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CLASH OF GENERATIONS- ECONOMY OF FUTURE

Clash of Generations- Economy of Future

Titans vs Olympians Mythology, History and Folklores have innumerable tales about the revolutionary clashes in ideologies, tumultuous transitioning of control, usurping power, tectonic economic shifts and a period of unrest and clamor during the cusp. The wax of Digital Native and wane of Generation X/ Baby Boomers heralds for another “Clash of Titans”. The Titans are finding a desperate way out of the byzantine financial models, spiraling debts, vagaries of stock markets and socio- economic crisis so that the posterity gets a better world to dwell in. And, at the same time there is an uneasy stir amongst the Olympians about the world that will be soon bequeathed to them.

A view into the Crystal ball The future looks bleak if not dark for the future generation. Some of the jittery statistics are: 1) The average debt on every individual/ Country will go down to further abysmal levels because of financial imbalance (OECD Economic outlook 2012, pp.191) 2) Energy prices will soar up because of the drying oil pool and ever increasing demand from developing nations. (Barkindo. M 2006) 3) Housing Prices will double by 2025 because of urbanization and inflation ( CEBR 2005) 4) Economic model for Government and welfare structures might crumble due to a dwindling beneficiary/contributor ratio (DeVoe. J.E. et al 2005) Definitely these numbers don’t augur well for the Marshall’s “Demand –Supply” curve. Entwined with the drying tap of cash inflow puts individual and states to the brink of precipice. On the brighter side people are coming with economic models to optimize the resources, integrate the supply chain, avoid leaks in the system and make resources economically viable. There is an impeding challenge lying ahead for the new generations but necessity drives inventions and innovations.

Sharing – The new mantra The “sharing economy” by definition includes the shared creation, production, distribution, trade and consumption of goods and services by different people and organization’s (Wikipedia The free encyclopedia, 2013). There are subtle variants of this concept – capitalistic, not- for Profit, gift, and barter. Each variation carters to different stakeholders and deeply entrenched concept of optimizing makes the ecosystem profitable. The concept of Sharing has been pertinent since the days of Egyptian civilization and epitomized in the form of Library of Alexandria where the entire fountainhead of knowledge was accessible to the state. In the early 21st century the idea gathered steam with the advent of technology and open - source 1

Clash of Generations- Economy of Future movement spearheaded by proponents like Linus Torvalds and Richard Stallman (father of Linux and UNIX). However the catalysts were success of YouTube, Wikipedia, Android and Mozilla, where people started contributing and owning the entire ecosystem. The experience of sharing with collaborators has become a new way to live life for less, whilst enriching it with a personal human connection. The tendency to rent over ownership (and all its byproducts, costs and responsibilities) exemplifies a generally enjoyable and flexible mode of living and thereby expressing the mindset of consumers. People’s belief in sharing is becoming stronger with every passing day and the generation could see the perceived benefits of collaborating.

Evolution- Shared economy ‘Key to the theory of evolution by natural selection is new trait variations that arise spontaneously and make an organism more competitive in the struggle for survival.’ (Darwin C 1859) The shared –economy is a natural choice of human existence and aligns with the principles of Evolution. 1) Variation in Behavior: The digital revolution and other technological advancement resulted into a rapidly changing behavior. It has metamorphosed the way we commute, communicate, read, entertain, work and travel. Shared economy seems to be the natural order for evolution where people are travelling in Zipcars and expressing themselves in Collaborative platforms (LinkedIn, Facebook and Twitter). Education has taken a new meaning with podcasts; webcasts and elearning are becoming an order of the day. The web portals- Wikipedia, Kindle have replaced the age old libraries and structures. People have statistics and information at the press of a button. Mode of entertainment is changing: owning tapes, cd’, flash-drives are the thing of past. Music and movies are available and can be streamed anytime, anywhere (courtesy Spotify, Netflix, YouTube). Online Poker is challenging the big daddies of gambling and one can play a game of chess with someone from Russia sitting on the other side of the planet. The world economy moved from an age old agricultural to 19th century manufacturing economy. The 20th century belonged to service economy and Collaboration holds the key to future. The new jobs would be predominantly driven by crowd sourcing, crowd funding and collaboration. 2) Inheritance: The traits of shared economy are based on core values beneficial for the species at large. a. Sustainability – Optimal use of resources means less wastage, pollution and lowering unnecessary consumption ‘Build the best product, cause no unnecessary harm, use business to inspire and implement solutions to the environmental crisis’― Patagonia’s Mission Statement Organizations are looking forward for sustainable models where focus is on recycle, reuse and repair. The trend will soon move to Sustainable value added (SVA) instead of Environmental value added (EVA) (Figge F & Hahn T 2004); where the corporates are 2

Clash of Generations- Economy of Future ready to move from a realm of high profitability to lower margins with a high sustainability index. Individuals and corporates are getting more responsible to their commitment to nature and posterity. b. Efficiency: Matching underutilized resources assets with potential users decrease the variable costs for each transaction. This adds more efficiency to the process and in turn creates more value for the product. From empty houses, parked cars, unused appliances, luxury bags, camping gear; maximum value is derived once the object is up for grabs. c. Welfare state and happiness– The feeling of sharing gets ingrained in the consumer and the supplier in a shared economy. The services are tailor made as the suppliers are empathetic to the end users. The pleasure of reducing carbon credits and reputation of being a green person is weighed more than dollars saved.

3) Growth of population/survival: The ever growing population, change in demographics, low infant mortality, longevity of humans will strain the existing resources. Over the period man has been a profligate son of Mother Nature, consuming resources apocalyptically. There has been a decrease in fresh water, fossil fuels, pasture lands, forests and a detrimental increase in pollution, carbon emissions and global warming. With the population increasing in few years there will be scarcity of food, clothes, and energy. It will be a battle of survival and scraping through the barrel to sustain. Shared economy will be more of a necessity rather an option in the ensuing years.

Disruption to the Existing models 1) A new kid in the block – All the Behemoths are finding new entrants in their segment. The existing players are already finding “Shared- Economy” model the next in thing. The success of Zipcars, investment of $13 million by General motors in relay rides underline the facts. The likes of Hertz and their existing model of renting cars is under threat for sure. 2) Jobs – The world was already globalized, when jobs and manufacturing were outsourced. The traditional jobs are being eliminated and technology/robots are replacing many of those.Knowledge workers will have to keep reinventing themselves in faster cycles so that they do not become obsolete. There would be a rise in portfolio careers where individuals work on projects and human capital availability is ‘on-demand’ (Gaskin K & Gorenflo N 2010). This increases the financial flexibility, promotes freelancing and micro-entrepreneurs. 3) Currencies – The old world currency is reshaping. New ways of transaction such as Bit Coin and rewards are replacing plastic and mint money. The other alternatives to currencies are services, material items, reputation and social reach in return for the contribution to shared economy.

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Clash of Generations- Economy of Future
Detrimental Forces against Shared Economy – The Grind 1) Disruption in existing regulations: The likes of “Airbnb” have struggled with regulatory barriers and legal battles. With a growing market and peer to peer network a lot of laws around tax, insurance and legality are flouted or still remain blurred. 2) Lack of trust between collaborators: This has been one of the key challenges since inception. Mishandling of car, damage to property, virus to the network are some of the common ones. As a counter measure, the cars and property are being insured in advance. An exponential growth will need better processes in place to win the trust of collaborators. 3) Benchmarking of quality and collaborators: The product and service quality will never be consistent. A common yardstick has to be used for all services. Similarly, the collaborators should have a credibility and credit score. A higher score and rating makes the provider and the consumer more favorable for future transaction. 4) Incumbent business see sharing as threat to existing business models: The old economy corporates are keen on holding their turf and have dragged the new ones to long legal battles (Viacom International Inc v Youtube Inc (2013), No. 07, CIV 2103). Xbox prevents users from playing used games. 5) Failed startups: The failing startups shake the faith of the collaborators. Models like “Living – Social” and Groupon haven’t done very well in terms of profitability. The success of such players will up the ante against old school models.

Future of Shared Economy: Fortune at the bottom of pyramid: Currently the focus is only on the urban areas on defined services, but there is another 70 % of people staying in non- urban areas and has immense potential: 1) Agriculture: The existing “Shared economy” is just the tip of an iceberg. There are vast opportunities in rural sectors. Ploughing, farming – equipment, irrigation machinery and other tools can be used as a part of the shared pool. This helps the farmers to get the state of art equipment and reduces the cost of ownership. In developing and third world countries this might be a game changer. 2) Healthcare: The 200 K devices can be mobilized across adjoining areas to diagnose and treat individuals. Aided by economies to scale, insurance and hybrid models healthcare will become cheaper and accessible. The success of Devi Shetty’s – cardiac surgery model is a harbinger of brighter things to come. (Smith R 2012) 3) Energy – Smaller grids with renewable energy (solar and wind) will replace the fossil fuels. Clusters of 10-15 houses will own the small power plants. The cost of production from green fuels is negligible. The communities share the cost of infrastructure instead of individuals owning it. 4

Clash of Generations- Economy of Future
4) Finance and community credit: Microfinance and community credit scores will be the new buzz word. The Financial institutions will have to redefine the instruments to cater to these needs and in turn empower communities to invest for larger good. Some of the prime examples are community loans for fishing trawlers, windmills and tractors.

The Road ahead “Information Symmetry” has been the key innovation and gift from Gen Y. This has empowered all the sections of society with ubiquitous power of knowledge. Economic logic is too compelling to embrace the concept of shared economy. Social taboos around ownership are breaking and ad-hoc alliances are order of the day to get maximum economic efficiency. The Olympians – next generation will eventually take over the world bestowed to them. There are challenges to meet and collaborate; share and harmony will be the new bastions of a strong world. As a process of natural selection they will lay down their financial models, way to survive, subsist and then flourish or perish. For the human race, times were never so daunting and pressing. The vision is blurred; rays are crepuscular, mind reels– it’s very hard to say – “Is it twilight or a new Dawn? “

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Clash of Generations- Economy of Future
References

1. Anonymous 2012, "MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM SCENARIOS FOR GLOBAL GROWTH AND IMBALANCES", Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.OECD Economic Outlook, vol. 2012, no. 1, pp. 191. 2. Barkindo. M 2006, ‘Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’, Oil outlook to 2025, Speeches, 23 April 2006, . 3. DeVoe JE, Dodoo MS, Phillips RL Jr, Green LA 2005, ‘Who will have health insurance in the year 2025?’, Web Publication, Am Fam Physician, 15 November 2005, 72(10):1989, http://www.graham-center.org/online/graham/home/publications/onepagers/2005/op40insurance-2025.html 4. Darwin, C 1859, On the origin of species by means of natural selection, or the preservation of favoured races in the struggle for life. New York: D. Appleton. 5. Figge, F. & Hahn, T. 2004, "Sustainable Value Added—measuring corporate contributions to sustainability beyond eco-efficiency", Ecological Economics, vol. 48, no. 2, pp. 173-187. 6. Gaskin K & Gorenflo N 2010, ‘The New Sharing Economy’, Lattitude 42/Shareable, 1 June 2010, < http://www.shareable.net/blog/the-new-sharing-economy >. 7. Halushka, A 2005, Centre for economics and business research, Housing Futures 2025, July 2005 < http://www.academia.edu/2217505/Housing_Futures_2025> 8. Patagonia Inc, 1973, Patagonia mission statement, viewed 1 February 2014, < http://www.patagonia.com/us/patagonia.go?assetid=2047>. 9. Pathiraja, F & Wilson M.C., 2011, ‘The rise and rise of the portfolio career’, BMJ Careers; doi, 19 January 2011, http://careers.bmj.com/careers/advice/view-article.html?id=20001807. 10. Smith, R 2012, ‘Lessons from the Henry ford of health care’, Aljazeera Publishing, last modified 10 May 2012, http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/indianhospital/2012/05/201251133240460158.ht ml. 11. Viacom International Inc v Youtube Inc (2013), No. 07, CIV 2103. 12. Wikipedia, The free encyclopedia, 2013, ‘Sharing Economy’, wiki article, 27 May 2013, last modified 31 January 2014, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharing_economy

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