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Delphi

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Índice Página
Portada. ………………………………………………………….1
Índice. …………………………………………………………….2
Introducción. ……………………………………………………3
Información General. ……………...…………………………..3
Desarrollo. ………………………………………………………4
Ventajas y Desventajas del Método Delphi. ………………6
Conclusión. ……………………………………………………..7
Referencias y Sitios Web. ……………………………………8

Introducción
La Técnica o Método Delphi es una herramienta creada por la Corporación Rand al inicio de la Guerra Fría (1989), donde se investigó el impacto de la tecnología en la guerra donde se hicieron pronósticos militares patrocinados por la Fuerza Aérea de los Estados Unidos. Se considera una técnica efectiva y valida de reunir información sobre un tema o problema complejo donde hay escases de información, evidencias o acuerdos, es por esto que es una técnica muy importante para la investigación multidisciplinaria y para la realización de pronósticos y predicciones aplicado con fines civiles, una vez que se desclasifico el método Delphi por las Fuerzas Aéreas de USA se empezó a extender rápidamente, en primer lugar, hacia la previsión tecnológica a largo plazo y posteriormente a otros campos importantes como el transporte, la educación, la sanidad, turismo por mencionar algunos.
Consiste en recoger las opiniones de expertos por medio de encuestas de manera anónima. La idea fundamental de este método es que el conocimiento “grupal” es mejor al de un solo experto, en áreas donde la información es escasa o no se encuentra disponible. El propósito principal es obtener juicios y propuestas, buscando puntos en común a las respuestas para llegar a un consenso de opiniones expertas.
Información General
La incertidumbre es una variable negativa para la toma de decisiones futuras, al conocer las tendencias de ciertos temas o eventos podríamos disminuir la incertidumbre esto se logra a través del Método Delphi. Este método logra aumentar el conocimiento del tema que se está investigando y da una apreciación calificada por expertos del mismo logrando a su vez un consenso de grupo, estas percepciones de expertos se fundamentan en su experiencia y expectativas personales.
Las técnicas cualitativas son usadas cuando los datos son escasos, por ejemplo cuando se quiere hacer una investigación de sobre tecnología futura o se trata de introducir un producto nuevo. Este método usa criterios de las personas y que dan información cualitativa y las transforma en estimados cuantitativos, que a su vez son cuantificadas estadísticamente mediantes valores estadísticos como la media, mediana, moda, cuartiles, varianzas, histogramas, rangos, probabilidades, etc.

Desarrollo
El Método Delphi es una técnica con la cual se logra el conceso de un grupo sobre un tema. Consiste en entregar una encuesta o cuestionario a personas expertas en el tema, logrando de esta forma recoger el conocimiento de todo el grupo de expertos. Esta herramienta permite a los investigadores obtener una visión más detallada y profunda de las opiniones del tema.
El proceso del Método Delphi se concluye en cuatro fases, que a continuación se describen: 1. Primera Fase.- se caracteriza por la exploración del tema que se quiere investigar. Donde cada individuo contribuye con información que crean pertinente. 2. Segunda Fase.- comprende el proceso en el cual el grupo logra una comprensión del tema. Salen a la luz los acuerdos y desacuerdos que existen entre los expertos del tema. 3. Tercera Fase.- es donde se exploran los desacuerdos, se extraen las razones de las diferencias y se hace una evaluación de ellas. 4. Cuarta Fase.- es la evaluación final. Se logra cuando toda la información reunida previamente ha sido analizada y los resultados obtenidos han sido enviados como retroalimentación para nuevas consideraciones.
Existen tres tipos de pronósticos para usa el Método Delphi: 1. Por objetivo.- depende que tipo de objetivo sea el deseado. Donde se encuentran las siguientes clasificaciones: * Delphi de Proyección: diseñada para proyectar eventos, tendencias, variables, que sirven para la toma de decisiones. Busca el enfrentamiento de opiniones, evitando los problemas de un encuentro cara a cara. * Delphi de Política: es una herramienta de análisis de políticas alternativas y no un mecanismo de toma de decisiones. Busca que todos los problemas hayan sido expuestos para estimar el impacto y consecuencias de cada opción para estimular la aceptación de una opción.

2. Por conducción.- depende de la forma de conducir el ejercicio. Se presentan los siguientes tipos: * Delphi Convencional: es el más común y se caracteriza por la importancia del diseño del grupo monitor, como en las respuestas. Su ventaja es que puede adaptarse o modificarse en función de las respuestas del grupo. * Delphi Computador: el grupo monitor es remplazado principalmente por una computadora y se programa para la reunir los resultados. Su ventaja es que permite una mayor rapidez en el procesamiento de la información y se minimizan los errores.

3. Otros tipos.- * Delphi Cara a Cara: tienen características similares a los anteriores en cuanto a su objetivo, sin embargo sin embargo la conducción presenta variaciones. La diferencia fundamental radica en la forma de presentar el cuestionario, aquí a cada integrante del panel se le hace una entrevista donde individualmente se le da respuesta al cuestionario. Su ventaja es la flexibilidad en las respuestas debido a que el entrevistador puede resolver a cualquier duda o ambigüedad. * Mini Delphi: sus características son similares a los anteriores, la diferencia aquí es que consiste en hacer una conferencia de mesa redonda, donde las opiniones y respuestas se hacen por escrito. En este caso el grupo monitor responde cualquier duda, tabula los resultados y devuelve el cuestionario a los participantes. Su ventaja es tener mayor flexibilidad y ahorro de tiempo.
El Método Delphi en general es muy útil para analizar y responder una pregunta sobre una variable. Cuando se tiene que analizar múltiples variables, los resultados podrían no ser los óptimos. No obstante en un modelo complejo se podría utilizar para analizar las variables una a una y utilizar los resultados individuales como entrada del modelo complejo. A continuación se mencionan algunos ejemplos en los que puede ser utilizado el Método Delphi: * Planear en grupos o mejorar la comunicación. * Hacer predicciones sobre cómo va a ser o como debe ser un evento futuro en temas como economía, política, tecnología o asuntos sociológico. * Identificar necesidades y solucionar problemas. * Encontrar información relevante para crear conceso en un grupo de expertos. * Integrar juicios sobre un tema interdisciplinario. * Identificar y estudiar un rango de posibilidades alternativas o estratégicas para solucionar un problema. * En Producción: * Costo de materia prima. * Costo de mano de obra. * Disponibilidad de materia prima. * Disponibilidad de mano de obra. * Capacidad de la planta de producción. * En el área de Mercadotecnia: * Tamaño del mercado. * Participación del mercado. * Tendencia de precios. * Desarrollo de nuevos productos. * En finanzas: * Tasa de interés. * Cuantas de pagos lentos. * En Recursos Humanos: * Rotación de personal. * Tendencia de ausentismo. * Número de trabajadores. * Planeación estratégica: * Factores Económicos. * Cambios de precios. * Costos. * Crecimiento de línea de producción.
Para empezar la aplicación del Método Delphi existen los siguientes diez pasos a seguir:

Ventajas y Desventajas del Método Delphi
Ventajas
1. El método Delphi reconoce la diferencia entre una opinión subjetiva y una opinión arbitraria. El juicio de expertos sobre un tema relativamente desconocido puede ser considerado como subjetivo, pero no arbitrario. 2. También reconoce la utilidad del buen juicio y criterio del grupo de expertos. Ya que como una sola persona por lo general no tiene suficiente conocimiento sobre ciertos problemas para descubrir la solución al mismo.se denomina efecto halo o influencias de las personalidades cuando los miembros del grupo saben quien emitió una u otra opinión. 3. Reducción de la posibilidad de que algún miembro tome la opinión de la mayoría sin tener reflexión, esto debido a que se evalúa, recopila y tabulan opiniones independientes logrando reducir o eliminando tendencias. 4. Elimina el temor que algún miembro del grupo se pueda retractar o modifique su opinión. 5. Elimina y/o reduce los efectos dañinos del trabajo para los comités, donde se presentan los sesgos antes mencionados.
Desventajas
1. Sesgo en la composición del panel, donde se presentarían sesgos en la recarga de la participación de los miembros (donde se fuerza al grupo con un sentido pesimista u optimista), incluir individuos con una ideología determinada logrando un desequilibrio, panelistas dogmaticos lo que dificultaría la obtención del consenso. 2. Prejuicios del monitor, esta sucede cuando la elección de un panel que tienda a asegurar los resultados en cierta dirección pensada. 3. Ignorar desacuerdos, ocurre cuando el criterio de lo que se considera como consenso es muy flexible o cuando las minorías no son consideradas como resultados. 4. Exceso de simplificación, esto se puede evitar utilizando varios diseños de cuestionarios teniendo en cuenta el nivel cultural de los panelistas (estudios, lenguaje, nivel cultura, etc.). 5. La ilusión del experto, esta es basada por los juicios de expertos, debido a que sus puntos de vista se basan en su propio subsistema y puede suceder que el panelista no considera el sistema como un todo. 6. Falta de imaginación, la imaginación y creatividad son componentes necesarios para diseñar el Método Delphi. 7. Manipulación de datos, debido a la forma del procesos pudieran ser manipulados los datos al distorsionar los feedbacks y/o los resultados finales del ejercicio.
Conclusión
El Método Delphi es utilizado para pronosticar variables donde se produce información de posibles comportamientos futuros de ciertos factores o variables en el área de interés (tema escogido). Se pronostican variables cualitativas en la cual se recopila opiniones de un grupo de expertos logrando un mejor panorama de las opiniones del tema. Las conclusiones de este no solo recogen las opiniones generales si no también las que están en contra y las razones que soportan el tema.
A través del Método Delphi podemos lograr identificar necesidades y solucionar problemas ya que nos permite hacer predicciones sobre algún evento futuro. Es una herramienta útil que sirve en diferentes situaciones para: hacer predicciones, planear, solucionar problemas, tomar decisiones reales o simuladas, investigar un tema, etc. Al utilizar adecuadamente el Método Delphi puede ser una herramienta útil para cerrar la brecha entre la ignorancia total acerca de algunas variables y una apreciación calificada de los valores que esas variables pueden tomar.
Para lograr resultados validos debemos partir de cuestionarios que contengan preguntas que sean las más claras posibles. La elección y el número de participantes deben ser expertos en el tema objetivo. Se debe mantener el anonimato de los participantes para que se sientan libres de expresarse y no tengan presión. Se sugiere que el grupo de trabajo tenga mucha creatividad en el diseño del cuestionario, una alta motivación en los expertos y destreza de los conductores y que se disponga del tiempo necesario.

Referencias
Introducción a la Investigación de Operaciones
Fredericks Hiller, Quinta Edición, Mc. Graw-Hill
Sitios Web: http://www.eumed.net/tesis-doctorales/2008/dfr/metodo%20Delphi.htm http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%A9todo_Delphi
http://riem.facmed.unam.mx/sites/all/archivos/V1Num02/07_MI_DESCRIPCION_Y_USOS.PDF

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Diogene Research Paper

...Diogenes of Sinope was known for being different from the rest of society. Diogenes was popularly known as a Kyon, which in Greek means “dog.” The word cynic derives from Kyon and was later associated with the philosophy of cynicism which is “The end of life is virtue, not pleasure, and it can only be obtained by independence of all earthly possessions and pleasures” (Philosophy.lander.edu) as well as living a “living a life full of virtue in agreement with nature”(Philosophybasics.com). Diogenes lives in a barrel, and he happily demonstrates that there is more to life than just power and riches. The fact that he lives in such a simple manner, shows that he doesn’t need materials to be happy. In Tendryakov’s Revelations next to a Philosopher’s Barrel, Diogenes of Sinope is an outcast in society. Although he was an outcast, he was very popular because of how differently he lived his life and behaved around others. “There was only one person in the city who did not even stir to cast a glance at Alexander, the Macedonian king. He himself was famous both in Corinth and without it—Diogenes of Sinope, the strange sage. (Translator's Private Collection).” Diogenes was not like the rest of the Greeks, he kept to himself and didn’t really care too much for people of power. In this quote, he was the only one to not care for Alexander the Great or anyone else for that matter. The idea of not having any ethical duties in society is hard to imagine. Diogenes was detached from everyday human...

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