...The Indian Rupee has depreciated to an all time low with respect to the US Dollar. On 28th August 2013, the Indian rupee had gone down to 68.825 against the Dollar but the situation was somewhat revived by the Reserve Bank of India that decided to open a special window for helping state owned oil companies – Indian Oil Corp Ltd., Bharat Petroleum Corp and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. The beneficiaries will be able to buy dollars through this window till further notice is provided. These companies, together, require about 8.5 billion dollars every month to import oil and it is expected that this will help them meet the requirements. This has had an immediate effect as is evident from the fact that the INR has started at 67 against the USD at the early proceedings in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market. The question, however, is why this is happening. There are several reasons that can be enumerated in such a scenario: Basic law of economics As per the rudimentary laws of economics if the demand for USD in India exceeds its supply then its worth will go up and that of the INR will come down in that respect. It may be that importers are the major entities who are in need of the dollar for making their payments. Another possibility here could be that the Foreign Institutional Investors are withdrawing their investments in the country and taking them elsewhere. This can create a shortfall in supply of the dollar in India. In fact, of late, the FIIs have been heading to greener pastures...
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...The Indian Rupee Crisis Economics Essay-1 In this paper we are going to examine the cause and the impact of rupee depreciation on the Indian economy. Since last few months Indian rupee came under great stress as overseas investors are paring their exposure to Asia’s third-largest economy amid international uncertainty and mounting worries over the domestic economy. In 2009 – 2010 the exchange rate was hovering around the 43 – 45 rupees per US Dollar level. And now it is around 55 – 56 levels, the main reasons to examine are increase in import bill, higher inflation, fiscal mismanagement and all resulting in higher cost of borrowing. The rupee has lost more than 15% of its value this year, making it one of the worst performing currencies in Asia. This paper reviews the probable reasons for this depreciation of the rupee and the outlook for the same. It also reflects on the policy options to help prevent the depreciation of the Rupee. This paper will firstly discuss about the economy of currency to give an overview of the problem and the factors related to it. Afterwards it will be examining the causes of the Indian rupee depreciation with respect to the Indian economy and the global economy. And after that it will analyse the impact of the same on trade and business. Finally, recommending the policy actions in response of the falling currency. II. LITERATURE REVIEW: These papers include the work which have been used as a basis or reference for formulating the policies regarding...
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...The derivative word rūpaya[citation needed] was used to denote the coin introduced by Sher Shah Suri during his reign of 1540 to 1545 What is Rupee Appreciation & Rupee Depreciation Rupee Appreciation & Rupee Depreciation (instead of using the word ‘currency’ we are using ‘rupee’ for the Indian context and explain the fluctuation with respect to dollar). When rupee is said to be appreciating it means that our currency is gaining strength and its value is increasing with respect to dollar. However, when rupee depreciates it means our currency is getting weaker & its value is falling with respect to dollar. You can understand it with the following example: Suppose, currently, the exchange rate is Rs. 45 = $1, 10 months later, either of the following two cases can happen Case1: The exchange rate is say Rs. 40 = $1. This means rupee has appreciated or gotten stronger by approx 11% and you would be paying less to for a dollar Case2: The exchange rate is at Rs. 50 = $1. This means rupee has depreciated or gotten weaker by approx 11% and you end up paying more for a dollar. Factors Influencing rupee fluctuation Rupee’s appreciation or depreciation against the dollar depends on the change in demand and supply for both the currencies. If the demand for rupee is comparatively high, rupee appreciates; if low, it depreciates. The important question here is ‘what factors drive the demand for a currency?’ They are: * Interest Rate: A demand for a currency is hugely...
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...Depreciating Rupee: Introduction: Depreciation refers to a fall in the value of the domestic currency which is caused by the demand for foreign currency exceeding its supply in the market. In such a situation one has to pay more than before to get units of foreign currency. This fall takes place in the market and on its own. Market determined exchange rate serves the purpose of aligning the domestic economy with the world economy was the price route. As consequences the domestic price gets linked up with those of the world price. With the liberalizations and globalization of the economy in recent years, imports are bound to increase. The lessening of restrictions on imports and lowering of tariff on imports which the economic reform implies, an increase in imports has in fact taken place. Again with trade having become an important element of the new strategy of growth. As per the basic laws of economics if the demand for USD in India exceeds its supply then it’s worth will go up and that of the INR will come down in that respect. It may be that importers are the major entities who are in need of the dollar for making their payments. Likelihood here could be that the Foreign Institutional Investors are retreating their investments in the country and taking them elsewhere. This can create a shortfall in supply of the dollar in India. This state of affairs can only be addressed by exporters who can bring in dollars in the system....
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...an rupee AN ASSIGNMENT ON FLUCTUATIONS IN INDIAN CURRENCY AND ITS IMPACTS SUBMITTED TO: Professor Harshit Shah SUBMITTED BY: Amber A Maheshwari (NR12070) SUBMITTED ON: 19th September 2013 INTRODUCTION TO EXCHANGE RATE MECHANISM: All economies that interact with international economy can be broadly classified into three categories on the basis of exchange rate policy of the country. 1) FIXED EXCHANGE RATE: These economies peg the value of their currency with some other prominent currency like US dollar. This system is simple and provides stability to the economy (of course, if the economy of the country to whose currency its currency is pegged is stable). This type of exchange rate regime is maintained by generally smaller economies like Nepal and Bhutan (pegged to Indian Rupee) or several African nations. Rational behind such regime is that in case of small economy – if the exchange rate is market determined – the sudden influx or out flux of even relatively small amount of foreign capital will have large impact on exchange rate and cause instability to its economy. Notable exception is China which despite being large economy has its currency pegged to US dollar. 2) FLOATING (OR FREE) EXCHANGE RATE: Bigger and developed economies like US, UK, Japan etc generally let market determine their exchange rate. In such economy exchange rate is determined by demand and supply of the currency. For example consider exchange rate of US dollar versus Japanese Yen...
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...Currency Depreciation – a concern for the Indian Economy The Indian Rupee has marked a significant depreciation against the US dollar marking a new risk for Indian Economy. Till the beginning of the current financial year very few had ever expected Rupee to depreciate to so low levels. On October 21, 2011, the rupee crossed Rs. 50/$ for the first time this year touching new lows of Rs.53.72/$ on 14th December 2011. What is even more interesting to note is that when other countries are trying to keep their currencies devalued, India is trying to prevent depreciation of its currency. As Indian currency has sharply depreciated not only against the US dollar, but also against the other currencies of the world, a myriad of factors can be associated with this devaluation of this currency. There are supposedly four factors behind the recent scenario: * Flight of foreign funds from the Indian market. * Slowdown in the capital inflows. * Higher global crude oil prices, which widens the current account deficit and also increase dollar buying by oil companies. * Recovery of US dollar. As the downbeat forces have played strong over the last few months, investor risk-appetite has contracted, thereby increasing the demand for safe haven such as US treasury, gold and the greenback. Secondly a prospective decline in inflows on the capital account of the balances of payments could further be associated with the depreciation in rupee. The most possible impact of the devaluation...
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...Rupee Depreciation and Impact on the Economy (Dr. Nikhil Saket, Senior Assistant Secretary, ICAI, New Delhi) Introduction Depreciation refers to a fall in the value of the domestic currency which is caused by the demand for foreign currency exceeding its supply in the market. In such a situation one has to pay more than before to get units of foreign currency. This fall takes place in the market and on its own. Market determined exchange rate serves the purpose of aligning the domestic economy with the world economy was the price route. As consequences the domestic price gets linked up with those of the world price. With the liberalizations and globalization of the economy in recent years, imports are bound to increase. The lessening of restrictions on imports and lowering of tariff on imports which the economic reform implies, an increase in imports has in fact taken place. Again with trade having become an important element of the new strategy of growth. India got freedom from British rule on Aug 15, 1947. At that time the Indian rupee was linked to the British pound and its value was at par with the American dollar. There was no foreign borrowing on India's balance sheet. To finance welfare and development activities, especially with the introduction of the Five-Year Plan in 1951, the government started external borrowings. This required the devaluation of the rupee.- After independence, Indian choose to adopt a fixed rate currency regime. The rupee was pegged at 4.79 against...
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...Rupee Depreciation: Probable Causes and Outlook The Indian Rupee has depreciated significantly against the US Dollar marking a new risk for Indian economy. Till the beginning of the financial year (Apr 11-Mar 12) very few had expected Rupee to depreciate with most hinting towards either appreciation or status quo in the rupee levels. Those few who had even anticipated may not have imagined the scale of depreciation with rupee touching a new low of around Rs 54 to the US Dollar. What is even more interesting to note is that when other countries are trying to play currency wars and trying to keep their currencies devalued, India is trying to prevent depreciation of the currency. (Read our previous report for a review of the situation- Saying No To Currency Wars (20-Sep-11)) This paper reviews the probable reasons for this depreciation of the rupee and the outlook for the same. It also reflects on the policy options to help prevent the depreciation of the Rupee I. Economics of Currency Predicting currency movements is perhaps one of the hardest exercises in economics as it has many variables affecting the market movement. However, over a longer term currency movement is determined by following factors: Balance of Payments: It is the sum of current account and capital account of a country and is an external account of a country with other countries. Both current account and capital account play a role in determining the movement of the currency: o Current Account Surplus/Deficit:...
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...price falls and it is called as depreciation. Indian rupee has depreciated more than 26 per cent since 2011. The persistent decline in rupee is a cause of concern. Depreciation leads to imports becoming costlier which is a worry for India as it meets most of its oil demand via imports. Apart from oil, prices of other imported commodities like metals, gold etc will also rise pushing overall inflation higher. Even if prices of global oil and commodities decline, the Indian consumers might not benefit as depreciation will negate the impact. The depreciating rupee will add further pressure on the overall domestic inflation and since India is structurally an import intensive country, as reflected in the high and persistent current account deficits month after month, the domestic costs will rise on account of rupee depreciation. Exchange rate risk also drives away foreign investors which in turn depreciates the local currency. Indian Rupee is currently caught in this vicious cycle; it will have to find a stable level to regain investors’ confidence. The depreciating rupee has serious effects on the external debt figures of the nation. Owing to uncertainty prevailing in Europe and slump in international market, investors prefer to stay away from risky investments. This has significantly affected the portfolio investment in India. Consequently, flow of dollars start decreasing with respect to demand, and thus resulting in the fall of Rupee. Credit rating agencies also downgrade...
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...Rupee Depreciation- Why is it depreciating? Describe the impact on India’s Macroeconomics. The depreciation of rupee against the dollar is not a recent phenomenon. If we see the valuation of rupee over the past six decades, i.e., post-independence, we can see a continuous downward trend. Though there have been temporary fluctuations in the value, the general trend has been negative. To find the root cause of this phenomenon we need to go 200 years back. Prior to the 18th century most of the economies around the world followed the Silver standard. But then these economies switched to the gold standard, due to the devaluation of Silver as the supply of Silver increased due to increased mining activities. But the British rulers of India did not allow the Indian currency to switch to the gold standard. This resulted in a structural weakness of the currency, which we can still feel to this day. Another landmark episode in the depreciation of the rupee was the 1991 liberalization reforms. Post the reforms the rupee was devalued and allowed to float against the dollar to make Indian exports competitive and shore up more dollars into our reserves. Although we have reaped the benefits of this devaluation for long, the current depreciation is hurting the economy. Now moving on to the recent volatilities in the valuation of rupee, we can see the cause can be attributed to a number of policies and events occurring onshore as well as around the globe. The first would be the strengthening...
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...1. Indian currency (INR) has depreciated close to 22% in the last 1 year. In the article we will try to study the concerns of a country facing depreciating currency, the factors that led to this depreciation and the measures government can take to stabilize the situation. Most importantly we will see if global economic uncertainty rides over all the other domestic factors to determine strength of a currency especially in developing economies. Why don’t we need a depreciating INR? The persistent decline in rupee is a cause of concern. Depreciation leads to imports becoming costlier which is a worry for India as it meets most of its oil demand via imports. Apart from oil, prices of other imported commodities like metals, gold etc will also rise pushing overall inflation higher. Even if prices of global oil and commodities decline, the Indian consumers might not benefit as depreciation will negate the impact. The depreciating rupee will add further pressure on the overall domestic inflation and since India is structurally an import intensive country, as reflected in the high and persistent current account deficits month after month, the domestic costs will rise on account of rupee depreciation. Exchange rate risk also drives away foreign investors which in turn depreciates the local currency. Indian Rupee is currently caught in this vicious cycle; it will have to find a stable level to regain investors’ confidence. The depreciating rupee has serious effects on the external debt...
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...annualized 1999–2008 growth rate for Tamilnadu (9.9), Gujarat (9.6%), Haryana (9.1%), or Delhi (8.9%) were significantly higher than for Bihar (5.1%), Uttar Pradesh (4.4%), or Madhya Pradesh (6.5%). India is the tenth-largest economy in the world and the third largest by purchasing power parity adjusted exchange rates (PPP). On per capita basis, it ranks 140th in the world or 129th by PPP. The economic growth has been driven by the expansion of services that have been growing consistently faster than other sectors. It is argued that the pattern of Indian development has been a specific one and that the country may be able to skip the intermediate industrialization-led phase in the transformation of its economic structure. Serious concerns have been raised about the jobless nature of the economic growth. Favorable macroeconomic performance has been a necessary but not sufficient condition for the significant reduction of poverty amongst the Indian population. The rate of poverty decline has not been higher in the post-reform...
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...INR Exchange Rate A Macroeconomic Analysis of Indian Rupee to U.S. Dollar Exchange rate is defined as “the rate in which one currency can be traded with another currency.” In other words, the amount of domestic currency which is required to buy one foreign currency is called an exchange rate. For example, it is represented as INR/USD, this implies how many US Dollars someone would need to buy one Indian Rupee. Exchange rate provides a clear indication of the health of the economy. The other macroeconomic indicators like the interest rate, inflation rate and industrial production, all have a strong influence on exchange rate as well. The policy issued by the monetary authorities and the government also play a major role in exchange rate movements. Exchange rate can be floating or pegged – floating exchange rate is determined by the market forces of demand and supply while pegged exchange rate is fixed at a specific rate determined by the government. The exchange rate facilitates smooth flow of goods and services among nations. The aim of this paper is to analyze the exchange rate between Indian Ruppe (INR) and United State Dollar (USD) over the five-year period ending in 2010. During this five-year period the United States experienced a recession, commonly referred to as the Great Recession, (2007-2009) as did most of the world. India however was not significantly impacted by the Great Recession. India’s exports did slow down though due to weaker demand from the...
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...Case Study Indian Rupee Crisis of 2013 Assignment 1. If oil prices stay at these levels, China and India would benefit the most because China is the second largest oil importer in the world. It will be able t consume more oil with the drop of prices. Oil accounts for a third of India’s imports. 2. Tapering in QE was attributing this strong inflationary force in India, threatening a BoP crisis. It was also argued that inflation was due to supply constraints. I think their inflation issues can be “solely” managed through monetary means. 3. Some of the measures RBI took during the 2008 financial crisis were, it sharply reduced policy rates and the CRR. The repo rate and CRR were reduced four times. The RBI also created a potential provision of primary liquidity of 5.6 trillion. Interest rates on foreign currency were raised deposits made by non-resident Indians were raised as well. These measures were taken in order to increase the supply of dollars in the foreign exchange market to devaluate the U.S dollar against the Indian rupee. 4. Tapering of QE announced in 2013 caused a depreciation of the Rupee because it led to weakening the dollar against the rupee because of the increased demand of the latter. This money was invested in India in the form of foreign direct investment; this happen in midst of weak corporate fundamentals and deteriorating economic issues. This had a huge impact in India, making it crash along with the bond market. 5. Weak BoP can affect...
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...Impact of Rupee Depreciation on Indian Economy 1. It would lead to high inflation. [1] 2. Lead to rise in fiscal deficit. [2] 3. The Indian import industry would also have to pay more in rupee terms for procuring their raw materials. [3] 4. Have a negative impact on Indian students and travelers abroad. [4] 5. A depreciating rupee is bound to offset the decrease in the international prices of commodities such as oil. 6. Will largely affect FOREX reserve. Remedial measures taken by RBI in case of Rupee Depreciation Here is a chronological series of measures taken by RBI since November 2011 to rise up currency. 1. External Commercial Borrowings (ECB) raised for Rupee outlays brought in. 2. Increase in all-in-cost ceiling for ECB 3. Deregulation of interest rates on NRE and NRO Accounts 4. Deregulation of ceiling rate on Export Credit 5. Increase in interest rate ceiling on FCNR Deposits 6. It directed exporters to convert 50% of their balances in Exchange Earners' Foreign Currency Account (EEFC) Accounts into rupees. 7. Limit for FII investment in G-secs increased by USD 5 Billion. Reasons for USD appreciation 1. United States exports are high; the buyers of these exports need its currency to pay for those exports. 2. Fed increased interest rates on deposits, people started depositing their currencies in the banks to earn that higher interest rate. 3. Employment...
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