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Walmart and the Usa Economy

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Wal-Mart and the U.S. Economy

Dr. Robert Jantzen

Professor of Economics

Iona College

Dr. Donn Pescatrice

Professor of Economics

Iona College

Dr. Andrew Braunstein

Professor of Business Economics
Hagan School of Business

Iona College

Corresponding Author:

Dr. Donn Pescatrice
Iona College
Department of Economics
715 North Avenue
New Rochelle, NY 10801
(914)-637-2729
(dpescatrice@iona.edu)

March, 2008

Wal-Mart and the U.S. Economy

ABSTRACT

The Wal-Mart company, the world’s largest retailer and second-largest corporation, is a dominant U.S. business. This study investigates whether there are significant long-run relationships between the business of Wal-Mart and the overall U.S. economy as measured by an array of traditional macro-level variables. Cointegration analysis reveals that Wal-Mart sales generally move counter to overall economic conditions, dampened in more prosperous economic periods and buoyed in more sluggish economic environments. Consequently, trends in Wal-Mart sales may serve as a rather non-traditional contrarian economic bellwether.

Keywords Wal-Mart . macroeconomy . cointegration . bellwether

JEL Classifications E32 . L81 . M21

WAL-MART AND THE U.S. ECONOMY

Introduction

The Wal-Mart corporation has come under media scrutiny for a myriad of reasons in recent years. It continues to be the focus of countless news stories, case studies, and organizational analyses—some lauding its business acumen, others decrying its negative social, environmental, and economic impacts. The company’s expansion plans are increasingly subject to referendums as local governments question whether a Wal-Mart presence produces net economic and employment gains. In recent years, residents have turned back

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