...Earnings Management in a Dynamic Setting and Public Disclosure in the Financial Services Industry A Dissertation Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Yale University in Candidacy for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy by Kai Du Dissertation Director: Shyam Sunder December 2012 c 2012 by Kai Du All rights reserved. Abstract Essays in Accounting Theory: Corporate Earnings Management in a Dynamic Setting and Public Disclosure in the Financial Services Industry Kai Du 2012 This dissertation consists of three essays on the interactions between economic fundamentals and accounting information in three different settings: an infinite-horizon financial reporting problem, a coordination game with trading in the secondary market, and a bank which provides risk sharing among demand depositors. In the first essay, I propose a dynamic model of corporate earnings management in which investors have different expectations schemes. I find that while earnings management may exist when investors have rational expectations or misspecified Bayesian beliefs, it disappears in the long run of an adaptive learning process. The model also offers ample predictions on the time-series properties of asset prices and return predictabilities. The second essay studies the role of public disclosure by a distressed firm whose creditors engage in a coordination game with trading. I find that conditioned on the private information environment and equilibrium selection...
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...actual loss will be larger No clear guidelines as to the choice of sample length m: small m means that the VaR will be more influenced by recent events; large m is needed for precise estimates - No way to extrapolate the 1-day VaR to a longer n-day horizon (except if nonoverlapping n-period returns are considered to re-calculate the n-day VaR) A risk-averse investor: - Accepts risk-free or speculative prospects with positive risk-premiums - Rejects portfolios that are fair games (or worse) The higher the indifference curve, the higher the utility levelT he steeper the indifference curve, the higher the risk aversion -> higher compensation required for the same level of risk Two major sources of uncertainty for the risky assets in a portfolio: 1. Market risk -? Systematic, non-diversifiable 2. Firm-specific risk -> Non-systematic, diversifiable The minimum-variance frontier, which gives the lowest variance that can be attained for any target level of expected portfolio return The separation property The portfolio choice problem may be separated into two independent tasks -Determination of the optimal risky portfolio: it does not depend on agent’s preferences, and is thus the same for all investors -Allocation of the complete portfolio to Tbills versus the risky portfolio: it depends on personal preferences (risk aversion) -The R-square of the regression: the portion of the variation in IBM excess returns that is explained by the variation in the...
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...STABILISATION CLAUSES The feautures inherent in an oil and gas contracts Investment contracts present Contractual risk exist, the uncertain nature of the petroleum exploration and production implies there is inherent possibility and probability of non performance. These feutures include; the long term charcter of activities, high risk of operations and the capital intensity required.[1] proven quality or quantity of reserves, new technological requirements, economic and political risks, price volatility e.t.c. Stabilisation clauses are measures designed to protect investors in long term and capital intensiv3e agreements against political risk. Addressing these uncertainties through the set agreed terms and appropriate internal Revision and Adaptation System (IRAS) is cardinal. [2] The main purpose of a stabilisation clause is that it restricts the powers of the state as sovereign. Therefore, it seeks to restrict the exercise of the States legislative and administrative powers and prevents modification of the contract conditions by reinforcing the principle of sanctity of contracts which protects the contractor against actions of the State.[3]Traditional staibilisation caluses seek to addess probable risks, by freeezinf or neatrulisth the states regulatory powers and capacity to unilaterally change the regime and terms relied upon the Contractor in the Agreement. [4] The rational for state involvement, includes assertion of sovereignty, policy control, technology...
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...CAPITAL ASSET PRICES WITH AND WITHOUT NEGATIVE HOLDINGS Nobel Lecture, December 7, 1990 by W ILLIAM F. S H A R P E Stanford University Graduate School of Business, Stanford, California, USA INTRODUCTION* Following tradition, I deal here with the Capital Asset Pricing Model, a subject with which I have been associated for over 25 years, and which the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has cited in honoring me with the award of the Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. I first present the Capital Asset Pricing Model (hence, CAPM), incorpo1 rating not only my own contributions but also the outstanding work of Lintner (1965, 1969) and the contributions of Mossin (1966) and others. My goal is to do so succinctly yet in a manner designed to emphasize the economic content of the theory. Following this, I modify the model to reflect an extreme case of an institutional arrangement that can preclude investors from choosing fully optimal portfolios. In particular, I assume that investors are unable to take negative positions in assets. For this version of the model I draw heavily from papers by Glenn (1976), Levy (1978), Merton (1987) and Markowitz (1987, 1990). Finally, I discuss the stock index futures contract - a major financial innovation of worldwide importance that postdates the development of the CAPM. Such contracts can increase the efficiency of capital markets in many ways. In particular, they can bring actual markets closer to the idealized world assumed by the...
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...and services should be produced? * Involves the allocation of a country’s resources in the production of a particular good or service. * Which of the following is the best example of "how goods and services should be produced?" Selected Answer: the use of additional workers versus the use of machines in the production of goods. 2. Factors of production * factors of production, resources, or inputs are what is utilized in the production process in order to produce output—that is, finished goods. * Factors of production may also refer specifically to the primary factors, which are land, labor (the ability to work), and capital goods applied to production * Resources: Land, Labor, Capital, Entrepreneurship and management skills 3. Scarcity and opportunity cost * Scarcity is the condition in which resources are not available to satisfy all needs and wants of a specified group or people. * Opportunity cost is the amount (or subjective value) that must be scarified (given up) in choosing one activity over the next best activity. * Which of the following is the best example of opportunity cost? Selected Answer: the amount of profit that a company forgoes when it decides to drop a particular product line in favor of another one 4. Difference between entrepreneurship and managerial skill *...
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...regime – the exchange rate for a country is allowed to move as factors of supply and demand o AUD, USD, GBP, JPY, EUR o Not controlled by government or central bank (though it can influence the exchange rate when there is rapid appreciation or depreciation i.e. slow it down) o Managed float regime – allows currency to move within a defined range relative to another currency o Crawling peg regime – allows the currency to appreciate gradually over time but within a range established by the government o Pegged rate – currency directly linked to another country Discuss participants in the FX markets o FX dealers and brokers o Central banks – influence exchange rate, change composition of holdings of foreign currencies in managing official reserve assets, purchase foreign currency to pay government imports and interest on or redeem government debt o Firms conducting international trade o Exporters – sell foreign currency and buy AUD o Importers – buy foreign currency and sell AUD o Investors and borrowers in the international money markets and capital markets – investing overseas o Foreign currency speculators – anticipate future rates to make a profit o Arbitrageurs – no risk exposure; o Geographic – taking advantage of when two dealers in different locations quote different rates on same currency o Triangular – taking advantage of when 3 or more currencies are out of alignment Describe the functions and operations of FX markets o Operates 24 hrs a day o Typically the same rates globally...
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...Marks will not be awarded for explanations. Note: 2 marks each a. Which of the following statements applies to the efficient contracting version of positive accounting theory? 1) Earnings management is not necessarily unethical. 2) Firms should design managerial compensation contracts with a high proportion of compensation based on net income. 3) Debt contracts typically contain covenants based on accounting variables. 4) Financial reporting should not be conservative. b. Which of the following statements best captures the meaning of the decision usefulness approach to financial reporting? 1) 2) 3) 4) c. The decision usefulness approach helps standard setters design successful accounting standards. The decision usefulness approach ensures that accountants and auditors behave ethically. The decision usefulness approach encourages the supply of useful information to investors. The decision usefulness approach supports principles-based accounting standards. Which of the following statements about the fundamental value of a share is correct? 1) The fundamental value of a share is the share’s price on an efficient market. 2) The fundamental value of a share is the share’s price on an efficient market with no inside information. 3) The fundamental value of a share is the share’s price if investors are...
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...Conference on "The Risks of Financial Institutions" held in Woodstock, Vermont, October 22-23, 2004, our discussant Martin Hellwig and other participants at the CFS Conference on "Risk Transfer between (Re-)Insurers, Banks, and Markets" held in Frankfurt, June 10-11, 2005, and our discussant Charles Kahn and other participants at the Bank of Portugal Conference on "Financial Fragility and Bank Regulation" held in Lisbon, June 24-25, 2005. Finally, we also thank the editors, Mark Carey and Rene Stulz, for their very helpful comments on an earlier version and Florian Preis for pointing out an error in a previous version. 1 increase systemic risk. This paper shows that both scenarios are possible depending on whether markets and contracts are complete or incomplete....
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...strongly related to the management and control of risks. This lecture gives an overview of the main risks to which banks are subject, namely interest rate risk/market risk, liquidity risk and credit risk, as well as broader systemic risks. We then examine economic issues relating to the core of banks’ traditional business, namely onbalance-sheet lending. We focus in particular on the various ways in which banks seek to control the risks arising from their loan books. This discussion includes a brief assessment of issue of credit rationing which is an issue of both microeconomic and macroeconomic significance. Bank risks – an overview What is risk? – danger that a certain unpredictable contingency can occur, which generates randomness in cashflow Risk and uncertainty – risks may be described using probability analysis (business cycle, company failures), while events subject to uncertainty cannot (financial crises, wars etc.) Risk and variability – variability alone may not entail risk as long as known for sure ex ante The nature of qualitative asset transformation- gives rise to risks because of mismatched balance sheet. Main forms of risk Credit risk – risk that party to contract fails to fully discharge terms of contract Interest rate risk – risk deriving from variation of market prices owing to interest rate change Market risk – more general term for risk of market price shifts Liquidity risk – risk asset owner unable to recover full value of asset when sold (or for borrower...
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...Principal Agent Problems in the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 BMI Master Thesis November 2009 Jasper Holke Klein Supervisor: Rob van der Mei [pic] Faculty of Sciences Business Mathematics and Informatics De Boelelaan 1081a 1081 HV Amsterdam Preface This paper is one of the last compulsory elements of the program Business Mathematics and Informatics at the VU University Amsterdam. The objective of this subject is to demonstrate the student's ability to describe a problem in a clear manner for the benefit of an expert manager. This is accomplished by doing a literature research and to apply this research to a practical situation. I have always had a strong interest in strategic thinking. One of the ways that this is modeled in the scientific theory is through game theory. From the broad range of subjects that are available in game theory I decided to focus on information asymmetry and, more specifically, on the principal-agent relationship as this theory is very widely applicable and has a strong explanatory power. In this way I was able to combine my interest in strategic thinking and the financial sector and able to give a clear explanation for the events that happened within the financial crisis of 2007 - 2009. Finally, I would like to thank my supervisor Rob van der Mei for his comments and suggestions. Amsterdam, November 2009, Jasper Holke Klein Summary This paper analyses the origin of the...
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...18/04/2013 Individual assessment declaration: This assessment item is my own work, except where acknowledged, and is not the result of collaboration with others. Signature / Student ID Date Group assessment declaration: * This work is the result of collaboration amongst all members of the group listed below and no others. All members of the group have contributed to the assessment. Family name Given name Signature/Student ID NB: If the assessment is submitted electronically please type name/s into the signature field. 3392418 3451117 3407374 3405350 Livio Greg Grant Brett Barbagallo Marshall Kaczorowski Daley Gavin 3379593 Jennings Please complete either the individual OR group assessment declaration below. * I declare that I have read, understood and followed the University Rules in respect of student academic misconduct outlined in the Student Code of Conduct and Annexure 1 of the Student Misconduct Procedures. * I declare that this assessment item is my own work, except where acknowledged, and has not been submitted for academic credit previously in whole or in part. * I declare that appropriate citation methodology has been used throughout the assignment in accordance with the UNSW policy on Academic Misconduct. I have read the policy on plagiarism in the AGSM Student Handbook. * I acknowledge that the assessor of this item may, for assessment purposes: ...
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...Marking-to-Market: Panacea or Pandora’s Box? Guillaume Plantin London Business School Haresh Sapra University of Chicago GSB Hyun Song Shin Princeton University August 13, 2007 Abstract Financial institutions have been at the forefront of the debate on the controversial shift in international standards from historical cost accounting to mark-to-market accounting. We show that the trade—o s at stake in this debate are far from one-sided. While the historical cost regime leads to some ine ciencies, marking to market may lead to other types of ine ciencies by injecting artificial risk that degrades the information value of prices, and induces sub—optimal real decisions. We construct a framework that can weigh the pros and cons. We find that the damage done by marking to market is greatest when claims are (i) long—lived, (ii) illiquid, and (iii) senior. These are precisely the attributes of the key balance sheet items of banks and insurance companies. Our results therefore shed light on why banks and insurance companies have been the most vocal opponents of the shift to marking to market. We are grateful to both our editor, Ray Ball, for his advice and comments and to an anonymous referee for many useful comments. We also thank participants at the 2007 Journal of Accounting Research conference as well as participants in various seminars, and, in particular, Doug Diamond, Ron Dye, Xavier Freixas, Milt Harris, Charles Goodhart, Raghu Rajan, Rafael Repullo...
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...through of as the study of the following 3 questions: 1. In what long-term assets should the firm invest? (Capital budgeting) 2. How can the firm raise cash for required capital expenditures? (Capital structure) 3. How should short-term operation cash flows be managed? (Working capital management) Forms of business organization: * Proprietorship- single owner * Partnership- more than one owner * Corporation- legal entity separate and distinct form its owners and managers. * Corporations * Advantages: * Unlimited life- independent of owners * Ease transfer of ownership * Limited liability * Ease of raising capital * Disadvantages: * Double taxation * Cost of set-up and report filing Maximizing value * Limited liability- the lower the risk the higher the value, all else equal * Growth opportunities: corporations can raise capital easier to take advantage of these opportunities. * Liquidity: an asset value also depends on how easy it is to sell it. Management’s primary goal Our focus: profit, publicity held companies Management’s goal: maximize shareholder wealth, which translates into maximizing the stock price. Maximizing shareholder value: A company’s shareholder wealth is equal to the number of shrares outstanding times market value per share. * We need to know what factors affect the stock price. * The value of a share of stock is the present value of the cash flows...
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...shown that government entry to the market as a competitor which sells insurance, results in all potential buyers actually purchasing insurance. Chapter II: The welfare trade off between reduction in risk and enhanced market power, as depository institutions become larger but fewer, is studied. The main result is that when there are enough independent risks in the economy, it is possible to achieve high diversification through mergers between depository institutions at a very small cost in terms of greater market power. Chapter III: Firms wishing to issue securities on the stock market are required to disclose private information which might be beneficial to competitors. Issuing securities publicly is more costly than doing so privately. In equilibrium, firms with sensitive information issue securities privately, while competitors cannot unambiguously infer that the information withheld is very sensitive. This suggests that one special role of banks and venture capital in financial markets, is to provide debt and equity financing, respectively, confidentially. Chapter IV: A decentralized market with pairwise meetings of agents is studied. There is a one sided information asymmetry regarding the state of the world, which may be “low” or “high.” The set of equilibria of the model is characterized, and its behavior is studied as the market becomes approximately frictionless. For any one sided information...
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...equity? A. Inadequate investment opportunities B. A slow-down in economic growth C. A reduction in corporate profits D. A seasonal reduction in sales revenues 5) When public corporations decide to raise cash in the capital markets, what type of financing vehicle is most favored? A. Retained earnings B. Preferred stock C. Common stock D. Corporate bonds 6) __________ is a method of offering securities to a limited number of investors. A. Public offering B. Initial public offering C. Syndicated underwriting D. Private placement 7) According to the agency problem, _________ represent the principals of a corporation. A. employees B. shareholders C. suppliers D. managers 8) Which of the following is NOT a principle of basic financial management? A. Efficient capital markets B. Risk/return tradeoff C. Profit is king D. Incremental cash flow counts 9) Difficulty in finding profitable projects is due to: A. ethical dilemmas. B. social responsibility. C. opportunity costs. D. competitive markets. 10) Another name for the acid test ratio is...
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