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British Pound

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British Pound (GBP)

Executive Summary

A nation’s currency can be affected in many ways including economic, political, social and cultural events related to particular country. The exchange rate will move positively or negatively dependent on how adversely each of these factors cause change to the currency’s spot rate. Throughout our evaluation of the Great British Pound, we were able to track and measure how each of the factors caused change in the currency’s value. Over the past four months we have seen a significant decrease in the value of the British Pound. As will be explained in this paper, many different factors caused downward pressure to be placed on the currency. Expected changes in the political structure of Britain causes some to feel unwavering about the future, especially when the current monetary and fiscal policies are not resulting in a positive outlook for the economy and especially the vale of the currency. Supply and demand for the currency will change as the currency appreciates and depreciates due to the country’s varying stages of surplus’ and deficits. These and other economic forces will be developed throughout the paper to analyze and interpret how the British Pound has changed over the first couple of months in 2013.

Historical

The pound sterling, commonly known as the pound (GBP), is the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the oldest currency still in use as it was created in the Anglo-Saxon period where it was equivalent to one pound of silver (Dawnay, Kit). Over the years, the currency has evolved. In the late 17th century it was unofficially tied to gold and officially tied to gold in the early 19th century but suspended in 1914. By 1940, the GBP was pegged to the U.S. Dollar in the Bretton Woods Agreement. It then entered a free-floating period, a period shadowing the Deutsche Mark, and then a period where it was tied to the Euro (Dawnay, Kit). Today it floats freely, but it tends to have correlation with the Euro due to the United Kingdom's economic involvement in Europe. Today it is the fourth most traded currency on the foreign exchange market, the third most held reserve currency, and it is part of the basket of currencies that calculate the International Monetary Funds special drawing rights (Dawnay, Kit).

Economic

There are five basic economic factors that affect all currencies and the British Pound is no exception. These five factors are monetary policies, price inflation, confidence, economic growth (GDP) and the balance of payments (5 Reports). The monetary policy acted out by the Bank of England (BOE) wants to ensure that stability in the currency maintains to keep the people of England confident in the market and help the economy grow (5 Reports ). If inflation increase in the home country relative to other countries the value of the home currency will depreciate in comparison. The GDP of a country in particular England will help show where it is in comparison to other countries and will allow for to predict how the currency might be altered because of it. The balance of trade is the difference in values between exports and imports (5 Reports ). As you can see through the definitions of these economic factors they mostly all are connected in one way or other. This causes a domino effect not only in the local economy but throughout the world as well. The article “the British Pound Continues Its Downward Spiral” talks a little about how the pound continues to fall. This article was written on January 28th, 2013, when the British Pound was in a little bit of a free fall. One economic that the article talks about is the monetary factor of inflation. "Mr. Carney's…willingness to consider other monetary policy targets than inflation, will fuel sterling-negative sentiment," said Kit Juckes, chief currency strategist at Societe Generale in a note clients (Fletcher, Alexandra). The article also talks about how the Bank of England should stop from doing anymore monetary easing. The British government has bought billions of pounds worth of bonds to try to help control the British Pound. Great Britain is the fifth largest trading nation in the world; Machinery and transport, manufactured goods and chemicals, and steel are Britain's largest export earners. Nearly sixty percent of British imports are finished manufactured goods, while just under three per cent are basic materials. Food, beverages and tobacco are major non-manufactured imports, whilst machinery and transport equipment accounted for just under half of all imports in 2000. Other major imports include chemicals, fuels, clothing and footwear. (wikiinvest) UK Gross Domestic Product fell 0.3% after the third-quarter at the end of 2012. As a result of this 2013 estimates will be as follows; “Gross domestic product will increase 0.6 percent this year, compared with a previous forecast of 1.2 percent, Osborne told Parliament in London as he delivered his annual budget statement today, citing the Office for Budget Responsibility’s predictions”. (Bloomberg) Keeping this in mind, along with Europe being the United Kingdom’s main exporter, exports will see continual decline. Britain exports two-fifths of its exports to Euro Zone. As crisis continually grows, exports to there are slowing down causing the pound to improve slowly from other sources. Unemployment and inflation in Britain is also negatively affecting the way the currency is moving. Beginning in January the Consumer Price Index was 2.7%, and rose to 2.8% by the end of March. Estimates are stating that the inflation rate will remain around 3% throughout the rest of 2013 which will place continual downward pressure on the pound. Conversely, the Unemployment rate increased from 7.8% to 7.9%; Britain reported an additional 20,000 jobless individuals that are 25 years or younger. (guardian.co.uk) Britain cannot afford to remain in this state of stagflation any longer without running the risk of falling into a recession for the third time since 2008. An attempt to decrease inflation is greatly needed; this will help to increase their level of imports as their current level of exports are decreasing. Consumers also need to have an increase in disposable income as the rate of unemployment continues to increase, consumers spending extra money in their perspective economies will help to stimulate growth. If all of these factors can be in place, or start to improve, Britain can hope to see the value of their currency to appreciate.
Social
One of the social factors that affect the British Pound is the increasing number of foreign students willing to study abroad in another country. The United States, Great Britain and Australia are the top 3 countries that lead the world in attracting new students to study in their country. When the students finish their time studying abroad, they might wish to stay in their host country because it may provide benefits they are unable to find in their home country; this brings additional monetary and social benefits to the host country. This not only increases the competition for domestic students, which in turn raises the schools standards, but it also brings new talented and educated individuals to boost the economy; new ideas, as well as business result from countries importing a higher educated class of people. The local economies are also affected because students pay for tuition, books, housing and other general living expenses. (wikiwealth) Expenditures per capita also affect how the currency will move. In 2011, household expenditures, on average, equated to about £484 per week. The most was spent on transport followed close behind by recreation and culture, housing, fuel and power, and food and non-alcoholic beverages. The commodities that made up the latter half of the average include: restaurants and hotels, miscellaneous goods and services, housing goods and services, clothing and footwear, communication, alcoholic drinks, tobacco and narcotics, education and lastly, health. Compared the average in 2010 of £474, the expenditures increased about £10. This could help to increase the local economy by having each household spending more money; more money being spent in the country help to stimulate the economy (http://www.ons.gov.uk).

Political

From a political standpoint, the British pound is monitored by the United Kingdom government and is also used in two small territories off the coast of southern England. (“What countries accept Great British Pounds?”) The United Kingdom of Great Britain is established as a constitutional monarchy. The executive power of the country is exercised by the government drawn from Parliament and is headed by the Prime Minister, David Cameron. Cameron has been the head of the government in the United Kingdom since May of 2010. (“What is the British Pound (GBP)?”) The economic policies that Cameron has established are starting to lack promise as the pound is depreciating rapidly and has depreciated as much as 7% against the dollar by March 20, 2013. The first two months of this year have been the worst opening months of the year since 1985 for the British Pound against the dollar. It has also so far been the worst performing currency after the Yen, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The country was deprived of their top credit rating at Moody’s Investors Service on February 22. This creates a slippery slope for Great Britain as a worse credit rating could cause their currency to depreciate even further. (Vina, and Meakin)
Despite the unpromising outlook for the British Pound, Cameron is relying on the Bank of England to try to revive the economy and its currency. He believes in the bank as they have bought 375 billion pounds of government bonds since March of 2009 and have kept their interest rate at a record low of .5%. George Osborne, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, spoke about how the Bank of England will be taken over in July of 2013 by Mark Carney and said that he will give policy makers more flexibility to try to meet a 2% inflation rate. Osborne also said that so far his growth forecast in the United Kingdom for 2013 has been cut in half to 0.6 percent. (Vina, and Meakin)
Statistical

Conclusion

Works Cited
"5 Reports That Affect The British Pound." 5 Reports That Affect The British Pound. N.p., n.d.
Web. 18 Apr. 2013.
<http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/11/five-reports-affect-the-pound.asp>.
Fletcher, Alexandra, and Tom Murphy. "British Pound Continues Its Downward Spiral." Wall
Street Journal. N.p., 29 Jan. 2013. Web. 18 Apr. 2013. <http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323644904578270172796741186.html>.
Inman, Phillip. "UK Unemployment Rise Adds to Pressure on Osborne's Austerity Strategy."The Guardian. Guardian News and Media, 17 Apr. 2013. Web. 23 Apr. 2013. <http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/apr/17/uk-unemployment-rise-pressure-osborne-austerity>.
"Osborne Says 2013 U.K. Growth Forecast Cut in Half." Bloomberg. N.p., n.d. Web. 23
Apr. 2013. <http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-20/osborne-says-2013-gdp-forecast-cut-in-half-cites-europe-risks.html>.
"Welcome to the Office for National Statistics." ONS Home. N.p., n.d. Web. 18 Apr. 2013.
<http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/index.html>.
"What Countries Accept Great British Pounds?." British Pound Sterling. N.p.. Web. 21 April
2013. <http://www.britishpoundsterling.co.uk/great_british_pounds.html>.
"What is the British pound (GBP)?." GoCurrency.com. N.p.. Web. 22 Apr 2013.
<http://www.gocurrency.com/countries/united_kingdom>.
"WikiWealth." UK (GBP, Pound Sterling) Economic & Currency Analysis -. N.p., n.d. Web. 18
Apr. 2013. <http://www.wikiwealth.com/country:uk>.
Vina, Gonzalo, and Lucy Meakin. "Cameron Evokes Black Wednesday as Pound Weakens 7%:
U.K. Credit."Bloomberg. N.p., 20 Mar 2013. Web. 22 Apr 2013.
<http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-20/cameron-s-weakening-pound-shows-auster
ity-doubts-u-k-credit.html>.

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