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Cost Mart Case

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Submitted By qijia1031
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* Brief overview
Cost-Mart is a national wide retailing business entity. Its retailing business ranges from daily groceries to electronic devices and house wares. The sales data for the past eight months have been obtained. In order to forecast the next week’s sales data, the client is now demanding a multiplicative time series decomposition model. For such model, a time trend and seasonal indices components are preferred. The useful data include daily sales, sales column, and some additional variables are provided. Using the provided data, the following questions can be analysised. * The fitted time trend equation
As the result showed in the Minitab 17, the fitted trend equation is
Yt = 285537 + 263.0×t. From the equation, starting sales is 285537, with the increase of time, the sales will increase 263 each day. * The 7 seasonal indices (Sunday to Saturday)
Period Index
1 1.05129
2 0.94997
3 0.89406
4 0.91540
5 0.95225
6 1.10106
7 1.13598
From the above data, season 1, 6, and 7 are higher seasons. Season 2, 3, 4, and 5 are lower reasons. Also, season 3 is the lowest season, and season 7 is the highest season.

* The sales forecasts for the next 7 days (Sun Sep 3, to Sat Sep 9)
Period Forecast
246 368210
247 332972
248 313613
249 321337
250 334522
251 387089
252 399665
From the Minitab 17, the above data is the sales forecasts for the next 7 days. As the date changing, the sales forecasts also will change. The forecast sale on period 252 is the highest, and period 248 is the lowest, which is $ 313, 613. Also, the forecasts sales in period 246, 251, and 252 are higher than the average, and the period 247, 248, 249, and 250 are lower. * How does the first forecast compare to the observed value of $378,732.27?
From the result of the Minitab 17, the first forecast is $368,210, compare to the observed value $ 378, 732.27, the first forecast is higher.

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