...GLOBAL PROSPECTS AND THEIR LIKELY IMPACT ON SOUTH AFRICA INDEX: Table of Contents Global prospects and their likely impact on South Africa 1 INDEX: 1 Strength of the Recovery 2 Developed Countries: 2 Emerging Markets: 2 Risks to the Global Economy 3 Exit Strategy from Policy Stimulus 4 Repair and reform of the financial sector 4 Fiscal Crises and underinvestment in Infrastructure 4 Socio and Political Implications of Unemployment and Private Demand 5 Asset Price Collapse and the risk appetite of investors 5 Return to Previous Growth Path or Not 5 Will the current crises be “DÉJÀ VU ‘” for the world wide economy? 6 Fundamental Changes in Origins & Nature of Economic Activity 6 Global warming / Climate Change: 7 Population Growth: 7 Power shift to the east: 7 Innovation: 7 Economic Activity: 7 Impact of Global Crisis on South Africa’s Growth Outlook 8 Conclusion 8 BIBLIOGRAPHY: 10 STRENGTH OF THE RECOVERY All of the world’s high-income countries returned to positive real GDP growth during the fourth quarter of 2009 and the Economist Intelligence Unit’s forecasts for 2010 indicate a return to marginally below the growth trajectory that was achieved prior to the recession. Developed Countries: UNITED STATES Economic recovery in the US has been remarkably strong, with fourth quarter real GDP growth of almost 6% suggesting the presence of a “V”-shaped trend. Further, news emanating from recently published official data includes a recovery of private...
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...environment changes in the last couple of years have had a significant impact on the sectors of the world economy more so the airline sector, with this in mind the term paper focused on the impact of changes in the international business environment on the airline industry. International business environment is viewed as the most contexts for international business and comprehending how forces in this environment impact the business operations is the difference between business failure and success. To this end, the research established various changes in the business environment that have taken place in political, economic, financial and socio-cultural circles. Political changes especially the Arab spring have had far reaching impact on the airline sector with fall in passenger numbers to these destination as well as the rise in fuel prices negatively impacting the growth of the industry, political instability in other areas as well as laws regulating the airline sector have been on the rise as countries seek to protect local airlines, the economic crisis slowed down the growth of the sector but with the recovery process on track, the airline industry is expected to grow into the foreseeable future, issues such a new taxes for example carbon tax in Europe, the unstable foreign exchange market and inflationary pressures continue to impact the industry growth. Financial changes after the 2008 financial crisis have also affected the sector with stringent borrowing terms imposed as...
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...Employment Working Paper No. 74 2011 Global economic crisis, gender and employment: The impact and policy response Naoko Otobe Employment Sector Copyright © International Labour Organization First published 2011 Publications of the International Labour Office enjoy copyright under Protocol 2 of the Universal Copyright Convention. Nevertheless, short excerpts from them may be reproduced without authorization, on condition that the source is indicated. For rights of reproduction or translation, application should be made to ILO Publications (Rights and Permissions), International Labour Office, CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland, or by email: pubdroit@ilo.org. The International Labour Office welcomes such applications. Libraries, institutions and other users registered with reproduction rights organizations may make copies in accordance with the licences issued to them for this purpose. Visit www.ifrro.org to find the reproduction rights organization in your country. Otobe, Naoko Global economic crisis, gender and employment : the impact and policy response / Naoko Otobe ; International Labour Office, Employment Sector. - Geneva: ILO, 2011 1 v. (Employment working paper) ISBN: 9789221241690; 9789221241706 (web pdf) ISSN 1999-2939 (print); ISSN 1999-2947 (web pdf) International Labour Office; Employment Sector women workers / men workers / employment / unemployment / gender equality / employment policy / social policy / economic recession / developed countries / developing...
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...Impact of Global financial crisis On Pakistan By: Nauman Ayubi Butt Roll # 8511 Table of contents 1) Reason of choosing this topic 2) Introduction 3) The term ‘Financial Crises’ 4) Financial Crisis 2007-2009 5) Causes of the crisis 6) The crisis getting global 7) The Financial crisis and Pakistan: 8) Sectoral impact of the crisis in Pakistan: 9) External sector impact i) Exports ii) Imports 10) Financial Sector impact on i) Foreign exchange ii) Banking sector iii) Circular debt iv) Stock market: 11) Inflation 12) Economic business sector impact i) Impact on textile industry 13) Social Sector Impacts 14) Poverty and unemployment: 15) IMF 16) Technique to tackle the situation Reason for choosing this topic: The reason for choosing this topic is that it has a direct relationship with the poverty, unemployment, literacy, wealth distribution and also with the increased level of terrorism in Pakistan. Introduction: Capitalism is an economic system in which land labor production pricing and distribution are all determined by the market. There is a strong history of capitalism that it can shift from extended period of rapid growth to very short periods of contraction The global financial crisis in 2008-09 which are still on the go, they actually started from the 20th century and they have been increasing since then. In the end of 20th century the U.S housing prices after a multiyear started declining, the mortgage prices had been at...
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...International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an organization which monitors the currency and free trade, provides financial assistance, and maintains international financial operations. IMF is committed to promote world finance, strengthen financial stability, and enhance the sustainable development of free trade (Hill, 2013). Nowadays, the global financial is in a critical period, and IMF plays an important role for providing members with loans, monitoring and adjusting international cooperation on currency issues, and regulatory system (Rajan, 2008). IMF for economic governance and reform has been making a great progress and improvement since 2010 (Stijn, & Mayhan, 2013). IMF involved in supervision of each member of the financial management and the world economy function scope is quite large. This is because of the function definition is not clear, which resulting the unclearness in the division of labor with other international institutions. So as to some developed countries put pressure on developing countries, the media, as well as the incentives cannot be relatively reasonable standard based on the exercise of power. The functions of the broad and excessive monopoly will eventually bankrupt because of inefficiencies. Therefore, how the function of IMF is its detailed specification of global governance is an important start (IMF, 2013). Firstly, the method of IMF to solve problems is essentially based on the regulatory and assistance. However, IMF often has greater demand on financing...
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...Causes of Economic Crisis of 2008 and its resulting Recession Student’s Name Institution Introduction The economic crisis of 2008 which began in the United States had great impact in the global economy. The economic crisis began slowly and grew into global economic crisis. It has affected the stock markets to the extent of stopping operations. In the US it is an issue which has been used as a campaign tool for presidential candidates to request for votes during their campaigns. Due to the crisis many US citizens have felt its impact and even lost their jobs. The crisis began with the United States housing market and gradually resulted into liquidity crisis (Steil, 2009). It is in this regard that this paper looks into the causes of the economic crisis of 2008 and its resulting recession. Causes of the 2008 crisis and its resulting recession Actually, the United States experienced many serious problems that included frozen money markets, plummeting dollar, banks on the threshold of bankruptcy, declining stock market, high levels of public debt and the impending threat of recession. According to some economists, the economic crisis was mainly affected by the world imbalances, perceptions of interest rates, risks and the regulations of the financial system. The following are the main causes of the economic crisis of 2008: Housing Crash The United States housing market is one of the main determinants...
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...top exporters and is attracting record amounts of foreign investment. In turn, they are investing billions of dollars abroad. The collapse in international export markets that accompanied the global financial crisis of 2009 initially hit China hard. But they stand strong their economy and quickly returning to growth. In 2011, China formally overtook Japan to become the world's second-largest economy. Todays, the connection between China's economy and global economy is becoming tighter. In addition, more foreigners have expressed their admirations on China's economic achievements. They generally believe that the global economic development cannot go without China. The healthy and steady economic development of China is a huge contribution to the world. As the globalization is accelerating, the mutual dependence between China's economy and global economy has also strengthened. China is developing its transformation of economic growth mode and its economic structural adjustment. China's economic development is also becoming steadier and injecting new energy into the regional and global economy. The negative impact caused by the international financial crisis still has not completely solved but China's steady economic development gives the world's confidence on the early recovery of the global economy. China is categories as the fastest growing country in East Asia. Between the year of 1979 and 2001, Chinese real GDP grew from $177 billion to $1.16 trillion regarding to 2001 prices...
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...www.capitalvia.com Global Research Limited IMPACT of GREECE White Paper - Impact of Greece Crisis Global Research Limited Introduction Historically, financial crisis tend to lead to sharp economic downturns, low government revenues, widening government deficits, high levels of debt, pushing many governments into defaults. This is called SOVEREGIN DEBT CRISIS. GREECE is currently facing this, it accumulated high levels of debt during the decade before the crisis, when capital markets were highly liquid. As the crisis has unfolded and there was liquidity crunch in world economy, Greece may no longer be able to rol over its maturing debt obligations. Build – Up To The Current Crisis Between 2001-2008, Greece reported budget deficits averaged 5% per year, compared to Eurozone average of 2%. Also, its current account deficits averaged to 9% per year compared to Eurozone average of 1% Greece funded these twin deficits by borrowing in international capital markets, leaving it with chronically high external debt (115% of GDP in 2009) Some of the facts which can be depicted from following charts : www.capitalvia.com 2 White Paper - Impact of Greece Crisis Global Research Limited How Country Debts And Budget Deficits Compare? Projected budget deficit for 2009 Budget deficit figs as % of GDP Debt as % of GDP UK 13% Greece 12.5% Spain 11.25% Ireland 54.3% 68.6% 112.6% 65.8% 10.75% 114.6% 5.3% Italy Germany 3.5% 74.3% Source:...
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...Preliminary Draft February 20, 2010 THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS AND SOUTH ASIA By Dr. Akmal Hussain, Distinguished Professor, Beaconhouse National University INTRODUCTION What began as a financial crisis in 2008 rapidly metastasized into a global economic crisis that pushed the world economy into the deepest recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. In this paper we will examine the origins and nature of this crisis in the context of the dynamics of world capitalism, indicate the policy challenges in the process of recovery and analyze its impact on South Asia. I. STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND FRAGILITY OF THE FINANCIAL SPHERE In the process of its growth the world economy has undergone a structural change in the post war period in terms of two important features: (i) The dominant form of the production unit of goods and services that emerged in the post war period was the large multinational corporation (MNC) in contrast to the large national corporation in the late 19th century and the small firm in the late 18th century.1 The MNCs were not only able to sell goods and services on a global scale but were able to achieve internationalization in their production processes, such that different components of a particular good could be manufactured in their facilities in different countries to take advantage of country specific resource 1 For a more detailed analysis of Growth and Structural Change in the Global Economy since the Industrial Revolution...
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...Positive and Negative Effects of the Global Financial Crisis Harlita H. Tomlinson Capella University BMGT8114: Accounting in the Global Era Dr. Wendy Achilles June 8,2014 Table of Contents Abstract 3 Positive and Negative Effects of the Global Financial Crisis 4 Background on the Global Financial Crisis 5 Global Financial Crisis and Its Negative Effects 9 Lack of Financial Sector Regulation and Oversights 9 Increase in the Number of Bankruptcies 11 Global Financial Crisis and Its Positive Effects 12 Designing Regulations to Monitor the Financial Sector 12 Global Governance as a Side Effect of the Global Financial Crisis 13 Lessons Learned 16 Domestic Lessons Learned 16 Global Lessons Learned 17 Lessons from Romania. 18 The Role of Financial Executives in GFC 19 Conclusions 21 References 24 Abstract The first financial crisis of the twenty-first century has not yet ended, according to Gorton and Metrick (2012), the wave of research on the crisis has already exceeded any single reader’s capacity, with the pace of new work only making this task harder. The Global Financial Crisis is considered by many economists to be the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Global Financial Crisis resulted in the threat of the total collapse of large financial institutions, the bailout of banks by national governments, and market downturns around the world. In the aftermath of this crisis, the housing market declined significantly and has not...
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...more international trade, it will make the globalization and the globalization has more benefits. For example, it can reduce the goods costing, which some countries can open the factories on China. However, the globalization has some disadvantages. For example, the global financial crisis occurred on 2008. This essay is going to analyses how globalization and global financial crisis in the business environment impact on the organization you work in and the tasks you undertake. The globalization refers to the system of contact among the countries of the world in order to improve the global economy. The globalization is the amalgamation of economics and societies all over the world. Globalization including economic, technological, political, and cultural exchanges made possible largely by advances in communication, transportation, and infrastructure (Hotbabefacthicks, 2010). The global financial crisis refers to a widespread economic emergency that began in 2007. Beginning with the crash of the United States financial system, the crisis quickly spread worldwide, thanks to the interconnected marks of modern global trading systems. It is still impossible to fully explain the effects of the global financial crisis, as the disaster continues to damage and impede markets worldwide even several years after the initial event (wiseGEEK, 2003-2012). To make the information more clear, we have an interview with two businesses Page 1 people, first...
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...International Threats The impact of the global financial crisis on the world economy A Review of the Literature Foundation Year, BSc (Hons) in Banking and Finance Valikhujaev Voriskhon CA2394385 Group #112 Gerson Lapid, Mirzahidov Mirsodiq November 28, 2009 Abstract Two years have passed since the most severe global financial crisis launched in the USA. During this short period of time a lot has been made by the governments of the countries that suffered from the crisis. Yet, it is still expected that they need to implement more in order to eradicate the negative impacts from the crisis. Only the time will show which country or countries really succeeded in overcoming the crisis and which still need to learn. This paper focuses on how the crisis started, discusses its the main causes, analyses what made it spread to other countries and how much it cost to countries involved in international trading. The impact of the global financial crisis on the world economy A Review of the Litearture The beginning of the 21st century was marked by the start of one of the severest financial crisis that affected dramatically almost all countries of the world. Launched in the USA, in 2008 due to the failure of Lehman Brothers investment bank, it spread out quickly to other countries destroying...
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...Paper - Impact of Greece Crisis Global Research Limited Introduction Historically, financial crisis tend to lead to sharp economic downturns, low government revenues, widening government deficits, high levels of debt, pushing many governments into defaults. This is called SOVEREGIN DEBT CRISIS. GREECE is currently facing this, it accumulated high levels of debt during the decade before the crisis, when capital markets were highly liquid. As the crisis has unfolded and there was liquidity crunch in world economy, Greece may no longer be able to rol over its maturing debt obligations. Build – Up To The Current Crisis Between 2001-2008, Greece reported budget deficits averaged 5% per year, compared to Eurozone average of 2%. Also, its current account deficits averaged to 9% per year compared to Eurozone average of 1% Greece funded these twin deficits by borrowing in international capital markets, leaving it with chronically high external debt (115% of GDP in 2009) Some of the facts which can be depicted from following charts : www.capitalvia.com 2 White Paper - Impact of Greece Crisis G lobal Research Limited How Country Debts And Budget Deficits Compare? Projected budget deficit for 2009 Budget deficit figs as % of GDP Debt as % of GDP 68.6% UK 13% 112.6% Greece 12.5% 54.3% Spain 11.25% 65.8% Ireland 10.75% 114.6% Italy 5.3% 74.3% Germany 3.5% Source: European Commission / Economic forecast...
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...The current economic situation has divided opinion on the use of trade protectionism.’ Discuss. ECONOMIC CRISIS AND PROTECTIONISM: A DISCUSSION Introduction First and foremost to logically explore the question at hand, the meaning of trade protectionism must be fully comprehended, according to Amadeo (2012) “Trade protectionism is used by countries when they think their industries are being damaged by unfair competition by other countries” The fundamental commotion of the pre-Great Recession on the economic order that was based on the assumption of inherent value of unlimited trade and capital flows has led to the new emergence of debate on trade protectionism as the means of combating the present crisis. In particular, the European Union (EU) nations have seen increasing calls for the implementation of the more protectionist economic policies. However, given the integrated and interconnected nature of both modern and specific national economies, one may note that protectionist policies would be more likely to hurt economic recovery and contribute to the sharpening of international trade contradictions. This paper presents an account of both parties’ argument, with the recourse to respective quantitative data, in order to substantiate the claim on infeasibility of treating protectionism as a cure for global and European economies’ maladies. The Impact of Protectionism on Crisis and Post-Crisis Developments According to Henn & McDonald (2011), trade protectionist...
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...finances, capital, information, technologies, goods and services. The cross border assimilation can be social, economic, cultural, or political. But most of the people fear cultural and social assimilation as they believe this would have a negative impact on the existing culture of their society. Globalization therefore has mostly narrowed down to economic integration and this mainly happens through three channels; flow of finance, trade of goods and services and capital movement. Globalization is a term that includes a wide range of social and economic variations. It encompasses topics like the cultural changes, economics, finance trends, and global market expansion. There are positive and negative effects of globalization - it all comes as a package. Globalization helps in creating new markets and wealth, at the same time it is responsible for extensive suffering, disorder, and unrest. The great financial crisis that just happened is the biggest example of how negative globalization can turn. It clearly reveals the dangers of an unstable, deregulated, global economy. At the same time, this gave rise to important global initiatives, striving towards betterment. Globalization is a factor responsible for both repression and the social boom. What happens when there is a growing integration of economies across the globe? Majorly there have been positive impacts of this global phenomenon - through liberalization, privatization and globalization (LPG). Due to globalization, there has...
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