...Outline Global Company Profile: Tupperware What is Forecasting? Forecasting Time Horizons The Influence of Product Life Cycle Types of Forecasts The Strategic Importance of Forecasting Human Resources Capacity Supply-Chain Management Seven Steps in the Forecasting System 4-2 Outline - Continued Forecasting Approaches Overview of Qualitative Methods Overview of Quantitative Methods Time-Series Forecasting Decomposition of Time Series Naïve Approach Moving Averages Exponential Smoothing Exponential Smoothing with Trend Adjustment Trend Projections Seasonal Variations in Data Cyclic Variations in Data 4-3 Outline - Continued Associative Forecasting Methods: Regression and Correlation Analysis Using Regression Analysis to Forecast Standard Error of the Estimate Correlation Coefficients for Regression Lines Multiple-Regression Analysis Monitoring and Controlling Forecasts Adaptive Smoothing Focus Forecasting Forecasting in the Service Sector 4-4 Learning Objectives When you complete this chapter, you should be able to : Identify or Define: Forecasting Types of forecasts Time horizons Approaches to forecasts 4-5 Learning Objectives - continued When you complete this chapter, you should be able to : Describe or Explain: Moving averages Exponential smoothing Trend projections Regression and correlation analysis ...
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...PRODUCTION AND OPERATION MANAGEMENT PART ONE 1. Inputs in to outputs 2. The first operation to the finished product 3. Demand that is controlled by the company 4. Complete Enterprise wide business solution 5. Computer aided design 6.Technological forecast 7. All of the above 8. Production planning and scheduling & control system 9. Functional layout 10. Work measurement PART TWO 1. Define job shop production? Job Shop Production: In this system, products are manufactured to meet the requirements of a specific order. Quality is not given too much importance and the manufacturing of a product takes place as per the specifications given by the customer. This system may be further classified into the following categories: The Job produced only once: Here, a customer visits a firm and places their order. When the product is ready, the customer takes it and leaves. The customer may not visit the firm again to place an order for the same product. Such a firm will have little scope for pre-planning the production of a product. The norm will be that it will plan for the materials, manpower and the process to be followed only after it has received an order from a customer. The job produced at irregular intervals: Here, a customer visits a firm to place orders for the same type of the product at irregular intervals. The firm will not have any idea of the customer's visits. Here as well, the planning for materials, manpower and the process to be followed will start...
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...Operation Management – Forecasting Outline: * * Global Company Profile: Tupperware Corporation * What Is Forecasting? * Forecasting Time Horizons * The Influence of Product Life Cycle * Types Of Forecasts * The Strategic Importance Of Forecasting * Human Resources * Capacity * Supply-Chain Management * Seven Steps In The Forecasting System * Time-series Forecasting * Decomposition of a Time Series * Naïve Approach * Moving Averages * Exponential Smoothing * Exponential Smoothing with Trend Adjustment * Trend Projections * Seasonal Variations in Data * Cyclical Variations in Data * Associative Forecasting Methods: Regression And Correlation Analysis * Using Regression Analysis to Forecast * Standard Error of the Estimate * Correlation Coefficients for Regression Lines * Multiple-Regression Analysis * Monitoring And Controlling Forecasts * Adaptive Smoothing * Focus Forecasting * Forecasting In The Service Sector Learning Objectives When you complete this chapter, you should be able to: Identify or Define: * Forecasting * Types of forecasts * Time horizons * Approaches to forecasts Describe or Explain: * Moving averages * Exponential smoothing * Trend projections * Regression and correlation analysis * Measures of forecast accuracy Forecasting at Tupperware Tupperware...
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...QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUES Qualitative forecasting techniques are generally more subjective than their quantitative counterparts. Qualitative techniques are more useful in the earlier stages of the product life cycle, when less past data exists for use in quantitative methods. Qualitative methods include the Delphi technique, Nominal Group Technique (NGT), sales force opinions, executive opinions, and market research. THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE. The Delphi technique uses a panel of experts to produce a forecast. Each expert is asked to provide a forecast specific to the need at hand. After the initial forecasts are made, each expert reads what every other expert wrote and is, of course, influenced by their views. A subsequent forecast is then made by each expert. Each expert then reads again what every other expert wrote and is again influenced by the perceptions of the others. This process repeats itself until each expert nears agreement on the needed scenario or numbers. NOMINAL GROUP TECHNIQUE. Nominal Group Technique is similar to the Delphi technique in that it utilizes a group of participants, usually experts. After the participants respond to forecast-related questions, they rank their responses in order of perceived relative importance. Then the rankings are collected and aggregated. Eventually, the group should reach a consensus regarding the priorities of the ranked issues. SALES FORCE OPINIONS. The sales staff is often a good source of information regarding future demand...
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...Forecasting is described as, “the art and science of predicting future events” (Heizer, Render, & Griffen, 2014). It’s used a planning tool that helps management cope with the uncertainty of the future. Forecasting has many purposes within businesses and the purpose will vary depending on what type of organization you’re running or working for. Forecasting includes many different types of techniques that have the ability to give detailed information about future measurements, challenges of future events, and the changes in the environment. It can also analyze present data and effective planning in both the short run and the long run fully depends on the forecasts established for the company’s products. Forecasting gives confidence in those making important decisions due to the relevant and reliable information predicted. Forecasting may involve the use of historical data through mathematical equations to track future trends, which is known as quantitative forecasts. Quantitative methods of forecasting falls into two categories, the Time Series Models such as Naïve Approach, Moving Averages and Exponential Smoothing as well as the Associative Model that includes Trend Projection and Linear Regression. Forecasting may also be used in a more subjective or intuitive prediction if historical data is not present, which is known as qualitative forecasts. This category of forecasting involves four specific techniques used, Jury of executive opinion, Delphi Method, Sales Force Composite...
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...productive enterprise • All of the above 2. An operations manager is not likely to be involved in ______________. • the quality of goods and services to satisfy customers’ wants and needs • the design of goods and services to satisfy customers’ wants and needs • the identification of customers’ wants and needs • maintenance schedules • work scheduling to meet the due dates promised to customers 3. Which of the following are part of the Ten Critical Decisions of Operations Management? 4. design of goods and services 5. managing quality III. layout strategy 1. marketing 2. pricing of goods and services I,II,IV I,II,V II,III,V I,II,III All of the abov 4. Henry Ford is noted for his contributions to _______________. • time and motion studies • material requirements planning • assembly line operations • statistical quality control • scientific management 5. Which of the following is the best example of a pure service? • electric co-op • counseling • oil change • heart transplant • All of the above 6. Which is not true regarding differences between goods and services? • Goods tend to have higher customer interaction than services. • Services tend to be more knowledge-based than goods. • Services are generally produced and consumed simultaneously; tangible goods are not. •...
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...productive enterprise • All of the above 2. An operations manager is not likely to be involved in ______________. • the quality of goods and services to satisfy customers’ wants and needs • the design of goods and services to satisfy customers’ wants and needs • the identification of customers’ wants and needs • maintenance schedules • work scheduling to meet the due dates promised to customers 3. Which of the following are part of the Ten Critical Decisions of Operations Management? 4. design of goods and services 5. managing quality III. layout strategy 1. marketing 2. pricing of goods and services I,II,IV I,II,V II,III,V I,II,III All of the abov 4. Henry Ford is noted for his contributions to _______________. • time and motion studies • material requirements planning • assembly line operations • statistical quality control • scientific management 5. Which of the following is the best example of a pure service? • electric co-op • counseling • oil change • heart transplant • All of the above 6. Which is not true regarding differences between goods and services? • Goods tend to have higher customer interaction than services. • Services tend to be more knowledge-based than goods. • Services are generally produced and consumed simultaneously; tangible goods are not. •...
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...FORECASTING FUNDAMENTALS Forecast: A prediction, projection, or estimate of some future activity, event, or occurrence. Types of Forecasts * Economic forecasts * Predict a variety of economic indicators, like money supply, inflation rates, interest rates, etc. * Technological forecasts * Predict rates of technological progress and innovation. * Demand forecasts * Predict the future demand for a company’s products or services. Since virtually all the operations management decisions (in both the strategic category and the tactical category) require as input a good estimate of future demand, this is the type of forecasting that is emphasized in our textbook and in this course. TYPES OF FORECASTING METHODS Qualitative methods: These types of forecasting methods are based on judgments, opinions, intuition, emotions, or personal experiences and are subjective in nature. They do not rely on any rigorous mathematical computations. Quantitative methods: These types of forecasting methods are based on mathematical (quantitative) models, and are objective in nature. They rely heavily on mathematical computations. QUALITATIVE FORECASTING METHODS Qualitative Methods ...
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...Forecasting Why forecast? Features Common to all Forecasts • Conditions in the past will continue in the future • Rarely perfect • Forecasts for groups tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individuals • Forecast accuracy declines as time horizon increases Elements of a Good Forecast • Timely • Accurate • Reliable (should work consistently) • Forecast expressed in meaningful units • Communicated in writing • Simple to understand and use Steps in Forecasting Process • Determine purpose of the forecast • Establish a time horizon • Select forecasting technique • Gather and analyze the appropriate data • Prepare the forecast • Monitor the forecast Types of Forecasts • Qualitative o Judgment and opinion o Sales force o Consumer surveys o Delphi technique • Quantitative o Regression and Correlation (associative) o Time series Forecasts Based on Time Series Data • What is Time Series? • Components (behavior) of Time Series data o Trend o Cycle o Seasonal o Irregular o Random variations Naïve Methods Naïve Forecast – uses a single previous value of a time series as the basis of a forecast. [pic] Techniques for Averaging • What is the purpose of averaging? • Common Averaging Techniques ...
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...Forecasting Why forecast? Features Common to all Forecasts • Conditions in the past will continue in the future • Rarely perfect • Forecasts for groups tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individuals • Forecast accuracy declines as time horizon increases Elements of a Good Forecast • Timely • Accurate • Reliable (should work consistently) • Forecast expressed in meaningful units • Communicated in writing • Simple to understand and use Steps in Forecasting Process • Determine purpose of the forecast • Establish a time horizon • Select forecasting technique • Gather and analyze the appropriate data • Prepare the forecast • Monitor the forecast Types of Forecasts • Qualitative o Judgment and opinion o Sales force o Consumer surveys o Delphi technique • Quantitative o Regression and Correlation (associative) o Time series Forecasts Based on Time Series Data • What is Time Series? • Components (behavior) of Time Series data o Trend o Cycle o Seasonal o Irregular o Random variations Naïve Methods Naïve Forecast – uses a single previous value of a time series as the basis of a forecast. [pic] Techniques for Averaging • What is the purpose of averaging? • Common Averaging Techniques o Moving Averages o Exponential smoothing ...
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...PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT BUS3020 COURSE CONTENT WEEK THREE TOPIC: FORECASTING • Different Methods of Forecasting – Formal and Informal, • Qualitative and Quantitative Methods • Causal methods auto projection methods of forecasting. What is forecasting? Forecasting is the art and science of predicting future events. As a science it uses historical data and projects them into the future using mathematical models. As an art it uses intuition or judgment to predict the future. Why forecast? Done to minimize uncertainty and evaluate risk relating to future events caused by dynamism of the environment within which organizations operate. Such dynamisms includes: a) Changes in legislation b) Stiff competition c) Demographic changes. Forecasting is important for planning and control of functional areas such as; marketing, finance, operations e.t.c.In the public sector, forecasts are used to plan on: Health, Education, Social services e.t.c. Types of forecasts • Demand forecasts – projections of demand for a company’s products or services. • Economic forecasts – predicts inflation rates, money supplies e.t.c • Technological forecasts.- concerned with the rate of technological progress. Forecasting Horizons a) Short – range forecasts: Covers from a few days to 6 months. It concerns issues like purchase forecasts, job scheduling, workforce levels, job assignments, production levels e.t.c. b) Medium range forecasts: Covers usually from 3 months...
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...design, management and improvement of the right processes!OM has the role and the tools to determine the production of quality outputs at a competitive cost structure! originate, improve or decline:Productivity,Quality,Cost,Timeliness, convenience, availability,Customer Service. BASIC FORECASTING APPROACHES: Qualitative (Judgmental) Methods: Intuition, emotions, experience, expertise, value system. No data available, vague situations: new product or technology. Jury of Executive Opinion, Delphi Method, Sales force composite, Consumer market surveys.; Quantitative (Statistical) Methods: Mathematical models, historical data, causality. Data available, stable situations: Existing products, technology. Time-series Models: Naïve approach, Moving averages, Exponential smoothing. Associative (regression) Methods: Simple regression (trend projection if x=t) ,Multiple regression. Average completion time: Total flow time/Number of jobs/Utilization =Total job work time/Total flow time Average number of jobs in the system=Total flow time/Total job work time/Average job lateness =Total late days/Number of jobs CR=Time remaining to due date/Shop time remaining/SRO=(Time remaining to due date – Shop time remaining)/Number of operations remaining Tools for Service Design :Service encounter design,Service guarantee,Service blueprinting,Documents for service...
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...FORECASTING - a method for translating past experience into estimates of the future. Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not yet been observed. A commonplace example might be estimation of the expected value for some variable of interest at some specified future date. Prediction is a similar, but more general term. Both might refer to formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgemental methods. Usage can differ between areas of application: for example in hydrology, the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction; it is generally considered good practice to indicate the degree of uncertainty attaching to forecasts. The process of climate change and increasing energy prices has led to the usage of Egain Forecasting of buildings. The method uses Forecasting to reduce the energy needed to heat the building, thus reducing the emission of greenhouse gases. Forecasting is used in the practice of Customer Demand Planning in every day business forecasting for manufacturing companies. The discipline of demand planning, also sometimes referred to as supply chain forecasting, embraces...
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...the opportunity to prepare this assignment which has brought to us a lot of nice experiences. Thank You! Your Sincerely HASAN MONJURUR RAHMAN 092 0429 030 IMROJ AMAN 092 0521 030 USSAMA ABU SAYEED 091 0519 030 NAZIA HOSSAIN 091 0232 030 PRANTAR DAS ANOY 092 0227 030 2 Acknowledgement I would like to pay my sincere gratitude to almighty Allah for giving us adequate patience and knowledge to prepare this project about identifying a operational problem and solution of that problem of a company. To take such a challenge of identifying problems was quite a challenge. But thanks again to almighty that we have been able to do this without experiencing any big difficulty and have been able to finish it in time. Making this project would not been possible without the help and proper...
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...PRODUCTION PLANNING AND CONTROL Assignment A Marks 10 Answer all questions. 1. a) Explain the forecasting process? What are the techniques for monitoring forecasts? b) Explain various forecasting models. a) A planning tool that helps management in its attempts to cope with the uncertainty of the future, relying mainly on data from the past and present and analysis of trends. Forecasting starts with certain assumptions based on the management's experience, knowledge, and judgment. Qualitative & Quantitative techniques are the two techniques used for monitoring forecasts. b) There are two types of forecasting models which are : Time Series Models Causal Models or Associative Models 2. a) What is aggregate production plan? What are the pure strategies for APP? a) Aggregate production planning refers to the process of deciding the overall quantities of products to be manufactured or produced in a plant or other manufacturing facility during a medium term planning period such as a month, or a quarter. The aggregate plan output consist of the total quantities of each product or a group of product to be manufactured in the plan period of going into details of scheduling of different manufacturing activities required to achieve the planned production levels. The aggregate production will also not specify details such as the dates when material ordered against individual customer...
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