...Equity Research June 16, 2016 BSE Sensex: 26726 INDIA Aviation Flying high amid good times Reason for Report: Sector thematic and initiating coverage InterGlobe Aviation (Rs1,011 – BUY) Target price Rs1,268 SpiceJet (Rs66 – HOLD) Target price Rs64 Jet Airways (Rs561 – ADD) Target price Rs621 Research Analysts: Ansuman Deb ansuman.deb@icicisecurities.com +91 22 6637 7312 India’s aviation sector is set to undergo a strong growth period, which should benefit all the incumbent players, particularly on a benign crude price outlook. Our supply-demand model for domestic air traffic implies 14% growth in passengers as evidenced from firm aircraft orders and latest delivery schedules. With yield management becoming the singular strategy lever for Indian Low-Cost Carriers (LCCs), cost structures assume high importance and structural asymmetries will decide the competitive edge for the airlines. However, much of these asymmetries in cost structure are inherited from the fleet strategy adopted by various airlines, hence normally have a long-lasting impact on their balance sheets. High operating leverage proves fatal in a cyclical downturn where balance sheet strength is vital. At the comfort of hindsight, bulk orders have benefitted IndiGo with valuable incentives, which have given it the structural advantage of lower rentals, while single fleet focus and strong balance sheet have lent IndiGo asymmetrical advantages on maintenance costs, redelivery expenses and supplementary rentals...
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