2007, and 2013, CIR would touch virtually every facet of the U.S. immigration system (Gelatt, Julia; Batalova, Jeanne and Lowell, B. Lindsay). The CIR in 2003 recommended a strategy based on an enhanced border and visa management. This is to prevent both the illegal future entries and visa abuses by those already here. This will also improve worksite and enforcement of the ban of illegal immigrants working and employers from hiring them, the speedy removal of illegal immigrants apprehended within the country. The CIR made no mention of any need to adopt any amnesty for those illegal immigrants already in the country. With the nation’s experiences in the past with such programs had demonstrated they only serve to foster more illegal immigration in the country. There is no ambiguity in the existing laws, which clearly states that non-citizens who are...
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...CONTINUALLY INCREASING, AN ECONOMY MUST PRODUCE MORE GOODS AND SERVICES SIMPLY TO MAINTAIN ITS STANDARD OF LIVING, AS MEASURED BY OUTPUT PER CAPITA. IF OUTPUT GROWS FASTER THAN THE POPULATION, THE STANDARD OF LIVING RISES. An economy’s standard of living grows over the long run because of (a) increases in the amount and quality of resources, especially labor and capital; (b) better technology; and (c) improvements in the rules of the game that facilitate production and exchange, such as tax laws, property rights, patent laws, the legal system, and customs of the market. The per-worker production function shows the relationship between the amount of capital per worker in the economy and the output per worker. As capital per worker increases, so does output per worker, but at a decreasing rate. Technological change and improvements in the rules of the game shift the per-worker production function upward, so more is produced for each ratio of capital per worker. Since 1870, U.S. labor productivity growth has averaged 2.1 percent per year. The quality of labor and capital is much more important than the quantity of these resources. Labor productivity growth slowed between 1974 and 1982, in part because of spikes in energy prices and implementation of costly but necessary environmental and workplace regulations. Since 1983 productivity growth has picked up, especially since 1996, due primarily to information technology. Among the seven major industrial market economies, the United...
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...per share on their first offering, the number of shares has increased. In March 1974, Walmart declared its first cash dividend of $0.05 per share. Walmart has increased its dividend every year since its first dividend (http://investors.walmartstores.com/ phoenix.zhtml?c). Walmart Current and Future Sales Revenue According to all the data that has been evaluated, Walmart is the largest retailer in the world. By the end of January 2010, Wal-Mart had more than $400 billion in revenue, $24 billion in operating income, about 8,500 stores, and nearly 1 billion square feet of space. According to statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau, about 10% and 20% total of retail and grocery sales in the US. The company controls the US retail surroundings and is growing globally at a fast pace. The company recorded revenues of $408.214 million during the financial year ended January, 2010, an increase of 0.9% over 2009. The operating profit of the company was $23,950 million in FY2010, and increase of 5.1% over 2009. The net profit was $14, 335 million in FY2010, an increase of 7% over 2009 (Datamonitor, 2010). Walmart Current and Future Profits Wal-Mart Stores serves customers and members more than 200 million times per week at...
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...Unemployment in Nevada Abstract Unemployment, one of the two evils of macroeconomics, is defined as the number of people who are actively looking for work but are not currently employed. The rate of unemployment is quite often used as a measure of the health of our economy. To help calculate unemployment rates, data is collected by the U.S. Census Bureau in the form of a survey called the Current Population Survey. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is responsible for analyzing and publishing that data. In reviewing the data specific to the state of Nevada, we have found Nevada’s unemployment is being affected by both national and state government. Many factors including unskilled workers, a housing glut, and Nevada’s unique industries contributed to its record low state of unemployment. Nevada’s recovery will depend on the improvement on the overall economy in order for people to justify higher discretionary spending in a state that relies so heavily on tourism. Unemployment Overview The simple definition of unemployment is the number of people who are actively looking for work but are not currently employed. Unemployment is more complex than its definition reveals, however. Several factors are considered to determine whether one is counted as unemployed. There are three types of unemployment: • Structural — this type of unemployment occurs when there are more people looking for jobs than are available at the current wage rate. People may be unemployed because...
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...ECONOMICS FOR DEMOCRATIC AND OPEN SOCIETIES PROJECT POLICY PAPER #2 The Economics of Outsourcing: How Should Policy Respond? Abstract Outsourcing is a central element of economic globalization, representing a new form of competition. Responding to outsourcing calls for policies that enhance national competitiveness and establish rules ensuring acceptable forms of competition. Viewing outsourcing through the lens of competition connects with early 20th century American institutional economics. The policy challenge is to construct institutions that ensure stable, robust flows of demand and income, thereby addressing the Keynesian problem while preserving incentives for economic action. This was the approach embedded in the New Deal, which successfully addressed the problems of the Depression era. Global outsourcing poses the challenge anew and calls for creative institutional arrangements to shape the nature of competition. Thomas Palley Economics for Democratic and Open Societies Project Washington DC 20010 e-mail: mail@thomaspalley.com March 2006 1 “A wild horse can do a lot of damage, but a bridled horse can be an invaluable asset.” Posted by Proud UAW Member in response to “Politics of Globalization” at www.thomaspalley.com, December 27, 2005. I. Understanding outsourcing Outsourcing is a central element of globalization, and policymakers need to understand its economic basis if they are to develop effective policy responses. The practice of outsourcing should...
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...that common sense and compassion in the workplace has been replaced by litigation. Today’s work environment is filled with conflicts, and diverse motivators’ fuel concerns surfacing from a wide variety of situations. Emotions are at the forefront of litigation; misunderstandings, confusion, and frustrations of balancing home and workplace are among the top contributors (Gilbert, n.d.). In this litigious environment, keeping within the multitude of new employment laws and regulations can prove difficult if HR processes are not properly in place. Employee-related regulations include those of the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL), Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC), Americans with Disability Act of 1990 (ADA), andthe Department of Homeland Security, all of which are put in place to protect the U.S. worker. The drastic changes in employment laws combined with an uncertain future have caused many workers to feel undervalued and expendable. This loss of job security has brought unrest to many employees, causing feelings of animosity against employers. This coupled with misconceptions of employment laws, employee rights, or entitlements can increase the...
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...Executive Summary Europe: The aging trend in Europe is in most place they are growing older. According to the European Commission (2012) “while the population of Europe will be slightly higher in 2060 (517 million, up from 502 million in 2010), the population will be much older. While longer lives are indeed a great achievement the aging of the population also poses significant challenges for the economies”. The share of those aged 15-64 is projected to decline from 67% to 56% while those aged 65 and over is projected to rise from 17% to 30%. This will cause Europe to go from have four people of working age to each aged over 65 to a mere two people of working age (European Commission, 2012). ● “The total number of workers is projected to decline by 15.7 million over the forecast horizon to 195.6 million in 2060. ● The decline in the workforce will act as a drag on growth and per capita income, with a consequent trend decline in potential growth. The latter is estimated to converge to below 1,5% in real terms in the long-term in the EU. Moreover, the demographic changes are expected to have substantial consequences on public finances in the EU. ● On the basis of current policies, age-related public expenditures (pensions, health-care and long-term care) are projected to increase by 4.1 percentage points to around to around 29% of GDP between 2010 and 2060”. The economics of depopulation are dark. At full employment, the real GDP has a good chance of declining...
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