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French Economy Outlook

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Submitted By zlyfocus
Words 8206
Pages 33
BUSINESS CYCLES

Final Group Project Dossier

ANALYSIS OF FRENCH ECONOMIC 2011-2012

THE OUTLOOK FOR REAL GDP GROWTH

THE OUTLOOK FOR REAL GDP GROWTH

GROUP MEMBERS

CHEN KEHAN
TEREZIA MRAZOVA
WANG XINRUI
WU JIE
YANG ZIJIANG

CONTENT
CHAPTER I National and International Environment1
1.1The International Environment2
1.2 The Domestic Environment5
CHAPTER II The Real Economy7
2.1 Contributions to Real GDP Growth7
2.2 Unemployment Rates and Capacity Utilization8
2.3 Percent Growth In wages, in Prices, Level of Interest Rates8
2.4 Investment10
2.5 Consumption16
CHAPTER III The Foreign Trade(Imports, Exports)22
CHAPTER IV Government’s Fiscal and Monetary Policies23
CHAPTER V Summary of Macroeconomics Analysis France27

CHAPTER 1 International and National Context
1.1 International Environment
Table 1.1.1 The International Environment

| | average | 2010 | 2011 | 2012(BNP) | 2012(MF) | Real GDP | USA(GOV) | | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 2.0 | | JAPAN | | 4.0 | -0.7 | 1.3 | | | EUROZONE(GOV) | | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 1.4 | | ASIA(BNP) | | 9.2 | 7.7 | 7.6(CA) | | WORLD | | | 5.1 | 3.8 | 3.4 | | Price of crude oil (Brent) | 112.5 (8, Nov. 2011) | | 80 | 111 | 109 | 110 | Exchange Rate(USD/EUR) | 1.38 (8, Nov. 2011) | | 1.33 | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.43 | Special Factors | 1 Japanese earthquake2 Sovereign debt crisis in Europe |

Analysis of International Economic Environment a) World demand
Table 1.1.2 GDP, Real Percent Change of Previous Year

In 2011, the world in a whole is still suffering from 2008 financial crisis. Although world-demand is increasing, the growth rate is not very favorable.

b) Economy of USA
In United States, the growth rate of GDP has declined to 1.6%, well below its long-term average level. Given US is the largest economy entity in the whole world, the result of the declining is

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