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Equity Analysis

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AFIN310 Equity Analysis Assignment
General Electric (GE) historic business model GE has a business model that has been successful over many recent decades. In GE’s Historical business model, Jack Welch and Jeff Immelt as executives for GE have been focused on trying to expand the business as well as improving performance internally. The key features to GE’s successful business model lies within their organizational culture, core competencies and specific strategies used. GE’s organizational culture is about individual achievement which provides everyone with opportunities to grow themselves as individual such as exercising their responsibilities, integrity and being more creative. GE’s core competencies adds value to the success of its business model as the GE selects best practices and implements them perfectly which will be beneficial to them while promoting future growth. Furthermore, GE aims to become the market leader for the sectors they are profitable in, such as their financial services sector where GE Capital has grown hugely.
Changes to the business model and strategy
GE focuses on innovating with new business models by listening to what their customers want such as having more flexibility achieved by converting capital investments to operating expenses. Changes have been made in relations to GE’s culture which focuses on providing them with a lean management, speed & competitiveness, commercial intensity and digital capability. These simplified changes are the source for improvement in GE’s operating performance. GE’s current strategy focuses on the areas that are important to shareholders. Strategic choices include getting out of consumer finance, being in market where they are leaders, building competitive advantage, creating shareowner value, building a unified team. By being in markets where they win, involves GE taking many actions such as recognizing infrastructure leader, aggressively repositioning portfolio, refocused and reduced size of GE capital. Another strategy is building a competitive advantage where GE has built out GE Store to create unique competitive advantage; this has helped them to expand their software & analytics product offerings based on Predix, growing their services order by 10% and industrial growth market orders by 9%, GE has also launch a big new product: H-turbine, LEAP engine which is one of the best engine available in the market. GE has created shareowner value by intensely focusing on gross margins and reducing cost; they have reduced industrial SG&A as a percentage of sales 190 basis points from 2013 and reduced corporate costs by approximately $1B. Lastly, GE strategy to build a unified team has helped to drive their culture, as well as their beliefs. In doing so, GE has changed its executive cash bonus program to align it more closely with key investor goals, including operating margin and free cash flow.
Financial items for GE ending 31 December 2014 a. No. of issued shares = 10,057 million b. Market Capitalization of GE = 274,027 million c. Enterprise Value = 743,242 million d. Return on equity = 11.21% e. Earnings per share (EPS) = $1.51 f. Net debt = 150,426 million g. Net debt to equity = 1.0993 h. Interest cover = 3.7960 i. Book value per share $13.85 j. Net tangible assets per share = $4.60
Forecast calendar 2015 EPS for GE
The forecasted calendar 2015 EPS for GE is 1.49 is based on the assumptions regarding its historical trend from 2012 to 2014. The sales of goods in 2012 to 2013 has decrease by a small percentage and in the years between 2013 and 2014 there was a huge increase in the sales of goods. By outweighing the small decrease and a huge increase in Sales of goods, GE sales of goods would remain in the positive figure which will equate to a 2% increase from 2014 in 2015. The sales of services throughout the year showed closely the same percentage increase between years, we would now assume the same increase from 2014 to 2015 would be 5.43%. Other Income being all kept the same; we assume in 2015 it will be the same. GECC revenue is 25% of GE’s total revenue, this is due to the face that GE has sold its financial services which decrease its company value. Looking at the Cost of goods sold (COGS), in 2015 would equate to 80% of sales of goods from past trend. The Cost of sale of services in 2015 would equate to about 66% of sales of services from past trend. The tax at 12% were kept the same from previous years, thus we assume the 2015 tax would be the same. There would be a 5.56% decrease in investment contracts from 2014 in 2015. Provisions for losses will be kept the same in 2015 as in previous years it did not change. In 2015, other costs would be decrease by 2.64% from other costs in 2014. Using historical trend from past data we can forecast the 2015 EPS for GE is 1.49.
PE valuation multiple for GE in respect of 2015 earnings
The PE valuation multiple would be would be given by the ratio of the current share price over Earnings per share. We will use this formula to calculating the PE valuation multiple for GE in determining the value of the company. In this example, we have forecasted that the EPS in 2015 for GE is 1.4 and the current share price for GE is 27.28. Using the formula above we can use this to determine the PE valuation multiple of GE which is given by current share price over earnings per share, in this case for GE, it is 27.28/1.4 = 19.486. The reason for this adopted multiple is to show how the market value of an asset relative to a key statistic that is assumed to relate to that value, not only that, this valuation multiple provides the quickest way to value a company and are useful in comparing similar companies.
Reasonable valuation per share for GE
A reasonable valuation per share can be somewhat determined by comparing the PE ratio across similar companies, in this case we have Companies such as MMM, Honeywell and GE. The PE ratios for the three companies are 21.6, 18.82 and 18.01 respectively. The average PE across the companies would be 20.21. A reasonable valuation per share can be calculated by taking the ratio of Earnings per share divided by the average PE across the companies, this valuation helps to compare the value per share across the three companies hence we divide by the average PE. In this case, the valuation per share for GE would simply be 1.4/20.21=28.294.
3 Significant risks to my assessed valuation in Q5
Strategic risks which relates to the company’s future business plans and strategies, the strategic risks includes risks associated with macro-environment, mergers and acquisition, intellectual property. Another risk includes Operational risk which relates to risks arising from systems, processes, people and external events that affect the operation of the business. Another significant risk is financial risks which relates to our ability to meet financial obligations and mitigate exposure to broad market risks, including volatility in foreign currency exchange rates and interest rates and commodity prices; credit risk; and liquidity risk. In assessing the valuation in Q5, it is required to know the value of GE’s earnings per share and to calculate GE’s earnings per share we would need to look at the figures on financial statements in the annual report; all three risk mentioned above impose risk which will affect the figures in the financial statement, for example, financial risk associated with different exchange rate might affect the sale of goods.

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