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Vývoj a význam BRIC vo svetovej ekonomike
ÚVOD
Koniec studenej vojny so sebou priniesol významné zmeny v rozložení moci vo svete. Rozpad Sovietskeho zväzu so sebou priniesol zánik bipolárneho rozdelenia sveta a jedinou veľmocou vychádzajúcou víťazne z tohto obdobia sa stali Spojené štáty americké. V ďalších rokoch sa stávajú dominantným štátom na medzinárodnom poli a po teroristických útokoch 11. septembra 2001 sa stále častejšie hovorí dokonca o unilaterálnom svetovom poriadku.
Avšak od vypuknutia ekonomickej krízy v roku 2008, svetovej politike opäť dominuje predovšetkým téma ekonomická. Táto dominancia však zďaleka neznamená, že by problematika moci a jej rozloženia v systéme stratila na význame. Práve naopak. Mnoho odborníkov už dlhšiu dobu upozorňuje na to, že prehliadanie tejto problematiky, ktorá tvorí základy každého moderného medzinárodného systému, môže spôsobiť v budúcnosti podstatné problémy. Napr. Cohen vo svojej publikácii „Geopolitical Realities“ upozorňuje na hrozbu, že „príliš veľký dôraz na tému, ktorá je síce aktuálna, ale je lokálneho alebo krátkodobého rozsahu, môže byť v dlhodobom meradle kontraproduktívne.“ Svoje tvrdenie zdôvodňuje tým, že takéto správanie môže: „maskovať omnoho dôležitejšie geopolitické sily a štruktúry, ktoré ovplyvňujú procesy globálnej rovnováhy“ (Cohen, s.2). V súvislosti s možnou zmenou tohto poriadku v budúcnosti, sa hovorí o 4 štátoch, Brazília, Rusko, India a Čína (tzv. BRIC), ktoré majú svoje záujmy a stále viac tiež prostriedky k dosiahnutiu týchto záujmov (Ikenberry, Wright, 2008, s. 4), ktoré by mohli ohroziť doterajšiu americkú dominanciu.
V práci chcem upriamiť pozornosť na zmeny v rozložení moci medzi jednotlivými hráčmi medzinárodného systému a potenciál týchto zmien ovplyvniť podobu medzinárodného systému. Na jednej strane sa zameriam na problematiku mocenského úpadku dominantného aktéra medzinárodného systému, Spojených štátov amerických, a na strane druhej na rastúci mocenský potenciál ďalších aktérov systému, Indie a Číny.
Pokúsim sa načrtnúť ako by presuny moci v trojuholníku Spojené štáty americké - Čína - India mohli ovplyvniť podobu vzťahov medzi týmito mocnosťami a súčasne sa pokúsiť odhadnúť aké dôsledky by to mohlo mať pre región Ázie, respektíve celý medzinárodný systém.

ZÁVER

Medzinárodné prostredie je dynamickým priestorom, v ktorom často dochádza k zmenám v mocenských potenciáloch jeho aktérov. Konkrétna oblasť záujmu tejto práce bolo skúmanie, či na pozadí zmien v rozložení moci v systéme môžeme do budúcna očakávať zo strany Spojených štátov amerických snahu o nadviazanie strategického partnerstva s ďalším významným aktérom systému, aby bolo zabránené Číne stať sa dominantnou mocnosťou. Ako takýto potenciálny partner Spojených štátov bola identifikovaná práve India.
Zo zozbieraných teoretických poznatkov som dospela k názoru, že Spojené štáty americké, ako dominantná mocnosť systému, sa síce nenachádzajú v priamom úpadku moci, avšak dochádza k tzv. relatívnemu úpadku moci Spojených štátov. Toto znamená, že Spojené štáty naďalej ostávajú najsilnejším aktérom medzinárodného systému, zároveň však dochádza k rýchlemu nárastu moci ďalších aktérov. Emancipácia ďalších aktérov v medzinárodnom prostredí potom spôsobuje pokles americkej mocenskej dominancie a vplyvu Spojených štátov vo svetových záležitostiach.
Nárast moci je viditeľný predovšetkým v prípade Číny, ktorá sa počas troch dekád dokázala dostať z pozície takmer rozvojovej krajiny do pozície svetovej veľmoci prvej kategórie. Na základe čínskeho mocenského potenciálu bolo dokonca zistené, že Čína disponuje dostatočným mocenským potenciálom na to, aby mohla v budúcnosti konkurovať Spojeným štátom na pozíciu dominantnej svetovej mocnosti.
Dostatočný mocenský potenciál v kombinácii so zisteniami týkajúcimi sa konfliktnosti čínskych a amerických národných záujmov potom činí z Číny potenciálneho vyzývateľa súčasného medzinárodného poriadku.
Či sa však Čína skutočne stane vyzývateľom súčasného medzinárodného systému a bude sa snažiť zmeniť jeho podobu, do značnej miery závisí na Spojených štátoch amerických samotných a ich postoji k Číne v dobe pred dosiahnutím mocenskej parity.
Pokiaľ Spojené štáty americké budú praktikovať politiku tzv. „engagementu“ a snažiť sa už teraz Čínu zapojiť čo najviac do súčasného svetového usporiadania či prípadnej svetovej inštitúcie a čiastočne ju reformovať tak, aby viac vyhovovala predstavám ázijskej veľmoci, potom čínskym záujmom nemusí byť rozbúranie súčasného medzinárodného systému.
Na druhej strane, pokiaľ by USA zvolili politiku zadržiavania tzv. „containmentu“, zvýši sa riziko začiatku vzájomného súperenia, ktoré môže v najhoršom prípade vyvrcholiť až vojnou o postavenie dominantného štátu v medzinárodnom systéme.
Vzhľadom k súčasnej podobe vzťahov USA a Číny, kde na jednej strane existuje výrazná konfliktnosť záujmov v ideologickej, hodnotovej rovine a zahraničnopolitickej rovine a na druhej strane čiastočná komplementarita záujmov v ekonomickej rovine vyplývajúca zo silnej previazanosti ekonomík oboch krajín, však ani jedna z týchto variant pre USA nie je príliš výhodná.
Z týchto zistení vyplýva, že jedinou stratégiou, ktorá dáva zmysel v situácii, kde existuje geopolitická rivalita súčasne s ekonomickou interdependenciou, je vyvažovanie čínskej moci. Toto vyvažovanie môže prebiehať dvoma spôsobmi. Po prvé využitím vlastného mocenského potenciálu alebo po druhé využitím mocenského potenciálu tretieho aktéra, ktorý má rovnaký záujem na vyvažovaní moci Číny ako USA.
Tu potom do mozaiky ideálne zapadá budovanie vzťahu s Indiou, ktorá disponuje obrovským mocenským potenciálom podobne ako Čína. Okrem mocenského potenciálu schopného vyvažovať moc Číny existuje medzi USA a Indiou tiež výrazná komplementarita záujmov.
Čo sa týka tejto komplementarity, je tu definujúcim faktorom práve Čína, respektíve zdielaný záujem oboch aktérov zabrániť ďalšiemu nárastu jej moci a dosiahnutie hegemonického postavenia v ázijskom regióne. Ázijský región je regiónom, kde ležia vitálne národné záujmy oboch aktérov a obaja aktéri teda majú záujem na vytvorení takej mocenskej štruktúry v regióne, ktorá im umožní ich záujmy napĺňať.
Z uvedeného dôvodu USA výrazným spôsobom investujú do podpory nárastu indickej moci. Ako uvádza Tellis (rok, s.) : „podpora rastu indickej moci ostáva základným americkým záujmom…[nakoľko] je tým najlepším spôsobom ako do budúcna zabrániť čínskej dominancii v Ázii bez ohrozenia ziskov zo vzájomného obchodu, na ktorých sú Spojené štáty americké do značnej miery závislé.“
Navyše udržanie rovnováhy moci v Ázii je kľúčové pre udržanie amerického postavenia najsilnejšieho aktéra medzinárodného systému. USA si toto určite uvedomujú, a práve preto sa snažia o nadviazanie intenzívnych vzťahov s Indiou. (kľúčová v tomto smere bola predovšetkým vláda prezidenta Busha, počas ktorej bolo odštartovaných mnoho iniciatív zameraných na nadviazanie či prehĺbenie indicko-americkej spolupráce.
Mimoriadnu dôležitosť najmä v symbolickej rovine malo naštartovanie spolupráce v jadrovej oblasti, navzdory skutočnosti, že India nie je signatárom Zmluvy o nešírení jadrových zbraní a v minulosti úspešne jadrovú zbraň vyrobila a otestovala.
Okrem spolupráce v jadrovej oblasti bola medzi oboma krajinami nadviazaná intenzívna kooperácia tiež v bezpečnostnej oblasti, formou spoločných vojenských cvičení a obchodu s vojenskými technológiami a materiálom. Medzi oboma krajinami bola tiež naštartovaná intenzívna obchodná výmena a spolupráca v hospodárskej oblasti.
V nastolenom trende prehlbovania spolupráce s Indiou a podpore jej rastu do pozície regionálnej a globálnej veľmoci pokračuje aj súčasnej administratíva prezidenta Obamy, ktorá sama v súvislosti so vzťahom Indie a USA otvorene hovorí nielen o prehlbovaní spolupráce, ale o budovaní strategického partnerstva!
Na cestě k vybudování skutečného strategického partnerství mezi oběma zeměmi zbývá vyřešit několik překážek, jako např. otázku vztahů s Íránem, či ještě složitější otázku vztahů s Pákistánem, který pro Spojené státy představuje důležitého spojence ve válce proti terorismu, zatímco pro Indii úhlavního nepřítele. Celkově však v rámci odpovědi na hlavní výzkumnou otázku lze konstatovat, že potenciál k budování indicko-amerického strategického partnerství, na pozadí ústupu americké moci a vzestupu moci Číny, zde skutečně je, a je obrovský. A že tento potenciál do značné míry skutečně vyplývá právě ze snah omezit nárůst moci Číny.
Jak bylo zjištěno v analytické části této práce, zabránění nárůstu moci Číny však není jediným faktorem, který motivuje Spojené státy a Indii k navazování stále užší spolupráce. Mezi oběma státy existuje daleko širší komplementarita zájmů, přesahující kategorii moci. Jedná se o komplementaritu zájmů v ekonomické oblasti a především v oblasti ideologické a hodnotové, které znamenají výrazný kvalitativní posun oproti partnerství budovanému pouze na mocenském základě.
V této souvislosti se na závěr opět hodí slova A. Tellise, který se vyjádřil ve smyslu, že „obě strany [země] stále pouze kloužou po povrchu své potenciální spolupráce…[a že] příležitosti, které se před Spojenými státy a Indií otevírají, jsou neomezené.“
Pro mezinárodní systém by pak vývoj směrem ke strategickému partnerství Indie a Spojených států, znamenal zásadní změnu v jeho fungování. Touto změnou by byl především fakt, že stabilita mezinárodního systému by neležela pouze na bedrech a západních velmocí, tzn. Spojených států a evropských mocností, ale díl odpovědnosti spolu s možností ovlivňovat chod systému by se rozšířil na východ do asijského regionu.
Konkrétní důsledky takovéhoto vývoje pro podobu a fungování mezinárodního systému lze stěží odhadovat. Na obecné úrovni lze však na takovýto případný vývoj nahlížet ze dvou odlišných pohledů.
Na jedné straně lze tyto změny chápat jako rozmělňování moci mezi více aktérů, která může mít za důsledek zablokování celého systému. Na druhou stranu je však možné takovýto vývoj vnímat jako krok k reformě současného mezinárodního systému a jeho institucí, o jejíž potřebnosti se v posledních letech často diskutuje.

--------------------------------------------
[ 1 ]. Viz. prohlášení představitelů Obamovy administrativy či jeho samotného v kapitole 4.6.
[ 2 ]. „Both sides have only just scratched the surface of their potential cooperation…The opportunities available to the United States and India are truly boundless.“
Zdroj: Tellis, A. J.: A new friendship: U.S.-India relations, online text.

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...There are two main theories that dominate our world economy- capitalism and socialism. Reviewing the approaches these theories take to operating shows stark contrasts. While each system is founded on their own belief structure, they do borrow ideas from each other. Each party has been critical of the other for taking advantage of their own people. Taken in simple terms there are three main ideas that are the foundation of each system- ownership, pricing, and profitability. In a capitalist economy businesses are owned by individual people, while in a socialist economy businesses are owned by the public, read government. Socialist economies determine the prices of goods and services through a central committee and capitalists believe that supply and demand should drive the market. Some might describe a primary difference of these systems as capitalism is a “for profit” venture while socialism is a “not for profit” concept. Both economic theories have received criticism from their detractors. Capitalism is criticized for creating income inequalities that keep the poor, poor. In this system, the wealthiest individuals dominate the means of production and benefit exclusively from the profits of those ventures. Socialism limits people’s freedoms to choose where they live, work and even the way they are educated. With a system that is based on limited choices, and profitability seen as criminal, critics believe that socialists will find it difficult to keep up with the competition...

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