...2 How Did We Get There? 2.1 2.2 2.3 The Panic of 1907 and Its Aftermath Bank Competition, Financial Innovation and Risk-Taking in the Last Decades of the 20th Century Risk-Taking Incentives of Financial Institutions 249 253 253 258 264 3 The New Banking Model of Manufacturing Tail Risk 4 Alternative Explanations of the Financial Crisis 5 Conclusion A Appendix: Tail Risk in the Rest of the World References 273 292 311 314 320 Foundations and Trends R in Finance Vol. 4, No. 4 (2009) 247–325 c 2010 V. V. Acharya, T. Cooley, M. Richardson and I. Walter DOI: 10.1561/0500000025 Manufacturing Tail Risk: A Perspective on the Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 Viral V. Acharya1 , Thomas Cooley2 , Matthew Richardson3 and Ingo Walter4 1 2 3 4 Stern USA, Stern USA Stern USA Stern USA School of Business, New York University, New York, NY 10012, vacharya@stern.nyu.edu School of Business, New York University, New York, NY 10012, School of Business, New York University, New York, NY 10012, School of Business, New York University, New York, NY 10012, Abstract We argue that the fundamental cause of the financial crisis of 2007–2009 was that large, complex financial institutions (“LCFIs”) took excessive leverage in the form of manufacturing tail risks that were systemic in nature and inadequately capitalized. We employ a set of headline facts about the build-up of such risk exposures to explain how and why LCFIs adopted this new banking model during 2003–2Q 2007, relative to earlier...
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...The Great Depression The Great Depression was an extremely severe worldwide economic downturn that left many homeless and even more jobless. The depression originated in the U.S., but affected many countries throughout the world. The time period of The Great Depression varied depending on the country, but first began in the late 1920’s. It ended in the late 1930’s or early 1940’s when the Second World War began. It devastated virtually everyone, rich and poor, people of all occupations. The term was first coined by British economist Lionel Robbins who wrote a book in 1934 called “The Great Depression” but popularized by President Herbert Hoover in a statement: “I need not recount to you that the world is passing through a great depression.” The cause of The Great Depression is still an open debate amongst economists and historians. Theorists can be split into two major categories: classical economists and Keynesian economists. When classical economists theorize The Great Depression, they focus on how central banking decisions lead to overinvestment and an economic bubble, or on the supply of gold which backed many currencies at that time. Keynesian economists, on the other hand, blame underconsumption and overinvestment or government and banking incompetence. Many agreed that the main event which spurred The Great Depression was the crash of the stock market in 1929. Known to most as Black Tuesday: the most famous stock market downturn in American history, October 29, 1929...
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...The Federal Reserve Bank As the United States moves towards a globally interdependent marketplace, the global monetary stakes have become much higher. The United States Congress established the Federal Reserve in the early 1900’s. A country’s debt can now become the world’s debt, and the role of the U.S. federal banking system is now considerably more under pressure and scrutiny than ever before. As we have been seeing with the current liquidity crisis in the U.S., and how it has affected U.K. and Asian markets, strong, comprehensive policy-making is now crucial to sustaining long-term economic viability. The American economy is a complex balance of services, financial, manufacturing, agricultural, and banking industries. For this reason, the U.S. is a global economy, relying upon foreign investments and trade to create and retain wealth. Over the years, America has evolved from farming-based, to industrial, to a services-based economy. As a result, the banking system from its inception has weathered the many growing pains associated with a new government and currency, instituting regulations and a centralized bank to examine the economy, and implementing policies intended to offset factors negatively affecting the general financial health of the country. Despite the growing need for quick, precise actions by the Federal Reserve System, the decision-making regarding the economy is often met with controversy. The recent bail out plan, passed by Congress...
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...issue using techniques to speak to the consumer at a subconscious level. Monetary policy by far is a significant factor in the survival and well being of any nation. It can destroy or exalt any nation through policies that effect how the economy and money interact. Ranging from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank to the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, these banks were deployed to attend the dire need of keeping monetary value stable; at what ever cost. Though for the best interest, centralized banks have helped and hurt their respective economies in many different ways. “During the nineteenth century and the beginning of the twentieth century, financial panics plagued the nation, leading to bank failures and business bankruptcies that severely disrupted the economy. The failure of the nation's banking system to effectively provide funding to troubled depository institutions contributed significantly to the economy's vulnerability to financial panics” (Fox 1). I will be proving, as a liberal, how failed monetary policies of the Federal Reserve were the ongoing cause of the Great Depression. The onset of the Great Depression can be traced back to August 1929. In the fall of 1930, 15 months had passed since the beginning of the contraction; the economy finally began to appear poised for recovery. The last three contractions has lasted an average of 15 months. However,...
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...Part I: Pre-crisis time, what caused crisis, reasons of collapse In 1920s the economic progress in United States seemed everywhere, as Americans emerged from the self-imposed rationing and sacrifice of World War I and went on a buying spree. Millions of people across the country bought their first everything—their first automobile, washing machine, camera, radio, refrigerator. These products came off America’s assembly lines in an endless stream. More people were at work in U.S. factories and production plants than ever before, producing more goods than ever before. The U.S. economy was sometimes compared to an economic miracle. Consumers in the United States were not the only ones to experience good times. U.S. investors had also had a field day. Overseas, U.S. investments nearly doubled from $3.98 billion in 1919 to $7.5 billion by 1929. The New York Stock Exchange, which served for many as the truest indicator of the nation’s economic pulse, enjoyed phenomenal growth, especially after 1923. Stock purchases on the Exchange increased four-fold between 1923 and 1930. And stock sales were only outstripped by the rise in stock prices. Altogether, investment in the stock market and in bonds rose sharper than any other economic indicator during the decade, faster, in fact, than the actual production or sales of manufactured goods. During the 1920s a would-be investor could make his or her stock purchases largely on credit. Under the rules in place for the New York Stock Exchange,...
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...FINAL ESSAY - US HISTORY COURSE (2013) Topic: Write an essay discussing the problems created by the Great Depression and actions taken by the federal government to solve these problems The Great Depression was the period of worldwide economic depression which happened from 1929 to about 1941. Although it was a global event, the United States was the country attracting the most attention of people all around the world, which resulted in its great influence to the global economy. Some people said that the Great Depression created problems which weakened the U.S, while others argued that thanks to it, the nation had opportunity to fix itself and experienced a following long prosperous period. My essay will discuss the problems caused by the Great Depression and actions taken by the Federal government and the President to solve these problems. After years by years of optimism, development and prosperity, it was on Tuesday, October 29th,1929 , called “Black Tuesday” when the U.S officially faced the despair of the Great Depression with the Crash of the Stock Market. Though the Falling of the Stock Market was not the only cause of the Great Depression, it was the starting point of a decade of high unemployment, poverty, low profits, deflation, plunging farm incomes, and lost opportunities for economic growth and personal advancement. The main effect was a sudden and loss of confidence in the economic future. What were the problems created by...
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...Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve (Cambridge University Press, 2008), the intellectual consensus that had characterized macroeconomics has disappeared. hat consensus emphasized eicient markets, rational expectations, and the eicacy of the price system in assuring macroeconomic stability. he 2008–2009 recession not only destroyed the professional consensus about the kinds of models required to understand cyclical luctuations but also revived the credit-cycle or asset-bubble explanations of recession that dominated thinking in the nineteenth century and irst half of the twentieth century. hese “market-disorder” views emphasize excessive risk taking in inancial markets and the need for government regulation. he present book argues for the alternative “monetary-disorder” view of recessions. A review of cyclical instability over the last two centuries places the 2008–2009 recession in the monetary-disorder tradition, which focuses on the monetary instability created by central banks rather than on a boom-bust cycle in inancial markets. Robert L. Hetzel is Senior Economist and Research Advisor in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, where he participates in debates over monetary policy and prepares the bank’s president for meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee. Dr. Hetzel’s research on monetary policy and the history of central banking has appeared in publications such as the Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking; the Journal of Monetary...
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...reflect stock changes and recordings. Dow Jones & Company, publisher of the Wall Street Journal, was founded in 1874 by reporters Charles Dow, Edward Jones and Charles Bergstresser. Jones converted the small "Customers' Afternoon Letter" into the "Wall Street Journal", which was first published in 1889. They used the telegraph to deliver stock and bond prices on the New York Stock Exchange. J. P. Morgan was an entrepreneur who became a king of corporate bankers. Morgan arranged the merger of Edison General Electric and Thomson-Houston Electric Company forming General Electric. Also, he financed the creation of the Federal Steel Company; he merged several steel and iron businesses thus forming the United States Steel Corporation. U.S. Steel was the first billion-dollar company in the world with capital of $1.4 billion. Morgan also resolved the crisis of The Panic of 1907, in which major New York banks were nearing bankruptcy. Morgan personally took charge and save the economy from crippling. In the 1920's, things were really good in the US. The increase in companies and technology booming was causing growth in the economy. People had more income, and so they spent more resulting in stock prices to skyrocket. People were investing billions in to the stock market expecting to make...
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...chapters describing the structure of the Federal Reserve System and the money supply process, we mentioned three policy tools that the Fed can use to manipulate the money supply and interest rates: open market operations, which affect the quantity of reserves and the monetary base; changes in discount lending, which affect the monetary base; and changes in reserve requirements, which affect the money multiplier. Because the Fed’s use of these policy tools has such an important impact on interest rates and economic activity, it is important to understand how the Fed wields them in practice and how relatively useful each tool is. In recent years, the Federal Reserve has increased its focus on the federal funds rate (the interest rate on overnight loans of reserves from one bank to another) as the primary indicator of the stance of monetary policy. Since February 1994, the Fed announces a federal funds rate target at each FOMC meeting, an announcement that is watched closely by market participants because it affects interest rates throughout the economy. Thus, to fully understand how the Fed’s tools are used in the conduct of monetary policy, we must understand not only their effect on the money supply, but their direct effects on the federal funds rate as well. The chapter thus begins with a supply-and-demand analysis of the market for reserves to explain how the Fed’s settings for the three tools of monetary policy determine the federal funds rate. We then go on to look in more...
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...The Great Depression Thomas Clay Forrest Economics 510 Professor Don Waldron February 6, 2011, 2011 The Great Depression The Great Depression was the deepest, longest and most widespread economic calamity of the twentieth century, and is the most common standard of how far things in the world’s economy can decline. Beginning with the First New Deal, which put into effect a host of relief and recovery measures designed to improve economic conditions and stimulate recovery, myriad other steps were taken to prevent another catastrophe of this magnitude from ever occurring again. Are these measure enough, though, and could the world ever experience another Great Depression? How do the events of the Great Depression era compare to recent economic downturns, including the current deep recession the world is experiencing? This essay will provide answers to these questions and provide an analysis of the causes and events that led to the Great Depression. It will also present the reasons why another Great Depression is unlikely to occur again. Debates vary as to the causes of the Great Depression, with many well-respected economists offering differing opinions to what they believe led to the historic event. British economist John Maynard Keynes felt that the Depression was driven by demand, and in his book the General Theory of Employment Interest and Money, Keynes argued that lower aggregate expenditures in the economy contributed to an enormous...
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...The Great Recession and the Great Depression John Maynard Keynes wrote in the depths of the Great Depression that, “Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.”1 This acute observation is applicable to our current Great Recession as well. In fact, the newly discredited ideas are not too different from the old, suggesting that Keynes may have overestimated the ability of people to learn from their mistakes. I discuss the parallels between these two watersheds in recent economic history in three steps. The first and most important step is the causes of the crises and their relation to economic theory. The second step is the spread of the crises as they affected the whole world. I close with the final step, recovery—at least as far as we can see it at this point. Marx said famously that history repeats itself, “the first time as tragedy, the second as farce.”2 I argue that this observation also fits our current condition. Both of these dramatic and costly economic crises came from the interaction of economic imbalances in the world economy and the ruling ideology of financial decision makers who confronted these imbalances. The first imbalance came from the First World War. This paroxysm of violence brought the long economic expansion of the nineteenth century to a sudden end. Britain, the workshop of the prewar world, was exhausted by the struggle. America, the rising...
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...The Great Depression was a severe worldwide economic depression in the decade preceding World War II. The timing of the Great Depression varied across nations, but in most countries it started in 1930 and lasted until the late 1930s or middle 1940s. It was the longest, deepest, and most widespread depression of the 20th century. In the 21st century, the Great Depression is commonly used as an example of how far the world's economy can decline. Cities all around the world were hit hard, especially those dependent on heavy industry. Construction was virtually halted in many countries. Farming and rural areas suffered as crop prices fell by approximately 60%. Facing plummeting demand with few alternate sources of jobs, areas dependent on primary sector industries such as cash cropping, mining and logging suffered the most. Some economies started to recover by the mid-1930s. In many countries, the negative effects of the Great Depression lasted until after the end of World War II. Start Economic historians usually attribute the start of the Great Depression to the sudden devastating collapse of US stock market prices on October 29, 1929, known as Black Tuesday; some dispute this conclusion, and see the stock crash as a symptom, rather than a cause, of the Great Depression. Even after the Wall Street Crash of 1929, optimism persisted for some time; John D. Rockefeller said that "These are days when many are discouraged. In the 93 years of my life, depressions have come and...
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...TB_599810_Mishkin_TP.qxd:Layout 1 6/4/09 9:45 AM Page 1 Test Bank to accompany Richard G. Stahl University of Texas, Arlington Louisiana State University Pearson Addison-Wesley Boston San Francisco New York London Toronto Sydney Tokyo Singapore Madrid Mexico City Munich Paris Cape Town Hong Kong Montreal p an rot d ect is e fo d b T r i y hi ns U s w tr S c o uc o rk to py is rs rig ’u h se t l on aw ly s . Kathy Kelly TB_599810_Mishkin_TP.qxd:Layout 1 6/4/09 9:45 AM Page 2 This work is protected by United States copyright laws and is provided solely for the use of instructors in teaching their courses and assessing student learning. Dissemination or sale of any part of this work (including on the World Wide Web) will destroy the integrity of the work and is not permitted. The work and materials from it should never be made available to students except by instructors using the accompanying text in their classes. All recipients of this work are expected to abide by these restrictions and to honor the intended pedagogical purposes and the needs of other instructors who rely on these materials. Acquisitions Editor: Noel Kamm Seibert Project Manager: Kerri McQueen Production Editor: Alison Eusden Manufacturing Buyer: Carol Melville Copyright© 2010, 2007, 2004, 2001 Pearson Education, Inc., 75 Arlington Street, Boston, MA 02116. Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States...
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...system of credit. The Roman Empire had a highly developed banking system, and its bankers accepted deposits of money, made loans, and purchased mortgages History of International Banking Collapsing Roman Empire in AD 476 was a major set back and banking declined in Europe. Italians are the first to have organised international banking due to the increase of trade in the 13th‐ century. The moneychangers of the Italian states developed facilities for exchanging local and foreign currency. As trade is growing, merchants demanded other services, such as lending money, and gradually bank services were expanded. Banking in the modern sense of the word can be traced to medieval and early Renaissance Italy, to the rich cities in the north such as Florence, Venice and Genoa. First reported international banks were established in Genoa, Milan, Venice and Florence in 12th Century According to the Encarta encyclopaedia the first bank to offer most of the basic banking functions known today was the Bank of Barcelona in Spain. This was founded by merchants in 1401. This bank held deposits, exchanged currency, and carried out lending operations. It also is believed to have introduced the bank check. Three other early banks, each managed by a committee of city officials, were the Bank of Amsterdam (1609), the Bank of Venice (1587), and the Bank of Hamburg (1619). These institutions laid the foundation for modern banks of deposit and transaction. Since 1500: Portuguese role ‐ explorations...
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...1980–depository institutions deregulation & monetary control act DIDMCA, 6 year phase out of interest rate ceilings, permitted NOW accounts, FDIC coverage to $100000 1989 Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, & Reinforcement Act (FIRREA)–authorized taxpayer funds to cover cost of liquidating failed thrifts, abolished current thrift regulatory structure, moved thrift insurance to FDIC, required insurance fund= 1.25% of insured deposits ABCT–there is no market mechanism that causes inflation or business cycles, the inflation of prices is an effect not a cause of economic disruption ABCT & unsustainable boom–the fed MS to interest and employment (I), not been a change in time preferences, the in interest sends the wrong signal & investment projects start to compete with consumption for resources, may not be noticed (slack resources get used), eventually C & I will have to bid up resource costs, inflation dampens I, so Fed further MS, effects are only temporary Actual inflation-exceeds inflation expectations, real ex post returns on bonds can be negative AD can shift – AD, shift right. AD, shift left. Whenever C, I, G, net x / due to changes in the money supply AD curve holding constant moving down –quantity of money AD for output–derived from the demand for money or from the real balance effect AD slopes downward–when the price level is lowered our money balances grow in real terms leading us to buy more Addressing the business cycle–stop inflating...
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