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Ust Inc Business Risks

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What are the primary business risks associated with UST inc.? What are the attributes of UST Inc.? Evaluate from the viewpoint of a bondholder.
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UST Inc. is a long standing market leader in producing moist smokeless tobacco products. They were a key innovator in the market and have a long standing trusted and recognised brand name. They are known for their conservative debt policy and high dividend payouts.
UST has maintained an A-1 credit rating, the highest rating for commercial papers.
They have been name as one of the most profitable companies, beating out icons such as Coca-cola and Microsoft. This is due to their premium products, strong brand name, historical pricing flexibility, the continued growth of moist smokeless tobacco market and the high barriers of entry for competitors.

In 1998, the financial performance of the company is quite profitable. Comparing against the tobacco industry, UST’s gross profit margin, average return on assets, and return of equity are well above the industry medians. looking at their debt capitalization of around 17% compared to the industry median of 65.7%. They have achieved high return rates with low financial leverage,

Over the last ten years, their net sales and gross profit have been at a steady growth due to their premium pricing strategy. They’ve taken an aggressive stance by introducing price increases annually or even bi-annually. But they are getting those results with increasing sales and revenues, which means they’re generating generally positive and stable cash flows.

This pricing strategy does come as a double edged sword. Whilst UST are still a dominant player in this industry, there has been a decline in their market share, with a forecasted 7-year CAGR of -1.6%. This is due to their failure to respond rapidly enough to price-value competitors.

Responding to this, the Red Seal Label was introduced to compete with price-value brands to preserve the pricing power of their premium products. However, they were too slow in responding to the threats as they tried to enter a 9% market share of value competitors. The Red Seal label was only able to gain 0.6% market share in this category. In 1997, there was conflict with the management board, with the resignation of two key executives. As a bondholder, I would be concerned about the management and strategic direction of the company.

UST have little opportunity to expand internationally and they are lacking in their non-core operations. Their primary sales comes from tobacco, which could be at risk due to industry and legal problems.

Overall the tobacco industry faces many litigation and legislation issues every day. At the end of 1998, UST was facing seven pending health related lawsuits, with the outcomes of these lawsuits uncertain. UST has signed on agreeing to the bans on marketing and advertising their products to youths.

There has been a cultural shift towards moist smokeless tobacco because it is seen as less of a health risk compared to cigarettes. There is also less conclusive scientific evidence linking smokeless tobacco to cancer, but there are risks of future research that could jeopardize the industry. And in general there is a negative public and political sentiment.
These do present inherent business risks that the industry will always face, which does raise concerns about uncertainty for the future.

Whilst UST does have a strong financial standing, there are few uncertainties regarding their market share, legal issues and the tobacco industry as a whole, which could impact the company in the medium to long term.

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