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Banking Crisis - Usa

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KRAH SISTEMA POVERENJA I OSNOVA FINANSIJSKE KRIZE 2008.
Dana 15. septembra 2008 godine, američka poznata investiciona banka Lehman Brothers objavila je da je otišla pod stečaj. To je bila, videćemo kasnije, inicijalna kapisla svetske ekonomske krize koja će ovim događajem dobiti jači zamah. Tog 15-og septembra je čuveni Američki ekonomista Bernejnk (Bernanke) dao izjavu da SAD možda u ponedeljak neće imati ekonomiju.
Slično je razmišljao i Robert Lukas, predstavnik nove klasične makroekonomije i osnivač škole racionalnih očekivanja. Lukas je tada rekao da bi recesija možda ličila na one krahove koji su uobičajeni za kapitalizam da nije došlo do sloma Lehman Brothers-a. Pesimizam je dolazio i od onih koji su inače razmišljali drugačije od Lukasa. Tako je Blajnder (Alan Blinder ), profesor na Prinstonu, saradnik demokratske stranke i tradicionalni etatista rekao da je krah Lehman Brothers-a izazvao opštu paniku u finansijskom sistemu SAD-a, krediti su zamrznuti i to je predstavljalo ključnu grešku koja je ubrzala krizu. Bankrot Lehman-a je označio početak sistemske krize i ogromnog gubitka poverenja.
Kako je moguće da je jedan izolovan događaj kao što je krah jedne banke bio ovoliko poguban za američku i svetsku ekonomiju ? Pokušaćemo da simuliramo kako su stvari tekle fokusirajući se na tri ključna perioda, događaje pre 15. septembra, situaciju koja je neposredno prethodila bankrotu i ono što se desilo posle bankrota.
Pokušaćemo ovde da ukažemo na značaj poverenja za finansijski sistem. Postoje vrlo raširena mišljenja da se tekuća finansijska kriza ne može razumeti bez mehanizma i doprinosa poverenja, odnosno da budemo jasniji, njegovog gubitka. Uloga banke na koju smo se mi fokusirali u celoj ovoj stvari bila je vrlo signifikantna.
Poverenje igra značajnu ulogu u bankarstvu. Nagli pad poverenja gotovo sigurno izaziva narastajući strah i izaziva probleme koje ćemo u nastavku detaljno razmatrati. Poverenje koje se zahteva u bankarstvu znatno je veće od neophodnog nivoa u ostalim sektorima ekonomije. Poverenje između pojedinaca koje se zahteva prilikom bankarskih transakcija ne postoji u drugim industrijama. Dva su razloga kojima se ovo može objasniti. Prvi je usko povezan sa likvidnošću a drugi sa solventnošću. Banke operišu sa sredstvima različitog dospeća, depoziti su kratkoročni izvori a krediti obično imaju duži rok. Kada neki događaj uzdrma poverenje vlasnika depozita, oni će pohrliti u banke da uzmu svoj novac. Što je veći iznos pozajmljenog kapitala prema iznosu depozita banka će imati veći problem sa likvidnošću i gubitak poverenja će se nastavljati stvarajući circulos vitiosus.
Drugi razlog je povezan sa solventnošću banke. Ovaj razlog uzima u razmatranje eventualne gubitke koje banka može ostvariti kroz svoje pozajmice. Banke, dakle, nisu samo ugrožene zbog problema sa likvidnošću već i zbog opasnosti koje nose eventualni kreditni gubici koji se moraju pokriti iz kapitala banke. Što je iznos tih kredita veći to je banka ranjivija. Naravno, gubici povratno utiču na leveridž banke i ponovo ruše poverenje. Još je opasnije ako postoje skriveni gubici. Njihovo obelodanjivanje može izazvati događaj izvan domena banke a sve to može rezultirati slomom čitavog bankarskog sistema. Struktura finansijskog sistema je složena i delikatna , sa visokom dozom poverenja u normalnim uslovima. Mali incident može narušiti metabolizam sistema, a veći ga potpuno može uništiti.
Poverenje je spremnost tržišnog aktera da zasniva svoje akcije ne na najboljim dostupnim informacijama o nekom stanju stvari već na određenim pokazateljima koji upućuju na to stanje stvari. Olson je na zanimljiv način pokušao da objasni ovaj fenomen: kada hodamo i ispod nas se nalazi beton, mi stvarno verujemo da je u pitanju beton a ne papir naslikan da liči na beton. Isto je i u bankarstvu. Veruje se u ono što se vidi ili u ono što nam osobe u koje imamo poverenja poručuju. Kada radimo sa pojedincima ili firmama, svoje odluke često baziramo na proceni da li će oni platiti robu ili vratiti dug, za šta nam pouzdanu osnovu pružaju , recimo, finansijski izveštaji. Kada je u pitanju finansijski sistem, procene se uglavnom baziraju na procenama revizorskih preduzeća ili agencija za kreditni rejting. Upravo su ove druge u SAD-u određivale sudbinu finansijskog sistema prvo rangirajući banke zbog količine odobrenih kredita licima za koja je postojala garancija FREDDIE MAC-a a potom zbog rizika odobrenih kredita u jeku hipotekarne krize.
Pogledajmo u istorijskom smislu kakve karakteristike poseduje savremeni finansijski sistem. U Breton-Vudskom sistemu ponašanje na bankarskom tržištu bilo je konzervativno i ne preterano sklono špekulacijama. Promene koje su usledile posle ukidanja ovog sistema išle su u suprotnom pravcu. Sistem je postajao dinamičniji nego ikad, trgovina valutama i tokovi kapitala dostizali su svoj maksimum. Nacionalni sistemi su sve više postajali otvoreni i moglo se govoriti o rastu svetskog finansijskog sistema. Ovaj sistem je skloniji krizi nego što su to bili sistemi pre njega. Regulisani sistemi su danas zamenjeni sistemima sa snažnom konkurencijom, velikim pritiskom da se prikazuju ogromni profiti i spekulativnim profilima. Pritisak i moć centralnih banaka da drže sistem pod kontrolom značajno su smanjeni.
Ne samo da je tradicionalni pojam banke promenjen, već je i priličan broj nebankarskih institucija počeo da se bavi bankarskim transakcijama. Razlog za ovo je po liberalnim ekonomistima prevelika regulacija na američkom bankarskom tržištu. Problem sa ovim nebankarskim institucijama je što nisu potpadali pod bankarsku legislativu. Nosile su veliki deo narastajućeg rizika i postaće poznate kao bankarstvo iz senke. Ove institucije su imale ekvivalente za gotovo sve bankarske instrumente koji su nosili još veći prinos.
Primeri za ovakve institucije su investicione banke, osiguravajuća društva, hedž fondovi, hipotekarni brokeri i off-shore bankarstvo. Informacije koje su pružale ove organizacije prilično su bile oskudne, kao i regulacija da se drže rezerve za slučaj gubitaka. Poverenje je mnogo ranjivije nego što je to bio slučaj u klasičnom bankarstvu. Stvoreno je i mnogo finansijskih instrumenata koji su vrlo nejasni i često su ih samo eksperti za tu oblast mogli razumeti. Sa nekim od njih se čak nije ni trgovalo na tržištu pa je njihova vrednost određivana na drugačije načine. Često su procene vršile agencije za kreditni rejting koje nisu mogle biti upoznate sa stvarnim stanjem. Ovi instrumenti su jednostavno toliko nedokučivi da većina verziranih pratilaca nije znala šta se zaista događa pa je morala da veruje u ono što su institucije emitenti objavljivali. Ovo je povećavalo rizik koji će izaći na videlo krahom sistema 2008.
Posle kraha DOTCOM-a i terorističkih napada 2001, SAD je vodila ekspanzivnu monetarnu politiku. U kombinaciji sa porastom nebankarskih institucija i novih instrumenata veliki iznosi kapitala su doticali u SAD u potrazi za kamatnim profitima. Mehur na tržištu nekretnina takođe je narastao delom zbog aktivnosti FUNNIE MAE-a i kredita koji su odobravani u zamenu za hipoteke na stanove kojima je abnormalno rasa vrednost. Kroz proces sekjuritizacije ova dva mehura su bila povezana. Hipoteke su sada povezane i pretvorene u CDO obveznice koje su prodavane investitorima u SAD-u i sa strane. Karakteristika ovih transakcija je bila da su kuće kupovali i oni koji to u stvarnim uslovima nisu mogli. Uslov je bio jedino hipoteka na kupljenu kuću. Sistem je bio održiv jedino pod uslovom da tržište nekretnina nastavi da raste. Međutim kada je ono počelo naglo da pada, padala je i cena obveznica koje su imale hipotekarnu pozadinu. Upravo ovaj proces je izazvao bankrot mnogih banaka i osiguravajućih društava koja su reosiguravala ove instrumente. To je način na koji je do Bankrota dospeo i Lehman.
LEHMAN BROTHERS – KORENI PROBLEMA
Nakon objašnjenja mehanizma koji je doveo do krize pažnju ćemo usmeriti na specifične probleme koje su banku Lehman Brothers doveli do ruba propasti.

Grafikon 1: Rast cena nekretnina, populacije i kretanje kamatnih stopa
Sa grafikona se jasno vidi da produženi period niskih kamatnih stopa dovodi do rasta cena nekretnina. Ovaj rast je najočitiji posle 2001. godine i takav uspon nije viđen u istoriji SAD-a. Zvuči gotovo neverovatno da je povećanje iznosilo 12% godišnje. Rasla su očekivanja u pogledu daljeg rasta cena i u pogledu mogućnosti otplate duga jer se vrednost kuća konstantno povećavala. Kao rezultat svega toga, kreditni standardi su se dalje labavili i banke, kao i nebankarske institucije su konkurisale jedne drugima u izdavanju obveznica i opcija na nekvalitetne hipoteke. Postoji vrlo jednostavno objašnjenje zašto se to tako odvijalo – Banke su formirale pulove ovih hipotekarnih kredita kako bi im smanjile rizik, odnosno , povećale uverenje da i m je rizik smanjen. Te hartije su onda osiguravane i čak reosiguravane. Pošto je bilo jasno da izdavaoci neće snositi rizik oni su ih sve više izdavali i cene nekretnina su i dalje rasle do tačke maksimuma. Udeo loših hipotekarnih kredita dostigao je 51% aktive, a racio kredita prema dohotku čak 42,4 %. Kvalitet ovih instrumenata mogao je biti procenjen od strane agencija na slobodnom tržištu, ali je i tu nastalo nekoliko problema.
Obveznice su prodavane u tranšama različite starosti i smatrane su izrazito bezbednim jer je njihova bezbednost procenjivana na osnovu istorijskih podataka koji međutim nisu uzimali u obzir mogućnost da cene nekretnina padnu jer procene nisu dosezale kritičnu 1929. Zatim, model za procenu rizika ovih hartija poznat kao FICO skor nije uzimao u obzir korelaciju različitih hartija od vrednosti kao i efekat tržišnog širenja (spread effect). Različiti stručnjaci su ocenili da je problem bio u tome što nije pronađen integrativni model koji bi uključio sve učesnike na finansijskom tržištu.
Velika količina izdatih hartija od vrednosti izdata je od strane ograničenog broja institucija, od kojih je najveća bila Lehman Brothers. Ovaj iznos hartija od vrednosti promenio je tradicionalne odnose između investicionih banaka i agencija za kreditni rejting. Prema jednom istraživanju, u uzorku od 1257 osiguranih hipoteka čak 128 pripadalo je Lehman-u.
Izdavanjem kolateralizovanih obveznica, investicione banke su kupovale na stotine usluga agencija za kreditni rejting. Umesto da agencije realno procenjuju rizik ovih hartija, konkurecija među njima je dovela do toga da one izdaju uputstva kako da se uz najmanju moguću cenu dobije najveći mogući rejting. Na primer, Standard and Poors je razvio evaluator CDO obveznica koji ih je precenjivao da bi agencija održala svoj udeo investicionih banki i ostalih institucija na tržištu. Hipotekarne hartije od vrednosti sa kreditnim rejtingom AAA imale su veći prinos od korporativnih hartija od vrednosti što je dodatno povećalo prilive novca u ove institucije i naduvalo mehur.
Loša regulacija je pogoršala stanje. Inflacija je naduvala tražnju za ovim proizvodima a FREDDIE MAC i FUNNIE MAE su ohrabrivani da ulažu svoja sredstva u hipotekarne obveznice. Formirano je čak i odeljenje za stambena i urbana pitanja koje je obezbeđivalo da ove organizacije rade u skladu sa svojom svrhom, a to je bila pomoć licima koja nisu mogla da dobiju hipotekarni kredit zbog malih prihoda ili imovine, i rangiranje banaka na osnovu odobrenih kredita po propisanim uslovima. Na taj način banke koje su poslovale najrizičnije, a to su one sa najvećim ulaganjima dovedene su na siguran put u propast.

Takođe je važno napomenuti i rad GSE organizacije. Reč je o entitetima koje je finansirala država a koji su imali pretežno socijalni karakter vlastitog delovanja. GSE (Government Sponsored Entities ) imali su zadatak da pomognu kupovinu stanova i kuća porodicama koje prvi put kupuju nekretnine. Mehanizam kojim su se kontrolisali ciljevi bio je krajnje neefikasan i izrazito loš zimajući u vidu posledice koje je izazvao. Naime, ciljevi u smislu propisane količine prodatih stanova određivali su se kao procenat odobrenih hipotekarnih kredita, čime je mogućnost njihove otplate značajno smanjena budući da su mahom bile u pitanju porodice sa srednjim ili niskim nivoom dohotka.
Drugi izvor zarobljenog novca na tržištu bili su fondovi. Potreba da se drže samo hartije od vrednosti sa visokim prinosima kako bi se zadržali za profitom gladni klijenti naterala je menadžere ovih fondova na rizične poduhvate. Daleko od toga da oni nisu bili svesni rizika, ali je njihovo razmišljanje u tom momentu bilo vrlo slično i karakteristično : CDO obveznice su kupovali svi tako da reputacija ni u kom slučaju neće biti ugrožena sve i dođe do nekog kraha. Osim toga, krah bi značio i da u celu priču ulazi država sa namerom da pomogne jer je velika većina pogođena.

Tabela 1: Dinamika aktive banke Lehman Brothers neposredno pre i nakon izbijanja krize.

Grafikon 2: Kretanje cena akcija Lehman Brothersa posle izbijanja krize.
Sa priloženih empirijskih pokazatelja jasno se vidi da je početkom 2008 banka doživela osetno smanjenje imovine. Ovo smanjenje je, međutim, bilo više monetarnog karaktera jer je padala vrednost hartijama koje je banka posedovala zbog pada cena kuća i stanova. Šta se dalje dogodilo možemo videti sa grafikona 2, gde je očit pad cena akcija tokom čitave 2008. godine. Pad cena akcija usledio je zbog pada poverenja usled velikih gubitaka nastalih po osnovu osiguranih hipotekarnih hartija koje se nisu mogle unovčiti i koje su onda dalje obarale vrednost nekretnina a sa njima institucija koje su u svom portoliju imale zavisne instrumente od hipotekarnog tržišta.

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