...Case 2: CHINESE MERCANTILISM Text 1. Chinese New Year China has become a major financial and trade power. But it doesn’t act like other big economies. Instead, it follows a mercantilist policy, keeping its trade surplus artificially high. And in today’s depressed world, that policy is, to put it bluntly, predatory. Here’s how it works: Unlike the dollar, the euro or the yen, whose values fluctuate freely, China’s currency is pegged by official policy at about 6.8 yuan to the dollar. At this exchange rate, Chinese manufacturing has a large cost advantage over its rivals, leading to huge trade surpluses. Under normal circumstances, the inflow of dollars from those surpluses would push up the value of China’s currency, unless it was offset by private investors heading the other way. And private investors are trying to get into China, not out of it. But China’s government restricts capital inflows, even as it buys up dollars and parks them abroad, adding to a $2 trillion-plus hoard of foreign exchange reserves. This policy is good for China’s export-oriented state-industrial complex, not so good for Chinese consumers. But what about the rest of us? In the past, China’s accumulation of foreign reserves, many of which were invested in American bonds, was arguably doing us a favor by keeping interest rates low — although what we did with those low interest rates was mainly to inflate a housing bubble. But right now the world is awash in cheap money, looking for someplace to...
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...six times in 2007 and how those moves might achieve its goals. It is clear that China’s economy has achieved remarkable development since 2006 though the global economy was not optimistic, whereas, the high rate of development brought some unexpected effects as well. As a consequence, China government implemented a series of policies to alleviate the adverse effects, including raising interest rates. This essay will firstly examine economic situation of China in 2007, and then discuss interest rate as a policy tool and its application. In addition, it will also explain whether raising interest rates were justified by the economic conditions then. Finally, it will analyze how interest rates can affect the economy and whether raising interest rates might work in the context of China’s economy in 2007. To simplify the problem, this essay will mainly focus on raising interest rates and omit or take little account for other monetary policies. In general, China’s economy kept increasing rapidly. GDP increased by 11.4% in 2007 (World Bank Office Beijing, January, 2008), and it was far higher than the world average rate. Among it, 40% of GDP relied on export market (King, 2007). However, there were some points to be noticed. Primarily, China’s economy in 2006 had profound effects on that in 2007. Although investments were cooled by the contractionary policy in the 4th quarter of 2006, the trade surplus compensated the adverse effects, and the foreign exchange reserves increased as...
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...Discussion Papers 15 • 2011 John Knight and Wei Wang China's macroeconomic imbalances: Causes and consequences Bank of Finland, BOFIT Institute for Economies in Transition BOFIT Discussion Papers Editor-in-Chief Laura Solanko BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2011 20.06.2011 John Knight and Wei Wang: China's macroeconomic imbalances: Causes and consequences ISBN 978-952-462-711-5 ISSN 1456-5889 (online) This paper can be downloaded without charge from http://www.bof.fi/bofit. Suomen Pankki Helsinki 2011 BOFIT- Institute for Economies in Transition Bank of Finland BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/ 2011 Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................ iii Tiivistelmä ........................................................................................................................... iv 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 1 2. China’s macroeconomic imbalances ................................................................................. 2 3. China’s external imbalance ............................................................................................. 14 4. Reviewing the export surplus .......................................................................................... 22 5. The external surplus and foreign exchange reserves ......................
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...Quiz 2 Ana Lia Barragán Echenique The effects of an undervalued currency Undervaluation vs. Depreciation Undervaluation and depreciation are often confused; however, they have two very different meanings. Depreciation is defined as the increase or decrease of a currency’s price, in terms of another currency. This happens in the free market due to forces of supply and demand. (Baumol and Blinder). To exemplify this phenomenon, let’s pretend that the supply of US-dollars increases or demand for this currency decreases. The result would be the depreciation of the US-dollar in terms of other currencies like the Euro or the Renminbi. In contrast, the low value of a currency because of undervaluation does not happen because of market forces. This is due to the active manipulation of a currency and is act of government intervention. As a consequence the currency has a value underneath its official exchange rate (Baumol and Blinder). The consequence of undervaluation: Inflation Even though it is important to distinguish between both terms, the effects caused by depreciation help understand the effects caused by undervaluation. Depreciation reduces the value of a currency in relation to another. In our example, a weaker US-dollar leads to cheaper exports. The aggregate demand for these products will increase, because consumers everywhere will buy more of the less expensive products. This is a direct application of the law of demand (Baumol and Blinder). American exports would experience...
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...TO: FROM: RE: China’s Renminbi Valuation Discussion The following memo provides a summary of the basic discussion of the valuation of China’s Renminbi, the tumultuous situation surrounding global discussion regarding its valuation, and what appreciation of the Renminbi might mean for the global economy. This analysis is based primarily upon the Fung & Wong article, “China’s Renminbi: ‘Our Currency, Your Problem’?”. Valuation Controls Placed Upon the Renminbi Over the past couple decades China has maintained a high level of economic growth rate of approximately 9% per year. Recently, many countries began questioning the valuation of China’s currency, the Renminbi, and China’s exchange rate policies. These other countries pointed to China’s emergence as the third largest exporter of goods and the accumulation of $1.2 trillion (US$) in foreign currency reserves. In its defense, China asserted that the Renminbi was not undervalued and that its exchange rate policies helped maintain a stable economic environment. It also stated that countries running large trade and budget deficits, specifically with China, like the US, were attempting to use China as a scapegoat rather than the weaknesses of their own economies. Is the Renminbi Undervalued? It appears to me that the Renminbi is likely undervalued. Pegging the currency primarily to the United States Dollar (USD), and eventually to a basket of currencies dominated by the USD, may have created stability in the Chinese...
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...Can institutional reform provide a sufficient explanation for China’s rapid economic development over the past three decades? What needs to happen in order for growth and development to be maintained in the future? The People’s Republic of China is the world’s fastest growing economy following the economic and institutional reforms from 1978 which signaled the beginning of an economy in transition. This shift from a centrally planned system to a market oriented economy resulted in an overall improvement in China’s living standards and productivity. Since then, China has extensively engaged in a range of international organisations and agreements, such as, the participation in the World Trading Organisations, as well as increasing their level of foreign trade and investment, formation of rural enterprises and private businesses, financial flows and globalisation. These are the fundamental reasons for China’s rapid economic growth over the last three decades. There are various definitions of economic growth, however, according to WebFinance (2012) economic growth is referred to the “increase in a country's productive capacity, as measured by comparing gross national product (GNP) in a year with the GNP in the previous year”. Prior to 1978, China’s average annual growth was at a low 6% and with negative declines of up to -27% in 1961. Since the reforms, GNP has been positive and steadily increasing with fewer ups and downs (Hu and Khan, 1997). The Chinese economy has been averaging...
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...independence and self reliance and then later started economic and trade exchanges with foreign countries. Initially foreign trade development was relatively slow because of international politics. Before 1978 china’s trade was conducted under system of state trading where approximately a dozen foreign trade corporations monopolised all foreign trade. under this central plan regime imports were not encouraged much and also exports were allowed only to pay for the imports. its share of world trade has risen three times and its expected that will get tripled by 2020. But since the last 20 years china has witnessed a drastic change in its trade policies and patterns and china has expanded itself tremendously. many foreign trade corporations and some retain rights on some of the products. Licenses and quotas in agriculture and food products, machinery and electronics. China has recently become a trading nation and its tremendous potential has attracted developed and newly emerging economies which became evident when china joined WTO in 2000. China’s trade strategy has changed over the years, from primary to manufacturing in 1980’s and 90’s was the decade of mechanical and electronic products. This is the century of high tech IT products rapidly grabbing the market and which are highly in demand , also along with state enterprise private enterprise also engaging in foreign trade. From 80’s to 21st century china’s processing trade has flourished and in this process foreign enterprises have...
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...billion USD | Current Account Deficit | 59.8 billion USD | Inflation | 7.65% | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 3.24 trillion USD | GDP Growth Rate: * GDP (purchasing power parity) of china is $11.3 trillion second largest in the world. * Most of the GDP is comprised of the exports. China is an export based economy. * GDP of China rose rapidly over past 33 years, Chinese households do not appear to have shared equally in that growth. * The Growth rate of GDP is averaged at 10% from past 5 years. Even during recession periods china GDP continuously grew at an average rate of 9%. There is a serious concern in the distribution of china’s GDP in which household expenditure and private consumption is low. * Falling share of private consumption and disposable income relative to GDP is largely caused by two main factors: China’s banking policies and the lack of an adequate social safety net. Chinese households put a large share of their savings in domestic banks. * The Chinese government sets the interest rate on deposits. Often this rate is below the rate of inflation, which lowers household income. Social safety nets such as pensions, healthcare benefits are low in China because of which savings are more in that country, which results in poor spending. * Proper measures in increasing the household expenditure will make china as more independent....
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...system worked in governing a country. Inother words, the purposes of working in China are to contribute to the nation and alsoto the government as the government control on all activities in the country.ii.Stability of Government. The stability of the China government is quite moderate and stable because theadministration of the government are not publicize to the public either through thepress or on the internet. So, the degree of the citizen involvement in the politics is lowbecause of the heavy restrictions impose by the government. However, the policiesimpose and the law regulations are quite effective in terms of economy where China isone of the leading countries in the world. In the recent years (2001), China has joinedthe World Trade Organization and results rapid growth in industrial and manufacturingsectors because of the cheap labor in China. But still problems such as managingenvironmental degradation, demographic pressure and the extreme immigration fromrural to urban area must be faced by the government.iii.Business FreedomThe business freedom in China is quite tight because of the regulation impose by thegovernment where they restrict businesses from other countries coming in. But recently,China government open their gate to the outside world to set up business in their country.It takes 37 days to start anew business in China compared to the worldaverage 38 days. While it takes 1.7 years from the filling for...
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...Relationship between the Savings Rate and Economic Growth of China By: Muhammad Saddam Hossain Institute of Business Administration, Jahangirnagar University Submitted to: Dr. Shuddhasattwa Rafiq Associate Professor, Institute of Business Administration, Jahangirnagar University Submitted by: Muhammad Saddam Hossain Batch: 21st Class ID: 1565 Date of Submission: June 11, 2013 Institute of Business Administration, Jahangirnagar University 1 Table of Contents: Contents 1. Introduction 2. Savings Rate 3. China’s High Savings Rates 4. How to calculate Savings Rate a. Private saving b. Public saving c. National Saving d. Savings Rate 5. China’s Comparative Savings Rate 6. Relationship between the saving rate and economic growth 7. Savings Rate Vs Economic Growth of China 8. Conclusion Page 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 9 Illustrations: Contents Figure 1: National Saving Rate by Region Figure 2: Relation Between savings rate and Growth Figure 3: Saving and Investment Rate of China Table 1: National Reserves by Countries Page 5 6 7 8 2 Introduction: A savings rate is refers to the percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) savings by households in a country. It indicates the financial state and growth of the country, as household saving is the main source of government borrowing to fund public services. It varies among countries and is influenced by various factors such as retirement age, borrowing constraints, income distribution over lifetime...
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...traditionally make predictions about the year ahead. Mine concerns international economics: I predict that 2010 will be the year of China. And not in a good way. China has become a major financial and trade power. But it doesn’t act like other big economies. Instead, it follows a mercantilist policy, keeping its trade surplus artificially high. And in today’s depressed world, that policy is, to put it bluntly, predatory. Here’s how it works: Unlike the dollar, the euro or the yen, whose values fluctuate freely, China’s currency is pegged by official policy at about 6.8 yuan to the dollar. At this exchange rate, Chinese manufacturing has a large cost advantage over its rivals, leading to huge trade surpluses. Under normal circumstances, the inflow of dollars from those surpluses would push up the value of China’s currency, unless it was offset by private investors heading the other way. And private investors are trying to get into China, not out of it. But China’s government restricts capital inflows, even as it buys up dollars and parks them abroad, adding to a $2 trillion-plus hoard of foreign exchange reserves. This policy is good for China’s export-oriented state-industrial complex, not so good for Chinese consumers. But what about the rest of us? In the past, China’s accumulation of foreign reserves, many of which were invested in American bonds, was arguably doing us a favor by keeping interest rates low — although what we did with those low interest rates was...
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...the third consecutive month of increases in Chinese exports and the fastest growth in three years. Orders from the United States, the European Union and Japan accounted for almost half of the growth, after demand from emerging markets rose in the previous two months. Chinese imports increased 45 percent over last year, led by crude oil, after factories stepped up production. Some economists said the figures indicated China’s recovery was well under way. Tao Wang, head of China research for UBS Securities, predicted that Chinese exports would rebound to the level of 2008, before China was hurt by the global financial crisis. Ms. Wang and others suggested that the robust growth could increase pressure on China to let its currency, the renminbi, appreciate against the dollar. Western governments contend that pegging the renminbi to the dollar keeps Chinese exports artificially cheap and depresses competing economies. The Chinese prime minister, Wen Jiabao, said last week that exchange rates would remain “basically stable” for now. Chen Deming, China’s commerce minister, said in late December that the...
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...debt for the United States was at a staggering $17,752,082,587,972.00, this is almost eighteen trillion dollars. With foreign governments and investors holding roughly half of it and China’s holds the largest portion thereof at $1.268 trillion, which is only slightly down from $1.279 trillion in 2013. Chinas investment in the US is a smart move on their part because doing so keeps the value of the dollar relatively high in comparison to the Renminbi-Yuan. Using this very simple it would make China’s exports to the US appear more affordable. This fundamentally helps, China’s the trade driven economy grow. According to the latest numbers provided they the United States Census Bureau as of July 2014 U.S. trade in goods with China are as follows the US exports approximately $9,288,200 and China imports $40,151,300 leaving a trade deficit of roughly $30,863,000 and the current total for the year being an incredible $186,079,900. In an article written for the Wall Street Journal, in September 2014 titled China's Trade Surplus Hits New High Trade Surplus Widened to Record of $49.8 Billion the article bolsters the fact that China's trade surplus hit a record high in August for the second month in a row (Magnier,Silk). Currency manipulation is the most significant reason there is currently a trade deficit between the US and China. The numbers would reflect that by far China is the largest manipulator of US currency. An article...
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...1. Intro In recent years, discussions between the governments of China and the United States have centered on each country’s external imbalances, large trade surpluses for China and deficits for the United States, and the need for structural reforms to achieve more sustainable patterns of growth in future years. This paper argues that reductions in external imbalances suggest that some restructuring has occurred. However, a more detailed examination of economic developments within each country offers less basis for optimism. China has experienced a large appreciation of its real exchange rate and an external surplus less than half that of the years preceding the global recession. However, the domestic counterpart has been even-higher rates of investment as opposed to lower rates of saving and a more sustainable growth of public and private consumption. For the United States, a reduction in the external deficit has been associated with an extreme contraction of domestic investment rather than increased saving. It is noteworthy that the economic trade between the two countries has become even more unbalanced than in the years before the recession, and the bilateral deficit now accounts for two-thirds of the U.S. global current account deficit. The concluding section argues that further reduction in the trade deficit through the expansion of U.S. exporting capabilities is critical to its future performance. The section discusses policy changes that would slow the process of...
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...The development of China-ASEAN trade and economic relations has of great significance, not only for both sides but also for the whole East-Asia region. This paper to discuss the latter that is regional implications of 15 years’ development of China-ASEAN trade and economic relations and find the problem and challenge in China-ASEAN trade relations, as well as provide some further consideration for both sides’ trade and economic relations. Introduction Since the economic reforms and open-door policy of1978-79, China's economy has been growing rapidly and more particularly since 1990 when growth has averaged 10% a year. China's external trade has been growing at an even faster rate of 15% a year since 1990, and it has also annually drawing from the lessons of the financial contagion of 1997. Economic links between ASEAN and China through trade, investments and tourism have prospered throughout the 1990s. Perhaps, equally important, China's maintenance of the value of the renminbi (RMB) during the economic crisis of 1997, served as a regional anchor preventing what could possibly have been successive rounds of competitive devaluations. This clearly prevented the crisis from becoming more acute for ASEAN countries and yet this put China’s own exports at risk, as much cheaper goods from the crisis-plagued region competed with Chinese goods. Another important milestone that contributed to the smooth relationship between China and ASEAN is China’s entry into the WTO. China has...
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