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Arable Crop Production

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SCHOOL OF VOCATIONAL AND TECHNICAL EDUCATION

FEDERAL COLLEGE OF EDUCATION (SPECIAL), OYO

AN ASSIGNMENT SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL EDUCATION

COURSE CODE: AGE 121

COURSE TITLE: ARABLE CROP PRODUCTION

QUESTION: DISCUSS THE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE ON

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

BY

ABDUL-RASHEED MUHAMM

DEPARTMENT: SHI/AGE

DR. S. O. AGBATO

AND

MRS. SALAMI

LECTURER IN CHARGE

Climate change induced by increasing greenhouse gases is likely to affect crops differently from region to region. For example, average crop yield is expected to drop down to 50% in Pakistan according to the UKMO scenario whereas corn production in Europe is expected to grow up to 25% in optimum hydrologic conditions. More favourable effects on yield tend to depend to a large extent on realization of the potentially beneficial effects of carbon dioxide on crop growth and increase of efficiency in water use. Decrease in potential yields is likely to be caused by shortening of the growing period, decrease in water availability and poor vernalization. The overall effect of climate change on agriculture will depend on the balance of these effects. Assessment of the effects of global climate changes on agriculture might help to properly anticipate and adapt farming to maximize agricultural production. At the same time, agriculture has been shown to produce significant effects on climate change, primarily through the production and release of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, but also by altering the Earth's land cover, which can change its ability to absorb or reflect heat and light, thus contributing to radiative forcing. Land use change such as deforestation and desertification, together with use of fossil fuels, are the major anthropogenic sources of carbon dioxide; agriculture itself is the major contributor to increasing methane and nitrous oxide concentrations in Earth's atmosphere. Impact of climate change on agriculture Despite technological advances, such as improved varieties, genetically modified organisms, and irrigation systems, weather is still a key factor in agricultural productivity, as well as soil properties and natural communities. The effect of climate on agriculture is related to variabilities in local climates rather than in global climate patterns. The Earth's average surface temperature has increased by 1.5°F {0.83°C} since 1880. Consequently, agronomists consider any assessment has to be individually consider each local area. On the other hand, agricultural trade has grown in recent years, and now provides significant amounts of food, on a national level to major importing countries, as well as comfortable income to exporting ones. The international aspect of trade and security in terms of food implies the need to also consider the effects of climate change on a global scale. A study published in Science suggests that, due to climate change, "southern Africa could lose more than 30% of its main crop, maize, by 2030. In South Asia losses of many regional staples, such as rice, millet and maize could top 10%". The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has produced several reports that have assessed the scientific literature on climate change. The IPCC Third Assessment Report, published in 2001, concluded that the poorest countries would be hardest hit, with reductions in crop yields in most tropical and sub-tropical regions due to decreased water availability, and new or changed insect pest incidence. In Africa and Latin America many rainfed crops are near their maximum temperature tolerance, so that yields are likely to fall sharply for even small climate changes; falls in agricultural productivity of up to 30% over the 21st century are projected. Marine life and the fishing industry will also be severely affected in some places. In the long run, the climatic change could affect agriculture in several ways: • productivity, in terms of quantity and quality of crops • agricultural practices, through changes of water use (irrigation) and agricultural inputs such as herbicides, insecticides and fertilizers • environmental effects, in particular in relation of frequency and intensity of soil drainage (leading to nitrogen leaching), soil erosion, reduction of crop diversity • rural space, through the loss and gain of cultivated lands, land speculation, land renunciation, and hydraulic amenities. • adaptation, organisms may become more or less competitive, as well as humans may develop urgency to develop more competitive organisms, such as flood resistant or salt resistant varieties of rice. They are large uncertainties to uncover, particularly because there is lack of information on many specific local regions, and include the uncertainties on magnitude of climate change, the effects of technological changes on productivity, global food demands, and the numerous possibilities of adaptation. Most agronomists believe that agricultural production will be mostly affected by the severity and pace of climate change, not so much by gradual trends in climate. If change is gradual, there may be enough time for biota adjustment. Rapid climate change, however, could harm agriculture in many countries, especially those that are already suffering from rather poor soil and climate conditions, because there is less time for optimum natural selection and adaption.

Observed impacts

So far, the effects of regional climate change on agriculture have been relatively limited. Changes in crop phenology provide important evidence of the response to recent regional climate change. Phenology is the study of natural phenomena that recur periodically, and how these phenomena relate to climate and seasonal changes. A significant advance in phenology has been observed for agriculture and forestry in large parts of the Northern Hemisphere.

Projections

As part of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report, Schneider et al. (2007) projected the potential future effects of climate change on agriculture. With low to medium confidence, they concluded that for about a 1 to 3 °C global mean temperature increase (by 2100, relative to the 1990–2000 average level) there would be productivity decreases for some cereals in low latitudes, and productivity increases in high latitudes. In the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, "low confidence" means that a particular finding has about a 2 out of 10 chance of being correct, based on expert judgement. "Medium confidence" has about a 5 out of 10 chance of being correct. Over the same time period, with medium confidence, global production potential was projected to: • increase up to around 3 °C, • very likely decrease above about 3 °C. Most of the studies on global agriculture assessed by Schneider et al. (2007) had not incorporated a number of critical factors, including changes in extreme events, or the spread of pests and diseases. Studies had also not considered the development of specific practices or technologies to aid

References

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios retrieved 26 June 2007 Fraser, E. 2008. “Crop yield and climate change”, Retrieved on 14 September 2009. UN Report on Climate Change retrieved 25 June 2007 Archived June 21, 2007 at the Wayback Machine "Climate 'could devastate crops'". BBC News. 31 January 2008. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7220807.stm. Lobell DB, Burke MB, Tebaldi C, Mastrandrea MD, Falcon WP, Naylor RL (2008). "Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030". Science 319 (5863): 607–10. doi:10.1126/science.1152339. PMID 18239122. Rosenzweig, C (2007). "Executive summary". In ML Parry, et al, (eds.). Chapter 1: Assessment of Observed Changes and Responses in Natural and Managed Systems. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press (CUP): Cambridge, UK: Print version: CUP. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 0-521-88010-6. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch1s1-es.html. Retrieved 2011-06-25. Rosenzweig, C (2007). "1.3.6.1 Crops and livestock". In ML Parry, et al, (eds.). Chapter 1: Assessment of Observed Changes and Responses in Natural and Managed Systems. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press (CUP): Cambridge, UK: Print version: CUP. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 0-521-88010-6. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch1s1-3-6-1.html. Retrieved 2011-06-25.

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