...Quantitative Analysis for Business (QAT1) Submitted 05/05/2015 Assignment 309.3.3-04 Version LMF5-28 Student: Richard McClanahan Student ID: 000343792 TASK #5 Answer Task 5A Calculate the expected value for EACH of the four decision branches. 1. Develop Thoroughly: GOOD) $500,000 (0.45) = $225,000 MOD.) $25,000 (0.10) = $2,500 POOR) $1,000 (0.45) = $450 TOTAL EXPECTED VALUE: $227,950 2. Develop Rapidly: GOOD) $500,000 (0.52) = $260,000 MOD) $25,000 (0.23) =$5,700 POOR) $1,000 (0.25) =$250 TOTAL EXPECTED VALUE: $265,950 3. Strengthen Products GOOD) $2,000 (0.33) = $660 MOD) $10,000 (0.52) = $5,200 POOR) $3,000 (0.15) = $450 TOTAL EXPECTED VALUE: $6,310 4. Reap without investing GOOD) $10,000 (0.33) = $3,300 POOR) $1,000 (0.67) = $670 TOTAL EXPECTED VALUE: $3,970 EXPLINATION: We take the projected payoff and multiply that payoff by the probability factor. So if the good payoff to develop a product rapidly is $500,000, we then multiply that by the probability factor of 52%, or 0.52. That gives us a probable payoff of $260,000. Following this simply process, we extrapolate these results as listed above. ANSWER TASK 5B After calculating the total expected value for each decision alternative, the most profitable decision would be to RAPIDLY DEVELOP new products for a probable...
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...Can One Chose to Believe? Many followers of western religion find it hard to understand why others do not believe as they do. Take, for instance, the argument of Pascal's wager (Pensees pg. 151-153). Why would a person not chose to accept and follow God when there is everything to gain and nothing to lose? All one must do according to the Christian bible (NIV) is, "believe in the Lord Jesus, and be saved..." (Acts 16:31). Western religion emphasizes the importance of choosing to believe in and embrace God, but there may be an underlying and critical flaw in this collective religious conviction; does one actually choose to believe something, or is it merely an involuntary outlook based on what we perceive to be true from life experience? Belief can also be examined in everyday life. It is all around and is used for every decision and in every thought. Borchert's Encyclopedia of Philosophy exemplifies the ulterior complexities of belief that many people are not conscious of; belief is "...a species of propositional attitude distinguished by having the mind-to-world direction of fit" (Borchert). A propositional attitude is simply a psychological mode paired with psychological content. In the case of belief, belief itself would be the psychological mode, and what one believes would be the content. The "mind-to-world direction of fit" refers to belief's "...aim to represent how the world is independently"(Borchert). With a verbal definition of belief, it is also necessary...
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...mathematics at center stage, disdaining qualitative physics as irrelevant, unknowable, and misleading. Consistent with their methodology, the mechanists tended to reduce the ontological reality of the natural world to its quantitative aspects, implicitly or explicitly eliminating all categories other than extension, time, space, and motion. In this interpretation, Descartes’ treatment of matter as extension merely formalized an intellectual aesthetic that even his adversaries held in practice. We can easily see this penchant for quantification in Newton’s belief that all physics is mechanical, but we might not expect to find a mania for quantity among those who held a more poetic view of reality. Such an enigma is precisely what we discover in Blaise Pascal, a man who intensely contemplated the ineffable qualitative aspects of human and divine reality, yet remained as thoroughly mechanistic in his treatment of the natural world as Descartes himself. By exploring this dual reality of Pascal’s intellectual life, we can examine how his brand of fideism synthesized the enchanted world of his Catholic faith with a seemingly disenchanted, corpuscular, quantitative science. During his privileged youth, Pascal enjoyed the advantages of a critical scientific education and the company of the greatest French luminaries, including Descartes, Fermat, Roberval, Mersenne, and Gassendi. By the time he published his Essai pour les coniques (1640) at the age of sixteen, Pascal...
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...Abgenix, following the business strategy of a platform company, should pursue the deal with Biopart, keeping a joint venture relationship for the development of ABX-EGF. Abgenix’s strategy to generate revenue relies on having the XenoMouse, which is capable of identifying various antibodies for specific targets. Thus, the company focuses on licensing the technology to various collaborators as well as pursuing early stages of drug development before selling the rights to the drug. Given the potential of ABX-EGF to gain FDA approval as well as the financial benefits from the deal, the value proposition from the Biopart is greater than that of the Pharmacol proposition. While the risk of pursuing a deal with Biopart is much greater than that of Pharmacol, the deal itself fits better with Abgenix’s strategy of developing skills and capabilities for the long term and balancing risk and potential rewards. Given that the likelihood of success for ABX-EGF to gain FDA approval and be commercialized is only 40%, the company needs to evaluate the overall expected value of each deal (Dolan, 2001). As depicted in the table below, despite the potential risk of a negative return if the drug development fails in the deal with Biopart, the overall expected value of that proposition is significantly higher than Pharmacol. Pharmacol | | | Biopart | | Probability of success | 40% | | | Probability of success | 40% | | Probability of failure | 60% | | | Probability of failure |...
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...Week 7 Lab Step 1: Number of Trucks in Queue | | Question 1: For each of the four work team sizes, calculate the expected number of trucks waiting in the queue to be unloaded. Size of team | Number of trucks in queue | 2 | 3.2 | 3 | .5 | 4 | .27 | 5 | .12 | Step 2: Expected Time in Queue | | Question 2: For each of the four work team sizes, calculate the expected time in the queue; that is, the expected time that a truck has to wait in line to be unloaded. Size of team | Expected time in queue | 2 | .8 hrs | 3 | .125 hrs | 4 | .067 hrs | 5 | .030 hrs | Step 3: Immediate Unload Probability | | Question 3: For each of the four work team sizes, what is the probability that a truck cannot be unloaded immediately? Size of team | Probability that truck must wait | 2 | 80% | 3 | 50% | 4 | 40% | 5 | 30% | Step 4: Lowest-Cost Team | | Question 4: Which of the four work team sizes results in the lowest cost to Wayne? Size of team | Total cost | 2 | $268.00 | 3 | $102.00 | 4 | $96.00 | 5 | $95.32 | Step 5: Faster Forklift Rental | | Question 5: Wayne is also considering rental of a forklift to use in truck unloading. A team of only two would be needed, but the hourly cost would be $38 per hour ($28 for the workers and $10 for the forklift). The two workers could unload a truck in five minutes. Should Wayne rent the forklift? With a two-person crew and a forklift the cost will be $38 per hour. Based on the lowest cost...
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...Looking for Patterns Blaise Pascal was a French mathematician who lived during the 17th century. He is credited with creating a mechanical calculator, and he influenced the development of probability theory, economics, programming, and geometry. A pattern of numbers in the form of a triangle was named after him, although the pattern was known by other, ancient civilizations. The triangle demonstrates the inherent order of numbers and math. The exercises below challenge you to find and define patterns. Often being a good problem solver relies on one’s ability to recognize patterns and changes in patterns. • How many triangles can you find in this picture? 27 • Develop a rule to describe the number of circles in the figures below. Find the number of circles in the 20th figure, and indicate the reasoning. Figure 1 Figure Number Number of Circles 1 1 Figure 2 2 6 3 11 Figure 3 Figure 4 4 16 5 21 6 26 7 31 ...Figure 20 8 36 20 96 What is the general rule to describe how many circles are in each figure? • Find the relationship between the pyramid steps needed to build rows 6 through 10. Ro w# 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 1 1 1 0 9 4 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 3 6 12 0 7 28 8 4 21 0 6 2 1 56 12 6 25 2 5 15 35 70 12 6 21 0 4 10 20 35 56 8 4 12 0 3 6 10 15 2 1 28 3 6 4 5 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3a. Find as many relationships between the numbers in the pyramid as you can, and describe them. • • • Both sides are symmetrical You can get each number by...
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...Lu Li NetID: ll2937 HW #3 - TELOXY PART (A) - Answer Questions #1 and #2. 1. Using expected value, is it economically better to make or buy the component? Expected percent of defective of all product: Ex=0%*10%+10%*20%+20%*30%+30%*25%+40%*15%=21.5% Buy: 72*10,000=720,000 Make: 100,000+40*10,000+120*10,000*21.5%=100,000+400,000+258,000=758,000 So it’s better to buy it. 2. Strategically thinking, why might management opt for other than the most economical choice? Strategically thinking, if Teloxy decide to produce more new product, it’s a better chose to manufacture component in house. For several reasons, first, the cost of manufacture will lower than buy it when the amount of product more than 20,000 unit. Second, the experienced worker or management can reduce the percent of defective, which means less removed and repaired cost. HW #3 - TELOXY PART (B) - Answer Questions #1, #2 and #3. 1. Calculate the economic feasibility of make or buy. Ex=21.5% 12,000 units Defective: 12000*21.5%=2580 So to produce 10000 unit product, only need repair 580 unit Total cost: 150000+40*12000+120+580=699600 14,000unit Defective: 14000*21.5%=3010 So to produce 10000unit product, did not need repair. Total cost: 150000+40+14000+0=710000 2. Should the probability of defects change if we produce 18,000 units as opposed to 10,000 units? In my personal opinion, the probability of defects should change. In real life, it is reasonable to believe that more experienced...
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...1. The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise between the maximax and maximin criteria. The Hurwicz criterion is the weighted sum of the maximax and maximin. So, the answer is true. 2. The minimin criterion is optimistic. The minimin criterion is NOT applied to the profit payoff table. It is applied to the cost table. In this situation we want to minimize cost as much as possible. So, if we can do it this is optimistic criterion. 3. A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether economy is good or poor. Alternative Good Economy Poor Economy ____________________________________________________ Buy 80 -5 Rent 60 55 Lease 65 50 The maximax strategy is to Buy. You chose the Good Economy and the best strategy (80 > 60; 80 > 65) The maximin strategy is to Rent. You chose Poor Economy and the best strategy (55 > -5; 55 >50) 4. Given decision tree What is the expected value for the best decision? Round your answer to the nearest whole number. Starting with leaves: Point 4: Expected value: 3000*0.4 + (-1000)*0.6 = 600 Point 3: Two possibility 600 and 2500. The best is 2500. Point 2: Expected...
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...Pascal vs Descartes Paper Pascal’s argument is fallible because he reaches the conclusion that we should “wager” God’s existence, rather than coming up with “proof” by using deductive reasoning like Descartes provides in his argument. These early 17th century philosophers both provided writings defending the validity of the Christian religion and of God’s existence. After the Protestant Reformation of 1517, the Catholic Church’s sanctity was questioned. Different religions sprouted across Europe and citizens of Western Europe began questioning religion itself and the existence of God. Blaise Pascal and Rene Descartes each claimed to have a strong belief in Catholicism (or a denomination of), and because of this strong belief, they sought to defend the validity of the existence of God. Pascal wrote a collection of aphorisms which he started to revise into a writing he would call the “Apology of Christian Religion”. However, Pascal died before he was able to complete it. In Pascal’s Pensees (his writings were collected and organized in the 19th century and 20th century), Pascal systematically dismantles the notion that we, the people, can trust reason to validate God’s Existence. Pascal rambles on about what “we” can’t do to prove God, instead of finding his own proof of God’s existence. His approach to persuade us into believing God is to use mathematical equations and odds to reach the conclusion that it is worth it to a person to wager on God’s existence. Descartes on the other...
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...Roredine33 Example Essay The Christian Atheist It was an extremely cold and dark night, when I decided to go out and go door to door to sell some literature. It was one of those nights in which I could see the fog while I breathed. And as I was walked I could hear sirens roaring in the back ground. It seemed like a night when no one would want to be on the street, much less going door to door! Nevertheless I decided to continue my journey and went from house to house, searching for someone who would be interested in the literature that I was carrying. As I walked on the street I stood in front of a home that barely had any light inside of it. I decided whether or not I should go and knock on the door and continue working, or if I should have just called it a day and just gone home. After a moment of being in the valley of decision, I was impressed to go up to this door and see whether or not someone inside would be interested in what I had to share. As I walked up to the large door of the home, I began to knock very loudly. As I heard a TV in the background, I silently waited and hoped that someone would answer the door. I began to hear some footsteps approaching the door. All of a sudden the door opened wide, and I beheld a young teenager around my age. I then proceeded by introducing myself and telling him what I was doing. As I continued my speech, I decided to hand the man a DVD entitled “The Final Events of Bible Prophecy”. As soon as the man saw this DVD he instantly...
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...Beliefs William A. Bruno Southern New Hampshire University William.Bruno@snhu.edu Either people believe there is a God, don’t believe in God or they are on the fence about whether or not God exists. It doesn’t matter what your position because no matter where you go there will always be somebody to tell you you’re wrong for what you believe in. During the next few paragraphs I will discuss a few different philosopher’s ideas by talking about the side of the fence, if either, they fall into and their views about the other side. The three philosophers I will talk about are Blaise Pascal, W.K. Clifford, and William James and their views on the whole believing in God thing. Blaise Pascal was for the idea of believing in God. Pascal’s thought were that “having a belief in God was useful even if not supported by the available evidence (Pascal).” His theory basically stated that if “someone fully devoted their life to the ways of Christianity they would soon believe what Christians believe” (Pascal). I personally don’t like this idea because I feel that this is, basically, brainwashing yourself. The next philosopher William James had theory that was along the same line as Pascal’s. He thought if people had the options between two really appealing choices the people have the right to act as their passion decides (James, 1896).” James thought it was pointless for us to permit the fear of holding a false belief to prevent us from losing the benefits of believing what...
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...rest of eternity in hell. Where there would be no good thing since the person(s) had their good thing(s) while living. (p52) It is more prudent that individual(s) should take their chances to believe. It is in the nature of man human to be curious about many things with which there was no absolutes as how the situation would turn out. Let us then consider, withal our imperfections what the explores were able to do, they made the choice to wager and won what then can we today learn from our history? Therefore, I humbly submit to you why my views agree with Blaise Paschal. Who is the author of “The Wager” gives us some very perplexing questions that one must put a lot of time and consideration into before offering up an answer? I sincerely hope to convince you should there be any doubt or should you be on that fence swaying back and forth that I believe in a superior God my personal beliefs, go along with Blaise Pascal to show within a reasonable manner that there is a supreme God, who is incipient Omniscience, Omnipotence and Omnipresent. We are truly never alone. A God, who shows his supreme ineffable love for his creations whom...
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...Reading Pictographs (A) Answer the questions about the pictograph. Number of School Buses at Schools in Great Line School District vvvvvvv Euclid P.S. vvvvv Central P.S. vv North Central P.S. vvvvvv M.C. Escher P.S. vvv B. Pascal P.S. v = 2 buses 1. Which school has the most buses? How many? 2. Which school has the fewest buses? How many? 3. How many buses are there all together at all the schools? 4. How many more buses does North Central P.S. have than M.C. Escher P.S.? 5. If North Central P.S. added two buses, they would have the same number of buses as what other school? Math-Drills.Com Reading Pictographs (A) Answers Answer the questions about the pictograph. Number of School Buses at Schools in Great City, USA vvvvvvv Euclid P.S. vvvvv Central P.S. vv North Central P.S. vvvvvv M.C. Escher P.S. vvv B. Pascal P.S. v = 2 buses 1. Which school has the most buses? How many? B. Pascal P.S.; 14 buses 2. Which school has the fewest buses? How many? Central P.S.; 4 buses 3. How many buses are there all together at all the schools? 46 buses 4. How many more buses does North Central P.S. have than M.C. Escher P.S.? 6 more buses 5. If North Central P.S. added two buses, they would have the same number of buses as what other school? B. Pascal P.S. Math-Drills.Com...
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...QAT1 Task 5 #258453 In the given scenario, a company is considering alternatives for improving profits by either developing new products, or consolidating existing products. There are 4 separate branches that split from the 2 main branches. Develop new product: 1). Develop thoroughly: a) Good demand .47 $500,000 b) Moderate demand .38 $25,000 c) Poor demand .15 $1000 So, with the above given variables, to calculate the expected value, you multiply each probability times the corresponding payoff. Then add the results for each decision outcome. Calculations: a) .47 (500,000) = $235,000 b) .38 (25000) = $9500 c) .15 (1000) = $150 Branch 1 expected value = $244,650. 2). Develop rapidly: a) Good demand .06 $500,000 b) Moderate demand .16 $25000 c) Poor demand .78 $1000 Calculations: a) .06 (500,000) = $30000 b) .16 (25,000) = $4000 c) .78 (1,000) = $780 Branch 2 expected value = $34780 Consolidate existing product: 3). Strengthen products: a) Good demand .69 $2,000 b) Moderate demand .27 $10,000 c) Poor demand .04 $3,000 Calculations: a) .69 (2,000) = $1380 b) .27 (10,000) = $2700 c) .04 (3,000) = $120 Branch 3 expected value = $4200 4). Reap without investing: a) Good demand .32 $10,000 b) Poor demand ...
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...Blaise Pascal Report Blaise Pascal made many contributions to math, Christian philosophy, and science. Blaise Pascal was born on June 19, 1623 in Clermont-Ferrand, France. During his lifetime he worked on conic sections and geometry. Around the 1600’s, Pascal created a early version of the calculator. He is well known for his series of letters defending his faith, and his notes in Pensees. Blaise Pascal was born on June 19, 1623. He was the third child and only son to Etienne and Antoinette Pascal. His father Etienne, was a mathematician and tax collector. After his mother passed away when he was three years old, he grew closer to his two older sisters. Blaise and his family relocated to Paris, France in 1831. His father wanted to give his children an unorthodox curriculum so he taught them at home. Some sources have said that Blaise might have been homeschooled because of a illness. Etienne did not allow his son to learn math until he was 15 so he could focus on the classical subjects. Blaise’s early education focused on learning Latin and Greek. Etienne’s plan to eliminate math from Blaise’s life failed. The idea of math not being allowed made him more interested in the subject. When he was 12 he started working with geometry by himself. He used his own terms and eventually worked...
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