Collapse Informatics: Response Paper •

Collapse Informatics: Augmenting the Sustainability & ICT4D Discourse in HCI (Tomlinson et al., 2012)

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Looking Past Yesterday’s Tomorrow: Using Future Studies Methods to Extend the Research Horizon (Mankoff et al., 2013)

Both papers are dealing with future scenarios and stressing the likelyhood of a collapse if humanity proceeds its current way of living. The papers provide starting points to investigate in the preparation for humanity if such an event will come true. While the paper by Tomlinson et al. (2012) is introducing a completely new notion for studying, designing and devloping sociotechnical systems in the abundant present for use in a future of scarcity, the second paper by Mankoff et al. (2013) presents methods that can support the analysis of long-­‐ term trends, support the identification of new research areas and guide design and evaluation.

Research in the field of interactive computing often lacks evidence of systematic thinking about the long-­‐term impacts of current trends. Both papers are adressing this issue, focusing especially on the long-­‐term effects and considering long term scenarios of global change. This is particularly what the notion ‘Collapse Informatics’ dinstinguishes from ICT4D and crisis informatics -­‐ by taking a longer and broader view. However, there is very little direct guidance in the HCI literature for how to envision a future or, more importantly, forecast multiple futures and critique implications for creating technologies that will be relevant a decade or more from now.

Mankoff et al. (2013) are discussing several future studies methods to predict a not observable or measurable future. These methods can be broken up into four main groups: Intuitive, interpretive, computational and cricitcal methods. While presenting for each an overview, sources of error and synergies with HCI, they further investigate in a case study conducted with The Delphi method (an intuitive methods) for exploring the method itself and the role of HCI in sustainability research. A collapse is a very complex and multidisciplinary scenario, the Delphi method would be an appropriate tool to provide new

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insights especially in domains with which the researcher is unfamiliar. For example to predict the timing of collapse (as a section in the collapse informatics paper adresses), the Delphi method could be used to ask the experts in the field what their assumptions are and derive the most common attitudes and mindsets out of this data. As the paper shows, there are opportunities for HCI methods to enhance Future Studies methods and vice versa. Collapse informatics seeks to understand how to design ICT and sociotechnical systems to enable social wellbeing in times of collapse. However, this states a strategic desing problem since it is impossible for a reseacher or designer to engage with the anticipated users and to understand their needs and ways of viewing the world in which they live. Understanding how sociotechnical systems may support and provide for these needs in a sustainable way in a time of scarcity is the core of the collapse informatics design problem. I like the fact that the authors provide a selection of potential projects that would be relevant to this domain. These sophisticated application ideations and context scenarios provide an impression how research in collapse informatics could evolve.

In my opintion, to deal with future scenarios is very interesting and also very important. ICT has a lot of potential to play a significant role in delaying or even avoiding a collapse. However, if humanity keeps on neglecting the signs given by a tattered nature and proceeds in more or less the same way it does today, ICT also surely needs be prepared in times of decrease and scarcity.

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