...that hold certain biases and this movie displays them well. One of the biases is confirmation bias, which restricts new information. This Bias is seem early in the beginning of the film. For example when Mr. Fonda introduced the notion of the murder knife not being as rare as the prosecutor showed. One of the juror's rejected the new information because of the boy's background, and the area he lived. The other juror had relationship problems with his son so he rejected any new data that made the convicted boy seem innocent. Both these jurors hold on to their belief even when relevant data emerged to challenge their view, the defense mechanism that arose was anger towards the others. The jurors also display the bias of small data, which they rely on small amount of information to make a decision. Which throughout the film, Mr. Fonda makes each of them realize that there is more to the other side of the story. And makes it relatively available. For example, if one reviews the testimony information, one realizes that its accuracy is significantly lowered. Like the testimony of the woman who herd and saw the boy stab his father, when Fonda reenact the scene there was large holes that could be turned in favor of the boy. Although, Fonda and the some of the jurors came to see that viewing more data on the case, there can be points made for the boy, the others like the guy that had problems with his son rejected the idea and continued to stick to the small data presented by the prosecutor...
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...prejudice or favoritism is bias. Biases affect not only our judgment but also our behavior, beliefs, and perception. Biases are selective, learned, culturally determined and can be inaccurate. Biased thinking leads to misunderstanding, wrong decisions, and to costly consequences. Bias can prove very destructive and is the foundation of stereotypes, prejudice and, ultimately, discrimination. A stereotype is an exaggerated belief, image or distorted truth about a person or group — a generalization that allows for little or no individual differences or social variation. A prejudice is an opinion, prejudgment or attitude about a group or its individual members. Prejudices are often accompanied by ignorance, fear or hatred. Prejudice begins with attachment to a close circle of acquaintances or an "in-group" such as a family and is often aimed at "out-groups." Discrimination is behavior that treats people unequally because of their group memberships and often begins with negative stereotypes and prejudices. Once learned, stereotypes and prejudices resist change, even when evidence fails to support them or points to the contrary. (Willoughby, 2007) When I think of bias I think of blatant ways that it manifests itself, but bias can be so subtle that it is hidden and hard to spot. If I change my conscious attitudes and beliefs this may indirectly change my hidden attitudes and beliefs. If I become aware of my hidden biases, I can suppress and attempt to eliminate...
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...Behavioral Economics Matters for HIV Research: The Impact of Behavioral Biases on Adherence to Antiretrovirals (ARVs) Abstract Behavioral economics (BE) has been used to study a number of health behaviors such as smoking and drug use, but there is little knowledge of how these insights relate to HIV prevention and care. We present novel evidence on the prevalence of the common behavioral decision-making errors of present-bias, overoptimism, and information salience among 155 Ugandan HIV patients, and analyze their association with subsequent medication adherence. 36 % of study participants are classified as present-biased, 21 % as overoptimistic, and 34 % as having salient HIV information. Patients displaying present-bias were 13 % points (p = 0.006) less likely to have adherence rates above 90 %, overoptimistic clients were 9 % points (p = 0.04) less likely, and those not having salient HIV information were 17 % points (p\0.001) less likely. These findings indicate that BE may be used to screen for future adherence problems and to better design and target interventions addressing these behavioral biases and the associated suboptimal adherence The Importance of BE Biases for Chronic Health Behaviors We focus on three key behavioral biases that have been found to influence health behaviors for other chronic conditions [9] and that we hypothesize may also be important to components of ARV adherence: Present-Bias A key behavioral bias is present-bias, which is the tendency...
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...player performance at the time. The executives where accustom to using their personal biases, human rationale, gut instinct and tying things to performance that made no sense such as an ugly player’s girlfriend. Beane relied on objective evidence, explicitly ignoring anything that could be dismissed as "subjective” (Thaler and Sunstein, 2003). They also treat mere coincidences as facts in which a high probability was applied. According to Belkin (2002), the true meaning of the word, coincidence is "a surprising concurrence of events, perceived as meaningfully related, with no apparent causal connection." In other words, pure happenstance. Yet by merely noticing a coincidence, we elevate it to something that transcends its definition as pure chance. We are discomforted by the idea of a random universe. Beane’s effectiveness in His Success Beane was more effective in his success because he abandoned the baseball heuristics of his day. He applied a non-conventional method that was not widely used. Since his methodology was not popular he was looked upon as being crazy because he was not using the same old method of that time. He valued winning. Therefore he was always evaluating the desirability of any possible alternatives or consequences. He took this approach with every player he brought in or traded. Therefore he exercised value-focused thinking with the use of statistical data. Keeney (1994) defined value-focused thinking as the being designed to focus the decision...
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...NYPD’s stops, this articles claims that minorities are stopped more often then whites. In regards to stops blacks and hispanics represented 51% and 33% of the stops although representing only 26% and 24% of the New York City population. In comparison to the number of arrests of each group in the previous year (used as a proxy for the rate of criminal behavior), blacks were stopped 23% and hispanics 39% more often than whites (pg.18).” The way in which the data was collected was by the authors “using hierarchical multilevel models to adjust for precinct-level variability, thus directly addressing the question of geographic heterogeneity that arises in the analysis of pedestrian stops (pg.1).” Even with the data that they collected they determined that ‘African and Hispanic descent were stopped more frequently than whites.” Having these findings presented, the question is why are minorities being stopped more frequently than whites. To answer this question we must understand that people have biases, and have subconscious biases. With members in law enforcement being human, they also suffer...
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...The Giant Pool of Money Analysis The housing crisis that occurred less than a decade ago is a great example, and has become an extensively covered case study, of how dangerous certain biases and heuristics can become if left unchecked on a massive scale. Alex Blumberg and Adam Davidson, in collaboration with NPR News, put together a special program titled “The Giant Pool of Money,” where they explore just how the phenomenon occurred and the underlying factors that contributed through sound bites of those directly involved, affected, or simply aware of the situation as it unfolded. Based on descriptions of various biases and heuristics in Judgment in Managerial Decision Making (Bazerman, 2009), the two biases that prolonged and strengthened the housing crisis in a significant manner can be seen in the “Ease of recall” bias stemming from the “Availability Heuristic,” as well as the “Anchoring” bias coming from the “Confirmation Heuristic.” Bazerman and Moore define the “ease of recall” bias as one where “individuals judge events that are more easily recalled from memory, based on vividness or recency, to be more numerous than events of equal frequency whose instances are less easily recalled.” The housing market and real estate had been doing quite well since the “Dot-com” boom and bust had rattled markets in the late 1990’s. Housing prices were continually increasing, and “lots of people in the mortgage industry had this faith that housing prices in the US simply never go down...
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...transaction costs can be reduced by means of information and communication technology. In the present model, the service concepts to be assessed were formulated according to generally used modes of operation .The assessment of the model will involve four specialties telesurgery, teleophthalmology, telepsychiatry and teleradiology from the Health Care District of Northern Finland and telepathology from the Health Care District of Southwestern Finland. The different projects will even collect same types of data on many other factors such as travel costs, assessment of equipment and technology, and worker and patient satisfaction. Several have been drawn up of factors to be considered in health technology assessment. The measurements will make use of cost-benefit or cost-effectiveness analyses. The preliminary findings of the cost analyses will be published as soon as possible to provide decision-makers with a basis for decisions on the procurement of telemedical equipment. Data collection will ended in late...
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...decisions are made. From a psychological reference, heuristics are defined as a mental shortcut that describes the behavioral mechanics on how individuals solve problems and make quick and efficient decisions. Heuristics are considered proficient cognitive processes, conscious or unconscious, that ignores part of the information in making decision. This discussion examines the concept of heuristics in terms of making decisions and explaining the failure to ignore base rates, discuss the relevant factors of why associated with the decision and if the decision was framed properly to ascertain a better decision. Literature Review (Shanteau, 1989) suggested that (Kahneman and Tversky, 1982) exemplified their view of heuristics and biases as follows: "In making pre dictions and judgments under uncertainty, people do not appear to follow the calculus of chance or the statistical theory of prediction. Instead, they rely on a limited number of heuristics which sometimes yield reasonable judgments and sometimes lead to severe and systematic errors.” (Kahneman & Tversky, 1982) went on to identify three of several cognitive heuristics for risk judgments- representativeness, availability, and anchoring-and-adjustment. * Representativeness – (Shanteau, 1989) referenced (Kahneman and Tversky, 1984) as explaining the representativeness heuristic to describe making an uncertainty judgment on the basis of the degree to which the judgment is similar in essential properties...
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...Social Biases Paper Psych 555 May 5, 2013 Dr. Anthony Social Biases Paper Bias is generally described as favoring thinking of particular way, or something to watch. Being biased means attitude of that person or behavior is particularly prejudice. The person may be aware of that he is bias. Social prejudices are a social problem, because a group is looking at another individual or group as the group feels that they are superior to others. The social interaction among some groups might have to create common biases. Social biases may be very harmful and can interfere with human interaction (Fiske, 2010). Define the concepts of prejudice, stereotyping and discrimination Prejudice means feeling or having attitude towards members of a group, established solely on the basis of membership in this group. Stereotypes dealt with generalizations regarding others that usually cause display of others group predictable and typical characteristics. Discrimination means an act of a group or person against another group or person who is the prejudice subject. Stereotypes put people into groups having similar attributes or characteristics. Stereotypes have the ability to distort the perspective of a person. As soon as a stereotype becomes active, the features belong to the group, either positive or negative, they are easy to remember. Stereotypes can influence social judgments on how much a person loves another, and this behavior is normal. There was a time when because of the stereotyping...
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...of these processes. Estimation is a very important step in modeling and decision analysis. Without proper assessments of project duration, finish time, cost, resources, success rate and other parameters, it is almost impossible to select a proper alternative and ultimately make a good decision. Accurate estimation cannot be done without valid inputs. The information for estimations can only come from two sources: 1) Historical data or data about previous similar projects. This data can be captured in the project manager’s brain or obtained as a result of data analysis. 2) Measurements of the current project’s performance. Analysis of current project performance project makes is possible to forecast what will happen in the future. The human brain processes this information extremely fast using certain simplification techniques. In many cases, they work very well, in others they can lead to systemic mistakes or biases e.g. ➢ Motivational biases are caused by the personal interest of the person making the estimation. ➢ Cognitive biases are related to simplification techniques that people use to process information. According to the theory he developed together with Amos Tversky, people use heuristics or “rules of thumb” as a basis for their...
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...existing network? Problems 1. Slow Internet 2. Sending email 3. Accessing web-based applications 4. Printing Design principles that may have been ignored by Network Rogues could include analyzing ElectroMyCycle’s initial requirements, scalability (the ability of a network to handle a growing amount of work or its ability to be enlarged to accommodate that growth), bandwidth (the average rate of successful data transfer through a communication path), and latency (the measure of the time delay experienced by a system). I don’t believe that Network Rogues were expecting the major jump in growth of the company which was caused by the increase in the production of the electric motorcycle and unfortunately did not design the network to handle this growth. 3. List four major stakeholders for a new network design for ElectroMyCycle. For each stakeholder, list a minimum of two design goals, constraints, and biases. 1. End Users Design goals – ease of use, good performance, response time Constraints – number of stations, size of the network Biases –...
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...differing methods are always being debated and analyzed. The valuation of traditional companies with historical data and comparative industry examples can be a bit confusing for the average person but with practice they really are not overly complicated. The discounted cash flow method, or DCF, is a widely academically accepted method that uses the concept of the time value of money to discount future expected cash flows. While often these DCF calculations can be fairly straightforward, there are instances where estimating future cash flows can be quite difficult. Startup companies pose significant challenges to the discounted cash flow model because of a lack of historical data. It may not be difficult to estimate future cash flows for a billion dollar company with years of data, but what about a 6 month old company with limited revenue and few tangible assets? In situations like this it is more important than ever for investors to look beyond numbers and to look deeper into the makeup of a company, its management, and their products or services. Difficulties in Using DCF to Value Startup Companies With discounted cash flows and almost all other valuation techniques, the less guesswork or estimation the better. The “Human Element” when making critical assumptions like growth rate can be affected by biases including excessive optimism and overconfidence. “Biases in traditional discounted cash flow valuation arise in connection with the cash flows themselves, for example...
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...endeavor require the utmost care in maintaining a distance from all sorts of biases and false assumptions. There are 12 cognitive biases and 24 logical fallacies that the human mind is inclined to fall into. If unaware, a scientist may fall prey to one of these and may draw false conclusions from the data from their scientific experiments. Needless to say, that such an incident may have drastic consequences especially in the field of space exploration, health science, information technology. One such logical fallacy is called the “black-or-white.” In my personal experience, I have seen various scientific publications in which when a possible reason for a particular observation is proven wrong, its contrary is held to be the truth. Often times a third possibility/reason could be at play. This is particularly true for natural systems that are used in the life sciences sector. Another logical fallacy that is particularly pernicious is called “appeal to authority.” Many a times the pioneers of a particular field subscribe to a particular line of thought, only based on experience without any proof, which is then held to be universally true. Derivations based on the factual nature of an unproven theory like that may lead one to draw false conclusions. A cognitive bias that may creep into scientific research is called “confirmation bias.” This kind of bias may involve a scientist referring to only those data and publications that help confirm their own findings and theories. Such a bias...
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...to ensure that quality, trustworthiness, and credibility of my research data are of measured standard within the realm of research, a researcher needs to develop reflexive skills towards interrogating prevailing assumptions from the researcher’s perspective and critiquing self in order to eliminates personal influences and biases. However, this would be hinged on some fundamentals criteria that serves as a basis; thus, Tracy (2010) affirmed that eight key markers are associated with quality in qualitative research. These include worthy topic, rich rigor, sincerity, credibility, resonance, significant contribution, ethics, and meaningful coherence; exhibition of these attributes by a researcher would be a function of non-biases and actualization of a substantial level of reflection by researcher. Doing this would ensure that quality, trustworthiness, and credibility with regard to the research and data are actualized. Interview as a means of data collection may be occasioned by both internal and external factors that abound with the scope of the design of the research which may impact on the credibility and trustworthiness of the interview of mini-project. As per data collection during the interview stage, a researcher needs to remove all elements of distraction from the site of data collection, attain a substantial level of preparedness, exercising of objectivity, and acting without biases, this should be occasioned by the need for self-reflection by researcher...
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...effectively and efficiently perform a search to locate information that will best fit the research process. This process includes understanding the various sources available to assist in finding this information. Research that has no creditable sources to back up the findings will not provide efficient results. Drug research in the drug industry can be categorized based on general information or statistics and not the evaluation of people. This information can have conclusions based on the effects a drug may have but not everyone will have the same reaction. On the other hand, some biases are based on gender, race, or ethnicity. Most people learn biases at home, at school, in church, or in other social settings. Which can lead to understanding all sides to the story, knowing what’s right and wrong, and moral development. On the contrary, if morality were nothing more than common sense, why are there so many biases that require disputes and issues in research? The best explanation for these differences is that all people are individuals who have different thoughts, processes, and reactions. Research has to follow legal rules and laws in order to keep results unbiased, ethical, and accurate. We also use research strategies and principles to criticize, assess, advise, or interpret laws. When evaluating research all parties must remain unbiased and ethical. To be ethical, researchers must be sure their research protects the privacy of subjects and does not cause them unwarranted stress...
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