...recession India had been growing robustly at an annual average rate of 8.8 per cent for the past five years (2003-04 to 2007-08). This was higher than the potential growth rate of output as estimated by the IMF. The strong Indian growth story, based on its structural strengths of a young population, skilled manpower, rising savings and investment rates, large unfulfilled domestic demand and globally competitive firms attracted significant investor attention in recent years. Recent high rates of economic growth have been the result of high levels of investment, rise in productivity supported by technological up-gradation and greater integration with global flows of trade, finance and technology. The challenge is to sustain these high growth rates while also preventing an unacceptable rise in income and spatial inequities and also eliminating absolute poverty in a given time frame. The answer to this challenge is in raising India’s potential rate of output growth by removing the binding constraints. We have also estimated the potential growth rate for India during the last decade based on HP filter technique (Hodrick and Prescott, 1997) and found that in the last three years, India had been growing above its potential growth rate. Figure 6: Potential GDP Growth and Output Gap (1997-08 to 2007-08) Note: Based on HP filter technique as proposed by Hodrick and Prescott (1997). Fears of over-heating of the economy prompted the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to begin...
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...India too has been impacted by the crisis – and by much more than it was suspected earlier. The four major questions that have been raised are: * Why has India been hit by the crisis? * How has India been hit by the crisis? * How have we responded to the challenge? * What is the outlook for India? Why Has India Been Hit By the Crisis? There is, at least in some quarters, dismay that India has been hit by the crisis. This dismay stems from two arguments. The first argument goes as follows. The Indian banking system has had no direct exposure to the sub-prime mortgage assets or to the failed institutions. It has very limited off-balance sheet activities or securitized assets. In fact, our banks continue to remain safe and healthy. So, the enigma is how can India be caught up in a crisis when it has nothing much to do with any of the maladies that are at the core of the crisis. The second reason for dismay is that India's recent growth has been driven predominantly by domestic consumption and domestic investment. External demand, as measured by merchandize exports, accounts for less than 15 per cent of our GDP. The question then is, even if there is a global downturn, why should India be affected when its dependence on external demand is so limited? The answer to both the above frequently-asked questions lies in globalization. First, India's integration into the world economy over the last decade has been remarkably rapid. Integration into the world implies...
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...In modern world, financial crisis at world level can be traced back to 1920’s, when economic depression of 1929 occurred. It is said that history repeats itself. Today’s world financial crisis which started with mortgage crisis is only one aspect of history. Crisis began with sub-prime lending crisis and whole financial system was engulfed. Sub-prime crisis refers to the crisis faced by the mortgage companies that were in loaning business that due to adverse situations ran in trouble. As a result the number of defaulters increased resulting in huge bad debts for the mortgagee companies. Several of world’s best managed financial institutions went bankrupt and rests are dying for bail out. The world demand cycle is heading south and its impact is visible in world petroleum prices and auto manufacturer’s recent outcry for bailout. The liquidity is engulfing the whole world and taking the shape of financial famine. In the period of strong global growth growing capital flow and prolonged stability market participant sought higher output without an adequate calculation of the risks and failed to exercise proper due diligence. Weak underwriting standards, unsound risk management practices increasingly complex and opaque financial products and consequent excessive leverage combined to create vulnerabilities in the system. At the same time what looked as brisk-effervescence is financial market ended up in becoming alarm ringer for a greater catastrophe in the coming years....
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...EUROZONE CRISIS ABSTRACT Euro crisis was not fortunate. It was something that could be avoided if proper care was taken. The European sovereign debt crisis has emerged out of a situation that has made it difficult or impossible for some countries in the euro area to re-finance their government debt without the assistance of third party. It was not only the government sector that lead to this crisis but major cause of it was the private sectors taking up too much of loans. The report also states the impact of euro zone crisis on the world and the India. The Eurozone crisis is systemic in nature. It is a result of policy failures in the way European Monetary Union (EMU) was designed, constructed and implemented. In particular, the crisis is a consequence of the failure to put in place certain necessary institutional components. INTRODUCTION The global economy has experienced slow growth since the U.S. financial crisis of 2008-2009, which has exposed the unsustainable fiscal policies of countries in Europe and around the globe. Greece, which spent heartily for years and failed to undertake fiscal reforms, was one of the first to feel the pinch of weaker growth. When growth slows, so do tax revenues – making high budget deficits unsustainable. The result was that the new Prime Minister George Papandreou, in late 2009, was forced to announce that previous governments had failed to reveal the size of the nation’s deficits. In truth, Greece’s debts were so large that they actually...
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...JOURNALISM NEHA J. BHATIA #03 TYBMM –JOURNALISM JAI HIND COLLEGE, MUMBAI [THE AIR INDIA FINANCIAL CRISIS] The role of government funding in the national carrier’s financial crunch. NICHE JOURNALISM: THE AIR INDIA CRISIS NEHA J. BHATIA, TYBMM 2012 INDEX HISTORY OF CIVIL AVIATION … 3 CIVIL AVIATION … 3 AIR INDIA … 4 FINANCIAL CRUNCH … 5 LEASING POLICIES … 6 IMMETHODICAL MERGERS … 7 RESTORATION EFFORTS … 10 SUGGESTED CORRECTIVE MEASURES … 13 THE CASE FOR DOMESTIC AIRLINES IN THE COUNTRY … 14 CONCLUSION … 15 GLOSSARY … 16 BIBLIOGRAPHY … 18 2 NICHE JOURNALISM: THE AIR INDIA CRISIS NEHA J. BHATIA, TYBMM 2012 HISTORY OF CIVIL AVIATION The history of Indian civil aviation began with its first domestic air route between Karachi and Delhi in December 1912. It was opened by the Indian Air Services in collaboration with the UK based Imperial Airways as an extension of London-Karachi flight of the Imperial Airways. Without any backing from the Indian Government, Tata Sons Ltd., the first Indian airline, started a regular airmail service between Karachi and Madras three years later. During the time of independence, nine air transport companies were carrying both air cargo and passengers in the Indian Territory. To further strengthen the aviation sector of India, the Indian Government and Air India (earlier Tata Airline) set up a joint sector company, Air India International in early 1948. And the nationalization of Indian Airlines (IA) in 1953 brought...
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...www.capitalvia.com Global Research Limited IMPACT of GREECE White Paper - Impact of Greece Crisis Global Research Limited Introduction Historically, financial crisis tend to lead to sharp economic downturns, low government revenues, widening government deficits, high levels of debt, pushing many governments into defaults. This is called SOVEREGIN DEBT CRISIS. GREECE is currently facing this, it accumulated high levels of debt during the decade before the crisis, when capital markets were highly liquid. As the crisis has unfolded and there was liquidity crunch in world economy, Greece may no longer be able to rol over its maturing debt obligations. Build – Up To The Current Crisis Between 2001-2008, Greece reported budget deficits averaged 5% per year, compared to Eurozone average of 2%. Also, its current account deficits averaged to 9% per year compared to Eurozone average of 1% Greece funded these twin deficits by borrowing in international capital markets, leaving it with chronically high external debt (115% of GDP in 2009) Some of the facts which can be depicted from following charts : www.capitalvia.com 2 White Paper - Impact of Greece Crisis Global Research Limited How Country Debts And Budget Deficits Compare? Projected budget deficit for 2009 Budget deficit figs as % of GDP Debt as % of GDP UK 13% Greece 12.5% Spain 11.25% Ireland 54.3% 68.6% 112.6% 65.8% 10.75% 114.6% 5.3% Italy Germany 3.5% 74.3% Source:...
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...www.capitalvia.com G lobal Research Limited I MPACT of G REECE White Paper - Impact of Greece Crisis Global Research Limited Introduction Historically, financial crisis tend to lead to sharp economic downturns, low government revenues, widening government deficits, high levels of debt, pushing many governments into defaults. This is called SOVEREGIN DEBT CRISIS. GREECE is currently facing this, it accumulated high levels of debt during the decade before the crisis, when capital markets were highly liquid. As the crisis has unfolded and there was liquidity crunch in world economy, Greece may no longer be able to rol over its maturing debt obligations. Build – Up To The Current Crisis Between 2001-2008, Greece reported budget deficits averaged 5% per year, compared to Eurozone average of 2%. Also, its current account deficits averaged to 9% per year compared to Eurozone average of 1% Greece funded these twin deficits by borrowing in international capital markets, leaving it with chronically high external debt (115% of GDP in 2009) Some of the facts which can be depicted from following charts : www.capitalvia.com 2 White Paper - Impact of Greece Crisis G lobal Research Limited How Country Debts And Budget Deficits Compare? Projected budget deficit for 2009 Budget deficit figs as % of GDP Debt as % of GDP 68.6% UK 13% 112.6% Greece 12.5% 54.3% Spain 11.25% 65.8% Ireland 10.75% 114.6% Italy ...
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...India and the Global Economy 14 CHAPTER The big story of the last decade for India has been its arrival on the global scene. The Indian economy had broken free of the low-growth trap from the early 1980s. By the mid-1990s, following the economic reforms of 1991-3, India began to appear as a player of some significance in the global economy. Then, following the East Asian crisis of the late 1990s, and from the first years of the first decade of the 21st century there was no looking back. India’s exports began to climb, its foreign exchange reserves, which for decades had hovered around 5 billion dollars, rose exponentially after the economic reforms and in little more than a decade had risen to 300 billion dollars. Indian corporations that rarely ventured out of India were suddenly investing all over the world and even in some industrialized countries. When, in 2009, the Group of 20 (G-20) was raised to the level of a forum for leaders, India was a significant member of this global policy group. 14.2 The globalization of India has given rise to new opportunities but it has also brought with it new challenges and responsibilities. It means that the global economy can no longer be viewed from a spectator’s standpoint. What happens there has large implications for India. Every time there is a major financial crisis anywhere in the world, there is need to take brace position. And, in turn, the rise and fall of India’s growth rate has an impact on global growth and there...
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...VICTORIOUS TEAM Countries For The Project for the Period 2011 : 1] China 2] India 3] USA Team Members and Students IDS : Nikita Bhivate A2604 ( U.S.A.) Li Jianwei A2394 ( China ) Tingting Hao A2319 ( India ) MBA 531 International Financial Management. Prof. Jayant Kanitkar. INTRODUCTION : Introduction Of China : During the period from 2007 to 2011, the whole world has been suffering from global economic recession and financial crisis. From US subprime to EU sovereign debt crisis, China, as the second largest economy in the world, experienced internal and external economic impacts. In the year of 2007, China’s economic development reached its pick. With the expectation of CNY appreciation, hot money flooded into China. As a result of this, the price of investment asset surged up sharply. The housing price tripled, and the Shanghai stock index reached to a historical level of 6300 from less than 3000 with in one year. The wealth effect from the high investment asset price stimulated consumption. Moreover, China was keeping its high net exports trading volume and fixed asset investment. The GDP growth rate exceeded 10%. However, the financial bubble broke in the US, and a chain reaction directly affected China. In 2008, all economic indictors shown that China’s development slowed down. Stock market can be regarded as the forecaster of economic. The Shanghai stock index dropped to 1900 from 6300. Affected by recession in international...
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...affected by the current global crisis? How is it dealing with the situation? Be sure to address the monetary and fiscal policy of the government and the rescue package (if any) implemented by the government. This paper describes how government of India and RBI (Reserve bank of India, equivalent to Fed Reserve in US) tackled aftermath of global financial crisis in India. Effects of Global crisis Aftermath of Financial crisis was more prominent during 2008. As the global financial crisis began unfolding in the first nine months of 2008, foreign institutional investors pulled out close to $10 billion from India, dragging the capital market down with it. The liquidity crisis, coupled with the credit squeeze and a weak currency, hurt various sectors. Banks have reined in retail financing, affecting home and auto loans. Car loans account for 70% of consumer auto purchases now, down from 85% a year ago. Meanwhile, consumers are deferring other purchases while financiers have been logging a drop in loan disbursal rates At that time the Bombay Stock Exchange Index, or Sensex, tumbled 6% to a two-year low. For the first time in five years, the central bank cut the cash reserve ratio, the amount of funds that banks have to keep with the Reserve Bank of India by 50 basis points, to 8.5%, on Oct. 6, 2008. The same evening, the Securities & Exchange Commission of India eased some restrictions on foreign portfolio investors—such as registering in India before buying shares and limits...
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...for future. Globalization and liberalization have contributed a lot in making the entire world a close knit economic unit. In an interconnected global economy recession and economic turbulence in one part of the world has the potential to disrupt the economies of other countries in a major way. The economic slowdown in US economy in 2008 caused by the burst of housing bubble engulfed the entire world in its grip. This research paper aims to give a detailed account of US Recession-2008 and its impact on Indian Economy. The financial crisis has not only affected United States of America, but also European Union, U.K and Asia. The Indian Economy too has felt the impact of the crisis to some extent. Though it is difficult to quantify the impact of the crisis on India, it is felt that certain sectors of the economy would be affected by the spill over effects of the financial crisis. INTRODUCTION The current global financial crisis is rooted in the subprime crisis which surfaced over a year ago in the United States of America. During the boom years, mortgage brokers attracted by the big commissions, encouraged buyers with poor credit to accept housing mortgages with little or no down payment and without credit checks. A combination of low interest rates and large inflow of foreign funds during the booming years helped the banks to create easy credit conditions for many years. Banks lent money on...
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... along with the World Bank, (these two collectively known as the international financial institutions) towards the end of World War II, in 1944, as an attempt to defend the world from facing another financial crisis such that of the Great Depression (1930) and revive the damages caused by the war. The six goals and guideline principles...
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...PRESENTATION ON “GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS” SUBMITTED BY: M.ASWATHI ASHOK AND ANAGHA P.S CONTENTS * GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS * DIFFERENCE BETWEEN US/ EUROPE AND INDIA * RBI’S POLICY, RESPONSE AND IMPACT * LESSONS FROM THE CRISIS * MEDIUM- TERM ISSUES AND CHALLENGES GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS * Proximate causes & Fundamental causes * Current account balance * US monetary policy Policy 1: * Volatility in monetary policy in advanced economies. * Large volatility in capital flows to EMEs. Policy 2 : * US Monetary policy too loose during 2002-04; aggregate demand exceeded output; large current a/c deficit; mirrored in large surpluses in China and elsewhere. Policy 3 : * Large Fed cuts in 2007: strong boost to oil, other commodity and asset prices * Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies * Worsening Global Economic Outlook DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FINANCIAL CRISIS IN US/EUROPE AND INDIA * What has not happened in India : * No bank losses threatening capital * No bank credit crunch * No mistrust between banks * Our Problems : * Reduction in capital flows * Stock markets * Monetary and liquidity impact * Fiscal stress * Oil, Fertiliser, Food subsidies * Pay Commission, Debt waiver, NRE * GFD/GDP ratio: 5.5-6.0% * India’s Approach to Managing Financial Stability: *...
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...corporate businesses globally, but from a financial market perspective, the ease in which capital flows is also encompassed in the “world is flat” concept. Due to technological advances, the global financial market has been refined with electronic exchanges, networks, institutions, and communications. Each country may have its own financial market, but the world is so closely tied together, causing global affects when one market is prospering or suffering. Currently all eyes are on Europe and the “Euro Crisis” stemming from their uncontrollable debt. There are discussions of a $1 trillion dollar bailout for the 16 “Eurozone” countries, which could ultimately cost and estimated $3 trillion or bankruptcy. Greece and Ireland are in the forefront of the countries in financial ruin. With the media making the entire world aware of these countries financial crisis and their insolvent state, investors are reluctant to continue to buy bonds that may not payoff. These investors are expected to bring in cash flow buy buying bonds so the European country can pay back the bank loans with extremely high interest. European Central Bank, responsible for monetary policy, bought euro-zone bonds with the promise to sell assets to offset the purchase of these bonds. The problem lies in the wide spread knowledge that this is a very high risk investment which may not bring a return. With both the United States and Europe in economic crisis, investors are looking toward other markets...
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...few more years. The rupee as a currency should be more frequently traded internationally,” said Dwijendra Srivastava, chief investment officer (debt) at Sundaram Mutual Fund. India’s external sector was vulnerable till recently, with the current account deficit above the comfort level of 2.5 per cent of the gross domestic product. It was 4.2 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2011-12 and rose to 4.7 per cent in 2012-13. After severe curbs, including restrictions on import of precious metals, the deficit fell to 1.7 per cent in 2013-14. In 2014-15, it continued to stay low, with the third quarter showing a deficit of 1.6 per cent. The fiscal situation remains fragile. The turning point was in 2007, the year of the global financial crisis. The fiscal deficit of the central government has been 4.6-6.5 per cent in the past six years, before falling to 4.1 per cent in 2013-14. The government is committed to keeping the fiscal deficit low and the target of 3.9 per cent has been retained for this year. The deficit target will be progressively reduced to 3.5 and three per cent in 2016-17 and 2017-18, respectively. Experts believe utmost care should be taken along the path of convertibility. Ajit Ranade, chief economist at the Aditya Birla Group, who was part of an RBI committee on...
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