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An Accounting Method of Business

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Journal of Accounting and Economics 39 (2005) 509–533 www.elsevier.com/locate/jae

To blame or not to blame: Analysts’ reactions to external explanations for poor financial performance$
Jan Barton, Molly MercerÃ
Goizueta Business School, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA Received 3 March 2003; received in revised form 17 March 2005; accepted 4 April 2005

Abstract Managers often provide self-serving disclosures that blame poor financial performance on temporary external factors. Results of an experiment conducted with 124 financial analysts suggest that when analysts perceive such disclosures as plausible, they provide higher earnings forecasts and stock valuations than if the explanation had not been provided. However, we also show that these disclosures can backfire if analysts find them implausible. Specifically, implausible explanations that blame poor performance on temporary external factors lead

We appreciate the helpful comments of Holly Ashbaugh, Charlie Bailey, Sudipta Basu, Robert Bloomfield (the referee), Jennifer Joe, Jay Koehler, Mark Kohlbeck, Lisa Koonce, Bob Lipe, Stan Markov, Ella Mae Matsumura, Brian Mayhew, Jeff Miller, Pam Murphy, Lisa Sedor, Siew Hong Teoh, Kristy Towry, Terry Warfield, Greg Waymire, Jerry Zimmerman (the editor), and seminar participants at University of Georgia, Harvard University, University of Notre Dame, Ohio State University, Rice University, University of Wisconsin—Madison, the 2003 AAA Financial Accounting and Reporting Section midyear meeting, and the 2004 AAA annual meeting. We also gratefully acknowledge those who gave generously of their time participating in this study and the Goizueta Business School for its financial support. ÃCorresponding author. Tel.: +1 404 727 7079; fax: +1 404 727 6313. E-mail addresses: jan_barton@bus.emory.edu (J. Barton), molly_mercer@bus.emory.edu (M. Mercer).

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