...the Timing of Analyst Coverage Decisions and Recommendation Revisions: Evidence From the US Susan M. Young* Associate Professor Fordham University New York, NY 10019 syoung16@fordham.edu Emma Peng Assistant Professor Fordham University New York, NY 10019 ypeng@fordham.edu *Corresponding author We thank workshop participants at the AAA annual meeting, City University of New York, CUNY Baruch College Emory University, and the editor for their helpful comments. We are grateful for the data provided by an anonymous reviewer and research assistance of Aili Weng and Xiaolan Wang. We appreciate funding from Fordham University. Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2202393 An Analysis of Accounting Frauds and the Timing of Analyst Coverage Decisions and Recommendation Revisions: Evidence From the US Abstract: This paper provides a comprehensive exploration of the types of accounting fraud committed by firms over the period 1995 – 2009. Using detailed data from US SEC Accounting and Auditing Enforcement Releases (AAER), we examine the likelihood and timing of analyst coverage decisions and recommendation revisions related to fraud firms versus firms without accounting fraud. We find that analysts have a higher probability of taking the more severe action of dropping coverage rather than only revising down recommendations for firms with any type of accounting fraud and also for specific egregious types of accounting fraud. Through the use of competing...
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...differences and analyst forecast accuracy Ting Luo Department of Accounting, School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People’s Republic of China, and Analyst forecast accuracy 257 Wenjuan Xie Department of Accounting and Finance, Whittemore School of Business and Economics, University of New Hampshire, Durham, New Hampshire, USA Abstract Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of unidentifiable individual differences among financial analysts on the cross section of their earnings forecast accuracy. Design/methodology/approach – The paper employs the concept of analyst fixed effects to control for unidentifiable individual differences. Various psychological factors, such as decision style and personality traits, are documented to impact individuals’ decision making. However, analysts’ individual differences in such psychological factors are not captured by identifiable personal attributes employed in finance literature, such as years of experience. The methodology used addresses this issue and presents a more comprehensive study of analyst forecast accuracy. Findings – The paper documents that unidentifiable analyst-specific effects are significant, and that controlling for them improves model fitting and changes the explanatory power of some of the traditionally used independent variables in the literature. The paper confirms that the analyst’s firm-specific experience, the intensity of following that a firm receives, and the forecast horizon...
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...European Anaiysts' Earnings Forecasts Stan Beckers, Michael Steliarcs, and Alexander Thcmson Forecasting company cnrniu^s /s ( difficult and hazardous task. In nn 7 efficient market where annly^^ts learn from ptist mistakes, there should be no persistent and systematic biases in consensus earnings accuracy. J^rcvious research has already established how some (single) individualcompany characteristics si/stematically influence forecast accuracy. So far, however, the effect on consensus eariiings biases of a comptmy's sector and country affiliatioti combined with a range of other fundameutal chanieteristics has remained largely unexplored, ilsiiig data for 19932002, this article diseiitangles and quantifies for a broad universe of European stocks how the number of analysts following a stock, the dispersion of their forecasts, the volatility of earnings, the sector and country classification of the covered conipamj, ami its nuirket capitalization influence the accuracy of the consensus earnings forecast. 5 ecurity analysts are considered to be the premier experts in the assessment of a company's prospects. Their research efforts are largely directed at producing accurate earnings forecasts, which are a key input into equity valuation models. Although the importance of financial analysis is beyond dispute, its quality has become the subject of much scrutiny and debate. Academic research has a long history of documenting systematic earnings forecast errors, but analysts' conflicts...
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...minutes) 1. An analyst for a foreign branch of HB Investments, which is based in Lagos, has just issued a recommendation on an IPO. Unknown to the analyst, who is a CFA charterholder, members of her team manipulated the valuation model to increase the newly public company's stock price. She and all of the analysts on the team purchased shares of the oversubscribed IPO for their personal accounts and then purchased the remainder of the firm's allocation of shares for appropriate client accounts, a practice which is permitted by local securities laws. The analyst: A. did not violate the Standard I(A) Knowledge of the Law. B. violated Standard 1(A) Knowledge of the Law by purchasing the shares of the IPO but not by allowing the report to be published. C. violated Standard I(A) Knowledge of the Law both by allowing the report to be published and by purchasing the shares of the IPO. 2. Green Investments utilizes the CFA Institute Standards of Professional Conduct as their standards for ethical practice. For purposes of compliance, which of the following is least likely a violation of Green Investments' policies? A. One of Green Investments' marketing brochures states that several of the firm's portfolio managers passed all three levels of the CFA exam on their first attempts. B. At a meeting with potential clients, chief investment officer Bill Ray, CFA, states that he is among an "elite group of the most qualified investment professionals who have earned the right to use the CFA designation...
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...Analysts' Selective Coverage and Subsequent Performance of Newly Public Firms ABSTRACT This study examines the ability of analysts to forecast future firm performance, based on the selective coverage of newly public firms. We hypothesize that the decision to provide coverage contains information about an analyst’s underlying expectation of a firm’s future prospects. We extract this expectation by obtaining residual analyst coverage from a model of initial analyst following. We document that in the three subsequent years, IPOs with high residual coverage have significantly better returns and operating performance than those with low residual coverage. This evidence indicates analysts have superior predictive abilities and selectively provide coverage for firms about which their true expectations are favorable. ∗ Das and Guo are at the University of Illinois at Chicago, and Zhang is at the University of Hong Kong. We thank Eli Amir, Gilbert Bassett, Oleg Bondarenko, Konan Chan, Hsiu-lang Chen, Tim Kruse, Chao-Shin Liu, Malcolm McClelland, Roni Michaely, Tom Nohel, Ram Ramakrishnan, Cathy Schrand, Abbie Smith, Lenny Soffer, WeiLing Song, Robert Stambaugh (Editor), Steve Todd, Beverly Walther, Nan Zhou, an anonymous referee, and seminar participants at the City University of Hong Kong, Indiana University at Indianapolis, the London Business School, Nanyang Technological University, the Office of Economic Analysis at the U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Singapore...
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...Calculators, lemmings or frame-makers? The intermediary role of securities analysts Daniel Beunza and Raghu Garud Introduction As Wall Street specialists in valuation, sell-side securities analysts constitute a particularly important class of market actor.1 Analysts produce the reports, recommendations and price targets that professional investors utilize to inform their buy and sell decisions, which means that understanding analysts’ work can provide crucial insights on the determinants of value in the capital markets. Yet our knowledge of analysts is limited by insufficient attention to Knightian uncertainty. Analysts estimate the value of stocks by calculating their net present value or by folding the future back into the present. In so doing, they are faced with the fundamental challenge identified by Frank Knight, that is, with the difficulty of making decisions that entail a future that is unknown. These decisions, as Knight wrote, are characterized by ‘neither entire ignorance nor complete . . . information, but partial knowledge’ of the world (Knight, [1921] 1971: 199). The finance literature has not examined the Knightian challenge faced by analysts. Indeed, existing treatments circumvent the problem by adopting one of two extreme positions. In the first, put forward by orthodox economists, it is assumed that Knightian uncertainty is non-existent and that calculative decision-making is straightforward. Analysts are presented as mere calculators in a probabilistic world of risk...
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...sCAPITAL MANAGEMENT LEGG MASON March 16, 2006 Michael J. Mauboussin Common Errors in DCF Models Do You Use Economically Sound and Transparent Models? Discounted cash flow analysis is the most accurate and flexible method for valuing projects, divisions, and companies. Any analysis, however, is only as accurate as the forecasts it relies on. Errors in estimating the key ingredients of corporate value . . . can lead to mistakes in valuation. Tim Koller, Marc Goedhart, and David Wessels Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies 1 A Return to First Principles mmauboussin@lmfunds.com Say you had to come up with a fair offer to buy your local dry cleaner and the seller limited the extent of your financial information to the answers to five questions. Which questions would you ask? Chances are you wouldn’t ask how the quarter is progressing or about last year’s earnings, but you would focus on the prospects for cash coming in versus cash going out over time. Sole proprietors understand intimately that the value of their business hinges on the cash flow the business generates. No distributable cash, no value. Cash puts food on the table and pays the mortgage; earnings do not. Equity investors are business buyers. While most shareholders own only a small fraction of a company, they are owners nonetheless. The source of shareholder value, and value changes, is no different than the sole proprietor’s: it’s all about the cash. Most investors don’t think...
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...CONTENTS List of Figures 3 List of Tables 4 Executive Summary 5 Introduction 6 Statement of Opportunities and Problems 7 Methodology and Analysis 8 Summary and Conclusions 24 Recommendations 25 Works Cited 27 Appendix 28 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: NPC’s yield curve 10 Figure 2: Project evaluation 10 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Bond yield and cost of debt 9 Table 2: Sinking fund cash flow 11 Table 3: Own-bond-yiel-plus-risk-premium 12 Table 4: Cost of Equity, CAPM 14 Table 5: Cost of Equity, DCF 15 Table 6: Issuance of new common stock 18 Table 7: PNC’s WACC 18 Table 8: Capital budget 19 Table 9: Project evaluation 20 Table 10: Capital structure (weights) 21 Table 11: Capital structure (costs) 21 Table 12: Euro-denominated bonds 22 Executive Summary The cost of capital consists of three parts: cost of debt, preferred stock, and common equity. For bond evaluation we find the yield on the bonds and deduct the taxes, for preferred stock we consider the dividends and flotation costs and for cost of equity there are three different ways to estimate that is described in this report. For PNC the best is to use CAPM, because it considers market risk and that makes more informative to investors. To obtain the cost of weighted average cost of capital we multiply the cost of the above components with the desired weight. The heavier the weight is in certain component...
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...5…………………………………………………………………………….……………………..7 Appendix………………………………………………………………………………………………………8 Bibliography…………………………………………………………………………………………………10 Executive summary Laura Martin is a reputable equity analyst, who currently deals with the sell-side of equity analysis primarily in the cable industry. Equity analysts are divided into two categories, the buy-side and the sell-side and their main task is to compile financial information of companies along with market information and consult their clients about their investment options. Martin wanted to prove that the stock price of Cox was undervalued because the company was not operating in its full capacity. Martin called the 102 MHz of unused capacity the ‘stealth tier’ as the potential revenue streams from its usage were invisible but not valueless. In order to prove her point Martin used 3 methods: the EBITDA multiple analysis, Discounted Cash flow analysis, and real options Valuation analysis. The main assumptions used for all three methods are; that the revenue growth of the company would accelerate and diversify in the period 1998-2003, that the capital spending would also slow and the nature of investments would change, and that the digital revenue streams would yield higher returns on invested capital. With each analysis Martin tried to forecast the value of Cox stock in the year 2000 by making certain assumptions. With EBITDA multiple analysis and target price of $50, the market capitalization of Cox is increased which in turn increases the...
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...offered by a client to a portfolio manager, such as a free vacation or a cash bonus, to reward good performance in a future period is: A) a violation of the Standards. B) not a violation of the Standards as long as client confidentiality is maintained. C) a violation of the Standards unless the manager gets written consent from her employer. D) not a violation of the Standards as long as the manager informs her employer that she intends to accept the incentive. Question 2 Charmaine Townsend, CFA, has been managing a growth portfolio for her clients using a screening process that identifies companies that have high earnings growth rates. Townsend has decided that, because of a volatile economy, she is going to adopt a value strategy using a screening process that identifies companies that have low price-earnings multiples. Townsend will violate the Code and Standards if she makes this change in her investment process without: A) notifying her supervisor before she makes the change. B) getting written permission from her clients in advance of the change. C) promptly notifying her clients of the change. D) getting prompt written acknowledgment of the change from her clients within a reasonable time after the change was made. Question 3 Phoenix Investments has been in business for three years and is striving to be GIPS compliant. It has met all the requirements to achieve GIPS compliance and has begun the process of independent...
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...unconventional policy, the European sovereign crisis, and slower growth in emerging markets generally remain, but the acuteness of these issues appears for now to be less sharp. Our 2013 year-end target calls for low-to-mid single digit upside (Exhibit 1) predicated on our view that 2014 corporate earnings are likely to modestly recover from our 2013 forecasted level, perhaps with profits troughing during the April 2013 earnings season. Our year-end 2013 S&P500 price target is 1434, and our bull and bear targets are 1733 and 1135 (Exhibit 1). Our EPS outlook for 2014 is $110.21, up from our 2013 forecast of $98.71, both well below consensus. Improving Michigan Confidence and tightening corporate spreads drive the relative improvement in our earnings outlook. Please see our Interactive Model: S&P500: 2013 Year-End Forecast, also published today, to play with key assumptions and change assumptions for EPS, S&P price-to-earnings multiples and the year-end price target. 3 Themes - China, Yield and Mega Cap Quality: We recommend increasing China exposure, as China-centric US equities have lagged (Exhibit 22) and are cheap (Exhibit 24) vs. US-centric equities. Our Global Economics Team forecasts 1H 2013 China GDP growth will be improving, something not assumed in either the US or Europe. We...
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...information are identified. Last, accrual accounting is discussed including the strengths and limitation of accruals, and the implications of accruals for financial statement analysis. OUTLINE | | |Financial Reporting Environment | |Statutory Financial Reports | |Financial Statements | |Earnings Announcements | |Other Statutory Reports...
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...Analyst information intermediation – private and public information –and the central role of knowledge and social forces in economic processes in the ‘market for information’. John Holland, University of Glasgow, Jo Danbolt, University of Edinburgh, Lei Chen, University of Keele. John Holland, University of Glasgow, The Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, Main Building, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, Scotland Abstract: This paper develops a model of the information intermediation role of analysts in the ‘market for information’ (MFI). It illustrates how the same type of ‘soft’ intangibles information changes as it progresses through analyst information intermediation processes. The latter concern: company disclosure; analyst acquisition and analysis of company information; analyst reporting processes; and market impacts. The common information concerns ‘soft’ or qualitative information about the company intellectual capital (IC) or intangibles in the company business model. Banks and bank analysts are used as examples. Knowledge, social and economic factors in the wider ‘market for information’ (MFI) are shown to be major influences on ‘soft information’ and how it changes in analyst information intermediation processes. Negative knowledge and social factors play a role in weakening and eventually destabilising economic processes in analyst and the MFI. They were important factors in creating knowledge and information problems in analysts and the MFI, both ongoing...
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...Academy of Management Journal 2012, Vol. 55, No. 1, 213–233. http://dx.doi.org/10.5465/amj.2009.0530 OFFSETTING ILLEGITIMACY? HOW PRESSURES FROM SECURITIES ANALYSTS INFLUENCE INCUMBENTS IN THE FACE OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES MARY J. BENNER University of Minnesota RAM RANGANATHAN University of Pennsylvania We study how analysts’ recommendations affect firms’ strategies during radical technological shifts. We find, from our study of firms in three industries undergoing technological change, that analysts’ recommendations trigger changes in strategic investments during periods of uncertain technological change. We also find that firms that make high investments despite negative analysts’ recommendations announce a higher value of share repurchases, an action that may offset the growing illegitimacy of these increased investments by signaling alignment with shareholders’ interests. Radical technological changes provide a source of exogenous variation that contributes to explanation of how firms balance technological pressures for adaptation and institutional pressures for legitimacy. The challenges and opportunities for firms faced with technological changes in their environments have been documented in a large body of organization and strategy research (e.g., Agarwal & Helfat, 2009; Christensen & Bower, 1996; Cooper & Smith, 1992; Henderson & Clark, 1990; Tushman & Anderson, 1986). Prior research has explored the difficulties firms face developing the new knowledge and capabilities required...
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...BooK 1 ETHICAL AND PROFESSIONAL STANDARD S, QuANTITATIVE METHODS, AND EcoNOMics - Readings and Learning Outcome Statements .......................................................... 6 Study Session 1 - Ethical and Professional Standards ............................................ 13 Study Session 2 - Ethical and Professional Standards: Application Self-Test - Ethical and Professional Standards ....................... 110 128 138 256 262 339 344 349 358 ..................................................... Study Session 3 - Quantitative Methods for Valuation Self-Test - Quantitative Methods for Valuation Study Session 4 - Economics for Valuation Self-Test - Economics for Valuation Formulas ........................................ ................................................... ......................................................... .................................................................... ............................................................................................................ Appendices Index ........................................................................................................ ................................................................................................................. SCHWESERNOTES™ 2013 CFA LEVEL II BOOK 1: ETHICAL AND PROFESSIONAL STANDARDS, QUANTITATIVE METHODS, AND ECONOMICS ©20 12 Kaplan, Inc. All rights reserved. Published in 20 12 by...
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