...Yale ICF Working Paper No. 02-04 November 21, 2002 PREDICTING THE EQUITY PREMIUM (WITH DIVIDEND RATIOS) Amit Goyal Goizueta Business School at Emory Ivo Welch Yale School of Management NBER This paper can be downloaded without charge from the Social Science Research Network Electronic Paper Collection: http://ssrn.com/abstract_id=158148 Predicting the Equity Premium (With Dividend Ratios)∗ Amit Goyal† Goizueta Business School at Emory and Ivo Welch‡ Yale School of Management and NBER November 21, 2002 Abstract Our paper suggests a simple recursive residuals (out-of-sample) graphical approach to evaluating the predictive power of popular equity premium and stock market time-series forecasting regressions. When applied, we find that dividend-ratios should have been known to have no predictive ability even prior to the 1990s, and that any seeming ability even then was driven by only two years, 1973 and 1974. Our paper also documents changes in the time-series processes of the dividends themselves and shows that an increasing persistence of dividend-price ratio is largely responsible for the inability of dividend ratios to predict equity premia. Cochrane (1997)’s accounting identity—that dividend ratios have to predict long-run dividend growth or stock returns— empirically holds only over horizons longer than 5–10 years. Over shorter horizons, dividend yields primarily forecast themselves. JEL Classification: G12, G14. ∗ Forthcoming: Management Science. The paper and its data...
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...PAWEL BILINSKI AND DANIELLE LYSSIMACHOU b1 The Risk Interpretation of the CAPM’s Beta: Evidence from a New Research Method This study tests the validity of using the CAPM beta as a risk control in cross-sectional accounting and finance research. We recognize that high risk stocks should experience either very good or very bad returns more frequently compared to low risk stocks, i.e. high risk stocks should cluster in the tails of the cross-sectional return distribution. Building on this intuition, we test the risk interpretation of the CAPM’s beta by examining if high beta stocks are more likely than low beta stocks to experience either very high or very low returns. Our empirical results indicate that beta is a strong predictor of large positive and large negative returns, which confirms that beta is a valid empirical risk measure and that researchers should use beta as a risk control in empirical tests. Further, we show that because the relation between beta and returns is U-shaped, i.e. high betas predict both very high and very low returns, linear cross-sectional regression models, e.g. Fama-MacBeth regressions, will fail on average to reject the null hypothesis that beta does not capture risk. This result explains why previous studies find no significant cross-sectional relation between beta and returns. Key words: Market beta; New research method; Empirical accounting and finance research. PAWEL BILINSKI (pawel.bilinski.1@city.ac.uk) and DANIELLE LYSSIMACHOU...
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...ft Beta Estimation Practice And Its Reliability Biasness Towards Aggressive Stocks: An Empirical Evidence From NSE * Dr. Neeraj Sanghi ** Dr. Gaurav Bansal INTRODUCTION While investing in a capital market, investors always have concern about the market movements or changes in the value of capital market index. This tendency of investors' behavior is related to a psychological factor that reveals that market movements and prices of stocks are closely related to each other. Upward / downward movement in market index gives trigger to the expectation of investors that the value of their holding would move accordingly. This is, more formally, known as systematic risk arising on account of economic wide uncertainties and explains the tendency of stock's price movement together with changes in market index. Systematic risk, also known as market risk, cannot be reduced through diversification of stocks' portfolio. Investors arc exposed to market risk even when they hold well diversified portfolio of securities. In finance literature, beta coefficient is a measurement statistic of systematic risk; it refers to the slope in a linear relationship fitted to data on the rate of return on a stoek and Ihc rate of return of the market (or market index). This usage stems from Sharpe's 1963 paper in Management Science. Beta is the stock's sensitivity to the market index: it is the degree (in percentage) by which the stock's relum lends to increase or decrease for every 1% increase or decrease...
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...Institute of Management Sciences Peshawar Bachelors in Business Studies Course Plan Course Title: Statistics for Business Instructor: Shahid Ali Contact Email shahid.ali@imsciences.edu.pk Semester/Duration: 16 Weeks Course objectives : To introduce students to the concepts of statistics and to equip them with analytical tools to be used in business decision making. The course is intended to polish the numeric ability of the students to identify business problems, describe them numerically and to provide intelligible solutions by data collection and inferential principles. Course pre-requisites Intermediate statistics Attendance Policy: Late arrivals are highly discouraged. Any student coming late to a class late by 5 minutes after the scheduled start time will be marked as absent for the day. The teacher reserves discretion, however, to allow or disallow any student, to sit in the class in case of late arrivals. Attendance is not be entertained once the attendance register is closed. Class Project Students will be divided in groups for a class project. Each group will have to nominate a group leader. The details of the project will be made available to the group leader. Class Presentations Each student will have to make at least one individual presentation and one group presentation in the class. The group presentation will be on the project explained earlier. The individual presentations will...
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...Regression Analysis (Spring, 2000) By Wonjae Purposes: a. Explaining the relationship between Y and X variables with a model (Explain a variable Y in terms of Xs) b. Estimating and testing the intensity of their relationship c. Given a fixed x value, we can predict y value. (How does a change of in X affect Y, ceteris paribus?) (By constructing SRF, we can estimate PRF.) OLS (ordinary least squares) method: A method to choose the SRF in such a way that the sum of the residuals is as small as possible. Cf. Think of ‘trigonometrical function’ and ‘the use of differentiation’ Steps of regression analysis: 1. Determine independent and dependent variables: Stare one dimension function model! 2. Look that the assumptions for dependent variables are satisfied: Residuals analysis! a. Linearity (assumption 1) b. Normality (assumption 3)— draw histogram for residuals (dependent variable) or normal P-P plot (Spss statistics regression linear plots ‘Histogram’, ‘Normal P-P plot of regression standardized’) c. Equal variance (homoscedasticity: assumption 4)—draw scatter plot for residuals (Spss statistics regression linear plots: Y = *ZRESID, X =*ZPRED) Its form should be rectangular! If there were no symmetry form in the scatter plot, we should suspect the linearity. d. Independence (assumption 5,6: no autocorrelation between the disturbances, zero covariance between error term and X)—each individual should be independent 3. Look at the correlation between two variables by drawing...
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...Author’s Name: Instructor: Course: Date: Executive Summary Evaluating investments risks’ and potential return is crucial for investors’ as a way of establishing the expected return for their portfolios. In that respect, the analysis has used the Darden Case on American Greetings and the analysis on the Company as an investment has been done with use of DCF model that uses the present value of the expected future cash-flows. In addition, the analysis has been done using the future cash-flows for the years 2012 to 2015. The company’s WACC has been established to be 0.11% given the risk-free rate of 0.05% and the Market rate of 11%. With that consideration, the enterprise values for the two scenarios including a bullish and bearish scenario have been calculated as $659.41 and $546.43 respectively, but which are identified as lower than the 2011 value of $714. However, the values still reflect a higher value for the company’s stock compared to the 2011 market price of $12.51. Thus, the company is undervalued by the market at the 2011 and has potential for a rise towards its fair price. In addition, the company has a relatively better credit rating by the credit rating agencies being an indication of its relative low risk. In conclusion, the company’s stock has been identified as a buy, and its fair price for the year 2011 has been estimated to be $18.64. American Greetings Analysis Company value depends on a number of factors. Those factors include the capital structure...
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...MBA Master of Business Administration International Finance & Financial Management ASSIGNMENT 2015– 2016 The questions in this assignment require some quantitative work and some interpretation. When answering the discussion questions you should try to make full use of the relevant theoretical propositions and concepts. The assignment should be undertaken in groups of four or five. All members of the group should participate in the development of the answers to all the questions. If individuals are not able to work on a group basis they can submit their own assignment, answering three instead of the four questions, and the marks will be adjusted appropriately. Question 1: Capstaff Ltd: A Capital Expenditure Decision Capstaff Ltd is a relatively small engineering company that manages to compete effectively with larger companies by adapting to changing market requirements and specialising in innovative products with limited markets. The products are sold to a wide range of companies, but most of its sales are to companies in the oil industry. On this basis it has maintained a high rate of return on capital employed in relation to the engineering sector as a whole. The latest product to be developed, a high pressure valve, has completed its testing stage and the company now has to decide on whether or not to invest in a production facility and a marketing programme. The work already undertaken on the product has cost £1.3 million and it is anticipated that...
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...Stochastic frontier analysis of the efficiency of Nigerian banks Abstract Using the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) the efficiency of Nigerian banks was analysed. The result of the study proved that there is inefficiency in the Nigerian banking system and that the level of inefficiency ranged from 0 to 19 per cent of total cost. The study was able to derive the individual bank's level of inefficiency. Put differently, the study was able to derive the individual bank's level of efficiency. I. INTRODUCTION In the last three decades, as bank regulators open their financial Industries for competition and liberalisation, many banks operated at a level that is less efficient and profitable leading to unsoundness or distress in the industry; thus generating concerns and worries among the bank stakeholders. There are a large number of studies which employ models to explain inter-bank differences in earnings, bank efficiency and continuous existence (failure) in the United States of America and other developed countries of the world. Similar studies have not been carried out using data from emerging markets like Nigeria especially when viewed against the background of the statement of Barltrop and McNaughton (1992) that financial analysis should be done within the context of the particular country and economic environment as each country has a different economic environment, different regulatory and legal environment, different commercial practices, different accounting...
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...Introduction and Background Kimi Ford is a portfolio manager at NorthPoint Group, a mutual-fund management firm. In July 2001, Ford considered buying shares of Nike, Inc., the well-known athletic shoe manufacturer. It would be prudent of Ford to base her assessment on Nike’s financial reports for 2001. Around the same time, Nike held an analysts’ meeting to disclose those financial results. They also addressed ways to revitalize the company, since share price was beginning to decline and revenues had plateaued at around $9 billion. Although Nike projected a rosy future, many analysts had mixed reactions to the projections. Ford was right to come up with her own forecast, seeing as the reactions ranged from too aggressive to growth opportunities. In order to completely analyze Nike and its possible place in the NorthPoint Large-Cap Fund, Ford needs to know Nike’s cost of capital. One of the most useful ways to measure the cost of capital is the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Theoretically, the optimal capital structure in the mix of types of financing that produces the lowest WACC. WACC is calculated by multiplying the cost of each type of financing a company uses, be it debt or the many types of equity, by their respective weights. It is the rate of return that a company needs to earn in order to satisfy the returns they have to pay out to debtholders and stockholders. The respective weight of each type of financing is determined by their percentage of total capital...
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...questions that students must answer. Rather, the case contains general guidance or concerns expressed by various parties that students should consider when developing their solutions. If you, as the instructor, want to convert this case to a directed case, and hence provide your students with very specific guidance questions, you can make available the applicable questions for this case contained in the Case Questions section of the online material for instructors. Purpose This case focuses on the estimation of the cost of capital for a business. There is minimal quantitative analysis required, but there are a significant number of conceptual issues that are addressed in the case. Complexity The calculations are not complex, but many of the issues merit a great deal of discussion and require a sound understanding of cost of capital principles. Model Description The model takes much of the busywork out of the case, so it enables students to spend more time on interpretation and evaluation. Like most case models, the student and instructor versions differ only in regards to the input data. The instructor’s version contains the complete base case inputs, while these inputs are zeroed out in the student version of the model. The model uses market data relevant to both the business’s debt and equity as inputs to estimate the costs of debt and equity. Both YTM and YTC costs of debt are estimated, while the cost of equity is estimated using the CAPM, DCF, and Debt cost + Risk...
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...Stock Market Analysis: MANG 6221 Professor Dr. Marta Degl'Innocenti Assignment Length: 3,155 words (Excluding Endnote, Graph, Appendix and Reference) By Group Niagara Waterfall Thanat Pojkasemsin 25390422 Kanchana Leeratsatien 25088866 Leena Phaerakkakit 25712756 Synthia Manik 25665286 Jingwen Liu 25402323 Part A Introduction With the development of financial market, the technical analysis tools play an important role for the security evaluation. According to Penman (2010), investors estimate the stock future prices and trends by collecting and estimate the past prices and information. However, there are some conflict points on the momentum strategies performance, and it is a technical tool with multiple economy factors needs to be considered into. Why do momentum strategies exist? Refer to both behavioural and market-based argumentations. Momentum strategies are the stock analysis stool exists in the financial evaluation process, also in funds and currency investment. According to Chan, Jegadeesh, and Lakonishok J (1996) said, "it is a strategy that buying stocks in a high returns over the past three to twelve months, and selling those that had the poor returns over the same period." In the other words, the outperform stock will remain well...
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... |2 | |7. |Executive Communication |6 | |8. |National Economic Planning – I (Presentation Only) |2 | |9. |National Economic Planning - II |2 | BUSINESS STATISTICS (As per University Syllabus) UNIT 1. BUSINESS STATISTICS - WHAT AND WHY? INTRODUCTION • Definition of statistics • Five stages of statistical investigation - Collection - Organization - Presentation - Analysis - Interpretation • Functions of statistics • Limitations of statistics COLLECTION OF DATA • Primary data: use and...
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...6330 Fax: (813) 974 3030 David P. Simon∗ Dept of Finance Bentley College Waltham, MA 02452 Dsimon@bentley.edu. Tele: (781) 891 2489 Fax: (781) 891 2982 July 1, 2002 ∗ Corresponding author. We thank the Hughey Center for Financial Services at Bentley College for the data and the second author thanks Bentley College for a summer research grant. The usual disclaimer applies. Are TIPS the “Real” Deal?: A Conditional Assessment of their Role in a Nominal Portfolio Abstract This paper documents predictable time-variation in the real return beta of U.S. Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS) and in the Sharpe ratios of both indexed and conventional bonds. The conditional mean and volatility of both bonds and their conditional correlation are first estimated from predetermined variables. These estimates are then used to compute conditional real return betas and Sharpe ratios. The time-variation in real return betas and the correlation between TIPS and nominal bonds coincides with major developments in the fixed income market. One implication of this predictability is that portfolio managers can assess more efficiently the risk of investing in TIPS versus conventional bonds. Conditional Sharpe ratios indicate that over the sample period, TIPS had superior volatility-adjusted returns relative to nominal bonds. This finding is striking in view of the absence of a major inflation scare during the sample period from February 1997 through August 2001, but is loosely...
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...SUBJECT REVIEW Regression Methods in the Empiric Analysis of Health Care Data GRANT H. SKREPNEK, PhD ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE: The aim of this paper is to provide health care decision makers with a conceptual foundation for regression analysis by describing the principles of correlation, regression, and residual assessment. SUMMARY: Researchers are often faced with the need to describe quantitatively the relationships between outcomes andpre d i c t o r s , with the objective of ex p l a i n i n g trends, testing hypotheses, or developing models for forecasting. Regression models are able to incorporate complex mathematical functions and operands (the variables that are manipulated) to best describe the associations between sets of variables. Unlike many other statistical techniques, regression allows for the inclusion of variables that may control for confounding phenomena or risk factors. For robust analyses to be conducted, however, the assumptions of regression must be understood and researchers must be aware of diagnostic tests and the appropriate procedures that may be used to correct for violations in model assumptions. CONCLUSION: Despite the complexities and intricacies that can exist in re gre s s i o n , this statistical technique may be applied to a wide range of studies in managed care settings. Given the increased availability of data in administrative databases, the application of these procedures to pharmacoeconomics and outc o m e s assessments may result in...
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...Capital Asset Pricing Model: The Indian Context R Vaidyanathan T he Capital Asset Pricing model is based on two parameter portfolio analysis model developed by Markowitz (1952). This model was simultaneously and independently developed by John Lintner (1965), Jan Mossin (1966) and William Sharpe (1964). In equation form the model can be expressed as follows: E (Ri) = Rf + (i [E(rm) – Rf] = Rf +(im / (m (E(Rm) – Rf / (m) Where E(Ri) is expected return on asset i, Rf is the risk-free rate of return, E(Rm) is expected return on market proxy and (i; is a measure of risk specific to asset i. This relationship between expected return on asset i and expected return on market portfolio is also called the security market line. If CAPM is valid, all securities will lie in a straight line called the security market line in the E(R), (i frontier. The security market line implies that return is a linearly increasing function of risk. Moreover, only the market risk affects the return and the investor receive no extra return for bearing diversifiable (residual) risk. The set of assumptions employed in the development of the CAPM can be summarized as follows [Sears and Trennepohl (1993)]: 1. Investors are risk-averse and they have a preference for expected return and a dislike for risk. 2. Investors make investment decisions based on expected return and the variances of security returns, i.e. two-parameter utility function...
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