...DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES, NIT TRICHY AN ASSIGNMENT ON TIME SERIES ANALYSIS PLANNING AND CONTROL OF OPERATONS FAWAZ MOHAMED KUTTY 215112035 MBA Ist YEAR TIME SERIES ANALYSIS A time series may be defined as a set of values of a variable collected and recorded in a chronological order of the time intervals. Time series is used by statisticians to describe the flow of economic activity. In short time series refers to the data depending on time. It refers to a set of observations concerning any activity against different periods of time. The duration of the time period may be hourly, daily, weekly, monthly or yearly. According to Morris Hamburg “A time series is a set of statistical observations arranged in chronological order”. Therefore time series is also called historical data or historical series. The study of movement of quantitative data through time is referred to as ‘time series analysis’. Time series is of great importance to the planners of economic development and economists. The success of planning depends upon making accurate forecasts of future conditions of economy. It enables the economists to foresee what is likely to come and to analyze the repercussions of past behavior. The analysis of time series enables us to understand the past behavior or performance. Time series analysis can be used to know how the data changes over time and find out probable reasons for such change. UTILITY OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS Analysis of time series is of relevance...
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...Romanian Reports in Physics, Vol. 56, No. 2, P. 141-169, 2004 SOLAR FLARE CYCLES G. MARIª1, M. D. POPESCU1, 2 1Astronomical Institute of the Romanian Academy Str. Cutitul de Argint nr. 5, RO-752121, Bucharest, Romania gmaris@aira.astro.ro 2 Armagh Observatory College Hill, Armagh, BT61 9DG, N. Ireland mdp@star.arm.ac.uk (Received May 30, 2003) Abstract. We present a review of different solar flare periodicity intervals. Our analysis includes a statistical investigation of flare occurrence and N hemispheric distribution over the last three 11-yr -S solar cycles (SCs 21-23, correspondin g to the period 1976-2001). Moreover, we try to estimate if there is any connection between the flare activity and the strength of solar cycles. For that purpose, we studied not only the number of flares occurring monthly and annually, but we also used two indices that estimate the energy emitted by flares registered in the optical Hα line, as well as in the soft X -ray 1-8 Å band. The strange behaviour of SC 22 descending phase, with short but intense increments in flare activity, having a high degree of N-S asymmetry, could be the cause of the "abnormal" appearance of SC 23. The new magnetic dipole begins to lose part of its energy even during the descending phase of SC 22, so that the activity of SC 23 proves to be below the predicted values. Key words: Sun − solar flares – solar activity cycles − N-S asymmetry. INTRODUCTION Solar flares are wonderfully complex phenomena, seen as...
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...arXiv:math.DG/0207039 v1 3 Jul 2002 Exterior Differential Systems and Euler-Lagrange Partial Differential Equations Robert Bryant Phillip Griffiths July 3, 2002 Daniel Grossman ii Contents Preface Introduction 1 Lagrangians and Poincar´-Cartan Forms e 1.1 Lagrangians and Contact Geometry . . . . . . . . . 1.2 The Euler-Lagrange System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.1 Variation of a Legendre Submanifold . . . . . 1.2.2 Calculation of the Euler-Lagrange System . . 1.2.3 The Inverse Problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 Noether’s Theorem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 Hypersurfaces in Euclidean Space . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4.1 The Contact Manifold over En+1 . . . . . . . 1.4.2 Euclidean-invariant Euler-Lagrange Systems . 1.4.3 Conservation Laws for Minimal Hypersurfaces 2 The 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 Geometry of Poincar´-Cartan Forms e The Equivalence Problem for n = 2 . . . . . . . Neo-Classical Poincar´-Cartan Forms . . . . . . e Digression on Affine Geometry of Hypersurfaces The Equivalence Problem for n ≥ 3 . . . . . . . The Prescribed Mean Curvature System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v vii 1 1 7 7 8 10 14 21 21 24 27 37...
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...Exploring My Artist Name ideas I searched up on Google, girl’s names and I looked through the list and my top five were: First name Trixie Melissa Kenzie Myra Taliyah Last Name Kelly Kate Hayley Perry Lorraine v Name ideas I searched up on Google, girl’s names and I looked through the list and my top five were: First name Trixie Melissa Kenzie Myra Taliyah Last Name Kelly Kate Hayley Perry Lorraine v I chose Melissa because it fits in the genre pop music and it is a British name because my artist is from Britain. I thought that all the other names that I chose didn’t fit in pop music....
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...I. Show us an activity you enjoy doing. Tell us how you think it contributes to your personal and professional development I began training and coaching beach volley last year. The idea came into my mind while I was watching the beach volley tournament of my girlfriend job and many participants were complaining about the different level of the teams. Once back home I explained my idea to my girlfriend which is a volley professional and introduced me to the sport and she bought it. The reason why I have selected this activity is because it contributes to strengthen the relationship with my girlfriend, sharing and enjoying together an important portion of my few spare times, since my job is very time consuming being “up in the air all the time”. I therefore killed two birds with one stone, keeping my girlfriend happy without sacrificing my preferred hobby: playing sport. Beach Volley, as any other sport, is good for both physical and mental health. It makes my little heart muscle big and strong and it helps me get rid of toxins from the body. When I am on the beach playing with the “guys” I feel relaxed and, looking at the immensity of the Mediterranean Sea I am able to forget the daily difficulties and recharge my battery. Furthermore, it helps me on my self-awareness development. During this period when the current crisis is oppressing specific sector like the public research, I feel the need to collaborate in activities that contribute to the improvement of some...
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...Corrected sunspot history suggests climate change not due to natural solar trends In a recent study by The International Astronomical Union (IAU), a long time discrepancy between two different models dealing with climate change and its direct correlation to solar activity or flares has been found to be somewhat inconclusive now after one of the longest going scientific experiments on the subject. Based on the 70 plus year period of the Maunder Minimum which has shown through data that earth’s harsh winters coincided with a higher frequency of sunspots has been believed to been a large factor in what we today believe has to do with climate change. The Maunder Minimum is a measurement of the suns activities between the years of 1645 and 1715. Basically, some scientists have believed that global warming has been connected to this effect and the fact that since this time, solar activity has increased and especially in the 20th century. According to EScienceNews.com, ‘The two methods of counting the sunspot number -- the Wolf Sunspot Number and the Group Sunspot Number [2] -- indicated significantly different levels of solar activity before about 1885 and also around 1945. With these discrepancies now eliminated, there is no longer any substantial difference between the two historical records’. These new findings were disclosed on August 10th at the IAU XXIX General Assembly in Honolulu, Hawaii. Also according to the same article, ‘The new correction of the sunspot number, called...
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...0.93% argon, 0.038% carbon dioxide, and small amounts of other gases. Air also contains a variable amount of water vapor, on average around 1%. The atmosphere becomes thinner and thinner with increasing altitude, with no definite boundary between the atmosphere and outer space. Structure of the atmosphere Principal layers of the atmosphere The atmosphere of the Earth may be divided into several distinct layers, as the following figure indicates. [pic] Troposphere The troposphere is where all weather takes place. The air pressure at the top of the troposphere is only 10% of that at sea level (0.1 atmospheres).The troposphere begins at the surface and extends to between 7 km at the poles and 17 km at the equator, with some variation due to weather. The troposphere is mostly heated by transfer of energy from the surface, so on average the lowest part of the troposphere is warmest and temperature decreases with altitude. The troposphere contains roughly 80% of the mass of the atmosphere. The tropopause is the boundary between the troposphere and stratosphere. Stratosphere Above the troposphere is the stratosphere, where air flow is mostly horizontal. The stratosphere extends from the tropopause to about 51 km Temperature increases with height, which restricts turbulence and mixing. The stratopause, which is the boundary between the stratosphere and mesosphere, typically is at 50 to 55 km. Mesosphere The mesosphere extends from the stratopause to 80–85 km...
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...Explain how different factors can influence the variations in global biodiversity (10 marks) The biodiversity of the planet Earth is the total variability of life forms. There are around 1.9 million extant species. There are many factors that can influence the variations in global biodiversity which can be either physical or human. The size of an area heavily decides the variations in biodiversity. The bigger the area, the larger the biodiversity, as large continuous biomes can support a wider range of species and extensive boundaries can encourage migration. Also, a larger area is more susceptible to a variety in climate, which can support a variation in species. A good example of this factor taking place is the Amazon Rainforest. This vast area of 5,500,000 sq.km located in the Amazon Basin of South America has the largest collection of animal and plant species in the world, as wet tropical forests are the most species-rich biome. It is home to 10% of the world’s known biodiversity. History and age shows that older and least disturbed ecosystems, is where there is generally higher biodiversity, especially in the tropics, where there are few physical constraints on productivity. Older ecosystems have a greater biodiversity as there is a longer time period for new species to evolve. Not only for new species, but also for migratory species such as birds. Disturbed ecosystems, where deforestation and land reclamation occurs, decreases biodiversity by destroying habitats and...
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...Climate change From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia For current and future climatological effects of human influences, see global warming. For the study of past climate change, see paleoclimatology. For temperatures on the longest time scales, see geologic temperature record. [pic] |Atmospheric sciences | |[pic] | |Aerology | |Atmospheric physics | |Atmospheric dynamics (category) | |Atmospheric chemistry (category) | |Meteorology | |Weather (category) · (portal) | |Tropical cyclone (category) | |Climatology | |Climate (category) | |Climate change (category) | |Global warming (category) · (portal) | |v · d · e | Climate change is a long-term change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in average weather conditions or the distribution of events around that average (e.g., more or fewer extreme weather events). Climate change may be limited to a specific region or may occur across the whole Earth. |Contents ...
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...Biodiversity in the Boreal Forest • Biodiversity can be defined as the variation of life within a biome or ecosystem. Unfortunately, Biodiversity around the world is at risk due to human interference and climate change. However changes within these forest and/or ocean ecosystems also impact the human population, as we depend on these crucial bionetworks for our very own existence. • The Boreal forest is a band of forest that stretches across the northern hemisphere, which includes the following countries: Canada, Russia, United States and the northern countries of Europe such as Sweden, Norway etc… (Green displays the areas where the Boreal forest is situated) • Within Canada, the Boreal forest region covers more than 290 million hectares. •This forest is primarily dominated by coniferous trees, namely: Jack Pine, Balsam Fir, Red Pine, White Pine, Black Spruce, White Spruce, Tamarack, Paper Birch, Eastern White Cedar, etc… • The leading cause of most threats upon ecosystem biodiversity is climate change; such is the case in Canada’s the Boreal forest. • Climate change also has an effect on the number of forest fires. • Invasive alien species are also a huge factor in destroying biodiversity in the Canadian Boreal forest. • The Boreal forest is the largest intact forest and wetland ecosystem remaining on earth. • One of, and perhaps the biggest threat to biodiversity in the Boreal Forest is Human infringement. • In summation the best way to preserve the Canadian...
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...Ethics test 3 Study Guide CH.7 Importance of finance & ethics- Pg. 233 Definition of Valuation- Pg. 234- A powerful tool in weighing options. The summarization of entire future scenarios into a single number that can help simplify complex decisions. Standards of accounting- Pg. 245 Strategies for stakeholders in regards to finance- Changing the reporting or classification for specific purpose/stakeholder. Making operational decisions based on their impact to financial statements. Manipulating revenue or expenses with short term focus. Making decisions because everyone else does it in your industry. Reversibility test- Do unto others what you would have them do to you. Publicity test- A persons actions manifest essential elements of his or her character. Sarbanes Oxley- Created the public company accounting oversight board PCAOB. Five member board has the authority to set auditing, quality control, and ethical standards. Inspect accounting firms’ audit operations, and investigate and impose sanctions for violations. Ch. 8 5 phases according to B.W Tuckman in regards to teams- Forming, Storming, Norming, Performing, Adjourning. General idea of management- A view of the individual, Hierarchy and managing, groups, the enterprise. Managing is about people. 5 factors of individuals & relationships to corporation- Motivation, relationships with authority, role of gender in relationships, psychological contract in workplace, groups and...
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...on the object itself. It is a concept of relative to the public concern. For instance the water security has been discussed in decades. With time pass by, the situation is different over time with the variation of many factors. The population growth directly requires extra amount of consideration of water issue. The issue relates to the population growth and migration movement. For example, Australia’s population growth is caused by the vastly increased migration, and up to recent years the study showed that the water consumption largely climbed up raised many voices on saving water. The facts that were happening showed strong correlation. Climate change over the years that has potentially impact on the usable of water. Global warming which actually that has been debated over a few years. There are voices that there have been many discussions in this topic that consider this fact are because of human activity or nature process. Al Gore convinced us in his president election speech by an inconvenient truth that the truth is that it is getting hotter and hotter. Whatever the result is, an increased concern has arisen between urbanization, salinity, and upstream pollution. In advance, Pacific Institute released that the regional impacts will vary and the potential of global climate change will alter agricultural productivity, freshwater availability and quality, access to vital minerals, coastal and island flooding and so on. These consequences will highly thus threats to security...
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...Urbana area. * Sangamon River CHAPTER 6, 11, 12, 14 * Flood probability is constant over time while risk of future eq is very low right after major eq and then will increase slowly as pressure builds CLIMATE CHANGE Climate- Long term average of daily weather conditions. Extremes * Early Earth = Very Warm * End of Paleozoic = Very Cold * End of Mesozoic = Very Cold * End of Ceonzoic = climate oscillations from very cold to very ward Importance of Studying Climate Change A.) Effect on sea level- * If current glaciers were to melt, that water would drain into oceans and cause sea levels to rise (result in flooding) Alternatively if glaciers were to become much larger, water from oceans gets transferred to ice on leand and reduces sea level B.) Large Change in Climate- * If significant global warming occurs, some areas will become much drier (others wetter) causing deserts and also possibly worse severe weather and greater disease. If glaciers advance over large areas, it will force some people to migrate C.) Glaciers’ effect on landscapes/floods- * formed great lakes, flattens landscapes in other areas, rich soil of Midwest due to deposition of glacial debris. Can cause catastrophic floods. D.) Predict Future Climate- * Understand geologic past to help predict future (Inverse uniformitarianism) * Gas by abundance * Nitrogen, Oxygen, Argon, Carbon Dioxide, Others * All objects emit e-m radiation, nature...
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...AMS Climate Studies Student Pre-Test 1. Which heat-trapping (greenhouse) gas has the greatest concentration in the atmosphere? d. water vapor 2. All of the following processes release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere EXCEPT __________. c. photosynthesis by green plants on land and algae in water 3. Perturbations in the radiative forcings of climate include all of the following EXCEPT __________. c. changes in the flow of infrared radiation from Earth to space 4. The radiation emitted by the Earth system peaks in the __________ portion of the electromagnetic spectrum. a. infrared 5. Contributors to the IPCC assessment reports include more than 2000 scientists from __________. c. over 150 nations 6. What is the ultimate source of energy driving Earth’s climate system? d. the Sun 7. The changing seasons on Earth are caused by __________. a. the tilt of the Earth on its axis relative to the plane of its orbit around the Sun. 8. The warmest climates on Earth are located near the tropics because this region __________. a. is much closer to the Sun 9. Which one of the following surfaces has the highest albedo for visible solar radiation? a. ocean water 10. The major reason for the upward trend in atmospheric carbon dioxide since the mid-1800s is __________. b. the burning of fossil fuels 11. Heat is transported from the Earth's surface into the troposphere via __________. d. All of the above are correct. 12. Viewed from above in the...
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...Cameroon is an interesting country because of its culture, its climate, and its crops. In Cameroon, culture is diverse and its helps to appreciate family values. It is also a mean of the nation. The climate is diversified, and that is advantageous for the plants. Moreover, crops farming have a variety of plants, and benefit the economy of the country. Culture in Cameroon derivates from the behavioral patterns of people, their belief systems, their principles of live, and their living condition. The interesting point is that people settled in different community according to the language they used for communication. For instance, Bamileke, Bassa, Batti,and Haoussa are some tribe where each can be identify because culture gives them a character of their own. Even though each tribe has different way to dress and speak, it has in common the belief in extended family. Living together helps to reduce stress amount people by organizing “tontine”. The goal of the ‘tontine” is to meet all together in someone’s house, and during the meeting, one person randomly selected during the meeting become beneficiary. In addition, according to the culture, people have to meet together to assist a person in moment of happiness or sadness. Culture is a wealth for the nation because of its diverse forms of art that keeps our history alive in the National museum. By doing so, our culture is kept from generation to generation, and people learned more about our tradition by visiting the museum. Moreover...
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