...Economic Forecasting Paper By ECO/ 372 November 18, 2013 Learning Team Reflection Week Two List of resources to gather historical economic data and economic forecast data Some of the resources, which are useful to gather historical data as well as forecasting the new data include Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce and FRED, Economic Time-Series Database, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau, Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Office of Management and budget (OBM), Federal Reserve Releases (FRB), NBER'S Macro-Historical Database, New York's Fed's statistics and data, Statistical abstract of the United States and CIA world fact book. How and why each source is valuable and useful FRED database; allows citizens to see how the country's financial state is. The data includes the national economic and financial date “including interest rates, consumer price indexes, employment and population and trade data. The Bureau of Economic Analysis; includes estimates concerning national, international, and regional economic activity. It also provides statistics decision influenced by the government officials, business people, households and individuals.” (History matters. 2013. Para 3, 5). The Bureau of Labor Statistics gives specific information about employment, unemployment, consumer price index, and producer price index. The Bureau of Labor Statistics updates the...
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...LAB’S MODULE: FORECASTING In this exercise, you will learn how to create forecasts for a product group through SAP. SAP provides a complete set of forecasting tools that can be used in a number of sales and operations areas. The most flexible set of forecasting tools are provided in the Sales and Operations Planning (SOP) transaction. The flow of the forecasting flowchart can be seen below: [pic] 1: Create Product Group |Purpose of Exercise | |To assist with Sales Order Planning you firstly need to create a Product Group. Product groups (product families) support high-level | |planning. A product group combines other product groups and materials. | |Menu Path |Logistics ( Production ( SOP ( Product Group ( Create | |Trans Code | | The Create Product Group: Initial Screen appears. 1. Type KidBikeGrp### in the Product group field. 2. Type ### Sport & Fun Kid Bike Prod Grp in the Description field. 3. Type DL00 (Plant Dallas) in the Plant field. 4. Type ST (items) in the Base Unit field. 5. Check that Materials radio button has been selected. ...
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... |Syllabus | | |School of Business | | |QRB/501 Version 3 | | |Quantitative Reasoning for Business | Copyright © 2011, 2010, 2008 by University of Phoenix. All rights reserved. Course Description This course applies quantitative reasoning skills to business problems. Students learn to analyze data using a variety of analytical tools and techniques. Other topics include formulas, visual representation of quantities, time value of money, and measures of uncertainty. Policies Faculty and students/learners will be held responsible for understanding and adhering to all policies contained within the following two documents: • University policies: You must be logged into the student website to view this document. • Instructor policies: This document is posted in the Course Materials forum. University policies are subject to change. Be sure to read the policies at the beginning of each class. Policies may be slightly different depending on the modality in which you attend class. If you have recently changed modalities...
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... and yet they are developed almost entirely from the same set of cases and from similar data sets. How is this possible? Kreuzer tackles this issue, determining whether one of Boix or CIS is more correct, or if the differing theories are a result of institutional endogeneity — loosely, whether the causal direction of the theories is correct. He proposes that by working closely with the historical record and with the work of historians — that is, incorporating qualitative data in with the quantitative data — political scientists will be able to produce more thorough, accurate, and robust conclusions. Kreuzer supports this by referring to Falleti and Lynch, who asserted that historical analysis can help in “determining the equivalence of cases across time”, as well as by emphasising the cross-referencing and fact-checking involved in historical work. Kreuzer attempts this through the replication of CIS’s and Boix’s data with the in-depth historical contextualisation to test the validity of their data and conclusions. In Kreuzer’s analysis of CIS’s original text on electoral systems, he locates multiple areas of inconsistencies. His primary criticism of the data, when placed in the greater historical context, is that the citations CIS use to back up their data are possibly invalid. CIS cites the same source for the categories of guilds and union data, and when specifically coding the data in one way or another, provide no reasoning for the decisions made about the borderline cases;...
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...happen in the future. Nevertheless, it is not easy to convert a feeling about the future into a precise and useful number, such as next year's sales volume or the raw material cost per unit of output. Forecasting methods can help estimate many such future aspects of a business operation. All forecasting methods can be divided into two broad categories: qualitative and quantitative. Many forecasting techniques use past or historical data in the form of time series. A time series is simply a set of observations measured at successive points in time or over successive periods of time. Forecasts essentially provide future values of the time series on a specific variable such as sales volume. Division of forecasting methods into qualitative and quantitative categories is based on the availability of historical time series data (Ulrich, et al, 2004). Qualitative forecasting techniques generally employ the judgment of experts in the appropriate field to generate forecasts. A key advantage of these procedures is that they can be applied in situations where historical data are simply not available. Moreover, even when...
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...Chapter 3 Methodology Historical Research Design purpose is to collect, verify, synthesize evidence to establish facts that defend or refute your hypothesis. It uses primary sources, secondary sources, and lots of qualitative data sources such as logs, diaries, official records, reports, etc. The limitation is that the sources must be both authentic and valid. When we think of research, we often think of a laboratory or classroom where two or more groups receive different treatments or alternative training methods. We would then determine if the treatment or training had an impact on some outcome measure. This type of research is the best at predicting cause and effect relationships and is often cited as the most rigorous and standardized form. While the experiments described above have a definite place in the research arena, sometimes we gain the best knowledge by looking into the past rather than into the future. Historical research attempts to do just that. Through a detailed analysis of historical data, we can determine, perhaps to a lesser extent, cause and effect relationships. We can also help prevent the present day teachers, managers, and other users of research from making the same mistakes that were made in the past. Historical research can also mean gathering data from situations that have already occurred and performing statistical analysis on this data just as we would in a traditional experiment. The one key difference between this type of research and...
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... Evelien de Wilt 2014/2015 Academic and study skills semester 1, period 2 Historical cost accounting v market value accounting. Jamie Short 10703330 In a report written by GAAP (2012, pp.101-121), Assets and liabilities have been recorded through historical cost accounting: a system where assets and liabilities are recorded and presented in the monetary amount paid or the consideration given at the time of their acquisition. But it possesses some vigorous imperfections in the context of the contemporary business environment which have made accounting bodies, especially The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) is a private, not-for-profit organization whose primary purpose is to establish and improve generally accepted accounting principles within the United States in the public's interest.) and the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) is the independent, accounting standard-setting body of the IFRS Foundation. (1986, pp.152-154), to probe for a number of alternative accounting methods. One of these alternatives is market value accounting that has been considered as the best alternative to the historical cost accounting. The business estimation of an asset is the sum at which that asset could be purchased or sold in a current exchange between ready gatherings. This paper will subsequently inspect the contrasts between these two methods for valuation. Historical cost accounting for a long time has been liable to numerous negative reactions, particularly...
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...estimated costs for labor and materials, combined with allowances for indirect costs such as inventory costs and overhead. WBS: There are a few different types of WBS which are described in the textbook (Chapter 5), and these include deliverable based, function based, and phase or process based. The selection of the type is based on the project and project manager preference. The accumulation of historical data regarding costs is a primary determinant of estimating accuracy. to develop a meaningful database for use in historical cost estimating: Develop a System for Gathering Data Costs common across projects in the company should be identified, and requirements for comparative data established. Regardless of the method used to accumulate historical data, a prime concern is that all costs are captured in the database. There are a number of ways to relate historical costs to new project estimates: By Actual Cost; By Pro-rating; By Pooling Costs. Choosing the Method for Accumulating Historical Costs The majority of firms use a combination of methods to record historical costs for estimating purposes. • Direct costs are usually recorded at actual cost and can therefore be closely correlated to output. • Indirect costs are usually allocated as a percentage of direct costs based on total volume. Indirect costs are generally expressed using a...
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...Individual Week Two Practice Problems Resources: MyMathLab® Complete the Week Two Practice Problems in MyMathLab®. 04/25/2013 4 Individual Week Two Quiz Resources: MyMathLab® Complete the Week Two Quiz in MyMathLab®. 04/26/2013 3 Learning Team Inventory Systems Summary The purpose of this assignment is to prepare for subsequent assignments in this course. Research one inventory system per team member used in an organization with which you are familiar. (e.g. perpetual, periodic, FIFO, LIFO) Collect four years of inventory data from each organization. If you are not abel to find data, you may also use the University of Phoenix Material: Summer Historical Inventory Data or University of Phoenix Material: Winter Historical Inventory Data. Collaborate as a team to compare the inventory systems. Write a summary which includes: • 250- to 350-word description of each inventory system. • 350- to 700-word comparison describing the advantages and disadvantages of each system. Format your summary consistent with APA guidelines. 04/23/2013 5 Week Three: Visual Representation of Quantities Details Due Points Objectives 3.1 Construct histograms and bivariate plots. 3.2 Determine the value of a slope by using the slope-intercept formula. 3.3 Conduct a linear regression analysis. 04/30/2013 N/A Readings Read Ch. 6 & 9 of Quantitative Reasoning for Business. Read Topics 2–3 & 5 of Quantitative Reasoning. 04/30/2013 N/A In-Class Exercises 1. In-Class Team Exercise ...
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...Summarise the criticisms of VAR as a risk management tool. VAR is one of the simple and widely used risk measures that attempt to summarise the total risk of the portfolio. Despite of its popularity within Financial Intuitions, Treasures and Fund Managers, there are frequent criticisms against its use which we will discuss in this part. One of the criticisms is that VAR focuses on the risks around the middle area of the distribution and completely ignores the tail portion which is associated with large losses. (Glasserman, Heidelberger & Shahabuddin, 2002, P239). So, the probability of the portfolio losing side has not been evaluated enough. For example, the interpretation of VAR number $904,617 calculated previously for the bank’s portfolio is that there is a 99% probability that the maximum loss will not exceed $904,617. This may not be the case if the 1% loss is of significant amount and of unpredictable nature. Measuring rare events such as Bank Robberies and Natural disasters are almost impossible. The use of historical data in such context is not sufficient enough predict the future which can lead to excessive risk taking or not hedging property. It may turn out to be like an airbag in a car that works all other times but the time of an accident. Another criticism is regarding the Subadditivety. The sum of VAR of two portfolios is actually larger than the sum of 2 VARs. The end result should be either equal or lesser than the sum because diversification actually...
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...) (1) 1 Survey evidence and much of the discussion is adapted from T. Brotherson, K. Eades, R. Harris, and R. Higgins, “‘Best Practices’ in Estimating the Cost of Capital: An Update,” Journal of Applied Finance 23, no. 1 (2013), which is an update of an earlier article: R. Bruner, K. Eades, R. Harris, and R. Higgins, “‘Best Practices’ in Estimating the Cost of Capital: Survey and Synthesis,” Financial Practice and Education (Spring/Summer 1998). The 2013 study reports these results plus others on the weighted average cost of capital. The study chose leading firms using Fortune’s list of Most Admired Companies. Firms were selected based a survey of 698 companies that ranked other companies on a number of criteria including wise use of corporate assets. “Activity” for...
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...QRB/501 – Quantitative Reasoning for Business University of Phoenix Inventory Proposal This proposal is for a solution for an inventory problem within an organization. The details of the organization’s business operations are established and the problem identified so a potential solution may be formulated and proposed. The expected benefits to the organization are also examined as the motivation for implementation. Additionally, an inventory index is used to compare and contrast historical trends leading to the inventory problem and supporting evidence is presented through a histogram and slope-intercept calculations. Organization Vertical Entertainment (VE) is a fireworks wholesaler headquartered in Austin, Texas. VE has been in business since 2005 and provides fireworks products through business-to-business and business-to-consumer channels. The organization’s key segments are the small-box retailers and fireworks display companies. The small-box retailers account for increased volume during the summer months (e.g. 4th of July) whereas the fireworks display companies purchase goods year-round. In recent years VE has expanded to direct sales via the company website. Inventory Problem VE purchases all firework inventories directly from China and they arrive in roughly 12 weeks. Product backorder usually result in lost sales because most events are time specific. The main inventory issue...
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... |Course Syllabus | | |School of Business | | |QRB/501 Version 2 | | |Quantitative Reasoning for Business | Copyright © 2010, 2008 by University of Phoenix. All rights reserved. Course Description This course applies quantitative reasoning skills to business problems. Students learn to analyze data using a variety of analytical tools and techniques. Other topics include formulas, visual representation of quantities, time value of money, and measures of uncertainty. Policies Faculty and students/learners will be held responsible for understanding and adhering to all policies contained within the following two documents: • University policies: You must be logged into the student website to view this document. • Instructor policies: This document is posted in the Course Materials forum. University policies are subject to change. Be sure to read the policies at the beginning of each class. Policies may be slightly different depending on the modality in which you attend class. If you have recently changed modalities...
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...and implementing Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS). With the increase in attacks by hackers most organizations use vulnerability, threat, and exploit assessment to help keep their systems protected. A risk exist when threats are able to exploit vulnerabilities. It is understood there will always be a risk and threat. The technology used to infiltrate systems today has advanced significate over the years. I believe companies do not invest enough money in testing their systems regularly. In this paper I will talk about two (2) risk assessment methodologies and the key approaches to identifying threats relevant to an organization. I will also discuss the different types of assets that need protection. Lastly, I will explain the relationship between access and risk, and identify the tradeoffs of restricting access to the organization’s assets. Assets and risk management are essential components to a successful organization. Risk Assessment A risk assessment can save you time and resources if you follow the procedures, and utilize the resources available to conduct your assessment. The two preferred methods used to identify threats are reviewing historical data and threat modeling. The technique used often depends on the environment and resources available. Some companies can afford to use both methods. The historical method is the most cost efficient. Historical Data. This method is the easier and most often used unlike threat modeling, which can be complicated and difficult...
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...Forecasting can be broadly considered as a method or a technique for estimating many future aspects of a business or other operation. There are numerous techniques that can be used to accomplish the goal of forecasting. For example, a retailing firm that has been in business for 25 years can forecast its volume of sales in the coming year based on its experience over the 25-year period—such a forecasting technique bases the future forecast on the past data. While the term "forecasting" may appear to be rather technical, planning for the future is a critical aspect of managing any organization—business, nonprofit, or other. In fact, the long-term success of any organization is closely tied to how well the management of the organization is able to foresee its future and to develop appropriate strategies to deal with likely future scenarios. Intuition, good judgment, and an awareness of how well the economy is doing may give the manager of a business firm a rough idea (or "feeling") of what is likely to happen in the future. Nevertheless, it is not easy to convert a feeling about the future into a precise and useful number, such as next year's sales volume or the raw material cost per unit of output. Forecasting methods can help estimate many such future aspects of a business operation. Suppose that a forecast expert has been asked to provide estimates of the sales volume for a particular product for the next four quarters. One can easily see that a number of other decisions will...
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