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技術分析:技術指標
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技術分析:技術指標
圖表總是包含大量資訊。然而,有時候您可能不明白那些圖表所表述 的內容,那您只能向翻譯員尋求幫助。技術指標就是外匯市場的翻譯 員。它們研究價格資訊並將它翻譯成“便於讀取”的信號,讓您可以決 定何時買入和賣出一組貨幣對。 技術指標以數學等式為基礎,算出一個數值後將它標在您的圖表上。 例如,一條移動平均線計算出一組貨幣對的歷史平均價格,然後在您 的圖上顯示出這一點。當您的匯價圖向前發展時,移動平均線就根據 它所掌握的最新的價格資訊顯示出新的價格點。移動平均線最終會為 您明確指出貨幣對的走向。

移動平均線

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每一個技術指標都包含獨有的資訊。基於您的交易個性,您會發現自 己很自然地傾向於使用某一些技術指標,不過熟練掌握您所倚重的每 一個技術指標是非常重要的。 同時,您應該留意技術指標的共有弱點:因為技術指標研究的是歷史 價格,它們對未來的市場行情不作任何擔保。 技術指標分為以下幾種類型:

趨勢指標
趨勢指標,顧名思義,就是判斷並跟隨一組貨幣對的走勢。外匯交易 者大部分收入都是在貨幣對出現趨勢時獲得的。因此,判斷貨幣對何 時呈現趨勢運行與何時處於盤整對您來說是至關重要的。如果您能在 趨勢一開始就馬上入場交易,趨勢一結束就立即退場,那您的交易將 非常成功。 我們來看看以下兩種趨勢指標:

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趨勢指標 擺動指標 成交量指標 移動平均線 保力加通道

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通過調整移動平均線獲取平均價時所參考的時限,您可以調整該指標

移動平均線
移動平均線是最基本的趨勢指標。它們為您指明一組貨幣對的價格走 向以及在哪個價位可能出現支持位和阻力位。移動平均線本身可作為 支持位與阻力位。 在討論移動平均線時,我們將研究以下三個主題:

的波動性。參考的時間範圍越小,移動平均線的波動性越大。參考的 時間範圍越大,移動平均線的波動性越小。

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如何構建移動平均線 移動平均線的交易信號 移動平均線的優勢

如何構建一條移動平均線
找出一組貨幣對在特定時段內的平均收市價,然後在價格圖上標出這 些點就構成移動平均線。這樣您就得到了一條跟隨貨幣對價格走勢的 平滑線。

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進場信號—當趨勢上升的貨幣對在觸及上揚的移動平均線後向上反
彈,或者當趨勢下跌的貨幣對在觸及下滑的移動平均線後向下回落 時。

退場信號—當您投資一組趨勢上升的貨幣對時,您可以把止損設在
移動平均線下方。移動平均線上揚時,把您的止損也隨之提高。如果 該貨幣對的價格很大幅度地跌破移動平均線,您的止損會讓您退出這 次投資。

移動平均線

當您投資一組趨勢下跌的貨幣對時,您可以把止損設在移動平均線上 方。移動平均線下滑時,把您的止損也隨之下調。如果該貨幣對的價 格很大幅度地突破移動平均線,您的止損會讓您退出這次交易。

移動平均線的優勢
移動平均線具以下優勢:

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它們能識別簡單的趨勢 它們在短期和長期時段都能靈活地發揮作用

移動平均線的交易信號
移動平均線為那些出現趨勢的貨幣對提供有效的交易信號。

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保力加通道
保力加通道由約翰布林格提出,這項指標不但讓使用者了解某貨幣對 的走勢,而且可顯示該貨幣對在價格變動的波動性。保力加通道可以 為用戶提供相對清晰的價格高點與低點。保利加通道包含兩組線—— 一條通道上軌線和一條通道下軌線——還有一條移動平均線,這些線 通常標在價格走勢的上端。 在討論保力加通道時,我們將研究以下三個主題:

如何構建保力加通道
保力加通道通常是以一條 20 日移動平均線為基礎。這條移動平均線貫 穿在通道上軌線和下軌線中間。在 20 日移動平均線上方加上 2 倍標準 差劃出通道上軌線。在 20 日移動平均線下方減去 2 倍標準差劃出通道 下軌線。 標準差是一個統計學術語,用來測量各種收市價與平均收市價之間存 在多少偏差。因此,20 日保力加通道讓您瞭解在過去 20 日裏收市價 的波動範圍有多大。貨幣對的價格波動越大,通道就越寬。貨幣對的 價格波動越小,通道就越窄。

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如何構建保力加通道 保力加通道的交易信號 保力加通道的優勢

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圖表: 移動平均線

移動平均線

上軌線

下軌線

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保力加通道的交易信號
保力加通道為您提供那些持續盤整的貨幣對的突破信號。

擺動指標
擺動指標,顧名思義,就是隨著貨幣對的上漲和下跌而來回移動的指 標。擺動指標不但能幫您判斷貨幣對的當前趨勢有多強勁,而且還能 幫您判斷出這種趨勢在什麼時候會失去動力並反轉。 當擺動指標太高,貨幣對就會被認為是超買(即太多人買這組貨幣 對,而且市場上已經沒有足夠的買家來推高該貨幣對的價格)。這表 明貨幣對有失去上行動力並反轉向下或盤整的風險。 當擺動指標太低,貨幣對就會被認為是超賣(即太多人賣這組貨幣 對,而且市場上已經沒有足夠的賣家來拉低貨幣對的價格)。這表明 貨幣對有失去下行動力並反轉向上或盤整的風險。

入場信號—經過一段時間的盤整後,當通道變寬而且通道線開始往
反方向移動,您可以順著價格的走向進入交易。

退場信號—當通道變窄,貨幣對的價格從突破口回落並開始向當前
價格移動,如果趨勢發生反轉,您就設立一個尾隨止損訂單來賣出這 筆交易。

保力加通道的優勢
保力加通道具有以下優勢: 它們能幫您識別趨勢 它們能判斷當前市場的波動性

現在我們來研究以下幾種擺動指標::

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商品通道指標(CCI) 平滑異同移動平均線(MACD) 慢步隨機指標 相對強弱指標(RSI)

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如何構建 CCI CCI 的交易信號 CCI 的優勢

如何構建商品通道指標(CCI)
商品通道指標以過去價格變化的平均值以及那些價格變化與平均值的 差距為基礎,向交易者表明價格變化的波動性實際上有多大。

商品通道指標(CCI)
商品通道指標(CCI)是唐納德•蘭伯特提出的一種擺動指標,它可以 顯示交易者對貨幣對的態度有多樂觀或多悲觀,而且它能評估那些風 險情緒的強度。您可以通過 CCI 來觀察貨幣對的波動性,就像您可以 通過保力加通道來觀察貨幣對的波動性一樣。 通常 CCI 是標在圖中價格走勢的下方。在討論 CCI 時,我們將研究以 下三個主題:

如果貨幣對的平均價格上升,那麼 CCI 也會隨之上升。CCI 上升的速度 有多快取決於貨幣對的波動性。波動性越大,CCI 就會上升得越快。 波動性越小,CCI 就會上升得越慢。 如果貨幣對的平均價格下跌,那麼 CCI 也會隨之下滑。CCI 下滑的速度 取決於貨幣對的波動性。波動性越大,CCI 就會下滑得越快。波動性 越小,CCI 就會下滑得越慢。 CCI 來回移動,在循環發展過程中穿越 100、零線以及-100。

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圖表: CCI

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商品通道指標的交易信號 當商品通道指標(CCI)穿過 100 線上方與下方,以及穿過-100 線上方 與下方時,就會產生交易信號。

商品通道指標(CCI)的優勢
商品通道指標(CCI)具有以下優勢::

進場信號—
幣對。

CCI 最初升至 100 線上方,然後下滑至 100 線下方時,

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它幫您判斷貨幣對的波動性 它幫您識別貨幣對的潛在轉捩點 它幫您確定當前趨勢的強弱

意味著買家勢頭已盡,而且貨幣對很快就會下跌,則您可以賣出該貨

當 CCI 下滑至-100 線下方,然後又升至-100 線上方時,意味著賣家勢 頭已盡,而且貨幣對很快就會上漲,則您可以買入該貨幣對。

退場信號—在您已經賣出貨幣對之後,CCI

回轉並開始走高,將止

損設置在最接近阻力位上方的價位。如果貨幣對回轉並走到阻力位上 方,您的止損就會讓您的交易平倉。 在您已經買入貨幣對之後,CCI 回轉並開始走低,將止損設置在最接 近支持位下方的價位。如果貨幣對回轉並走到支持位下方,您的止損 就會讓您的交易平倉。

平滑異同移動平均線(MACD)
平滑異同移動平均線(MACD)是傑拉爾得•阿佩爾提出的一種擺動指 標,它 可以 顯示 交 易 動力 什麼時 候由 漲轉 跌, 反之 亦然。 同時 , MACD 還可以顯示交易者何時出現過度傾向,通常這種情況會導致貨 幣對趨勢反轉。

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通常 MACD 標在圖中價格走勢的下方。在討論 MACD 時,我們將研究 以下三個主題:

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如何構建 MACD MACD 的交易信號 MACD 的優勢

如何構建平滑異同移動平均線(MACD)
平滑異同移動平均線是建立在一系列的移動平均線以及它們的相互 關係的基礎上。標準 MACD 研究貨幣對的 12 日指數平均值與 26 日指 數平均值之間的關係。MACD 特別研究這兩種平均值的距離。如果 12 日移動平均線在 26 日移動平均線上方,那麼 MACD 就是正值。如果 12 日移動平均線在 26 日移動平均線下方,那麼 MACD 就是負值。 MACD 帶有一條觸發線。這條線是 MACD 線的 9 日指數平均值。

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圖表: MACD

觸發線

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平滑異同移動平均線(MACD)的優勢 平滑異同移動平均線(MACD)的交易信號
平滑異同移動平均線(MACD)來回穿過觸發線的上方和下方時就會 產生交易信號。 MACD 突破觸發線時,意味著動力已經由跌轉漲,您 它幫您判斷貨幣對的動力何時轉變 它幫您確定當前趨勢的強弱 平滑異同移動平均線(MACD)具有以下優勢:

入場信號—當

可以買入該組貨幣對。 當 MACD 穿過觸發線下方時,意味著勢頭已經由漲轉跌,您可以賣出 該組貨幣對。

慢步隨機指標
MACD 回到觸發線下方時您已經買入貨幣對,不過在 慢步隨機指標是喬治•蘭恩提出的一種擺動指標,它可以顯示投資者的 情緒什麼時候從看漲轉為看跌,反之亦然。同時,慢步隨機指標還可 以顯示交易者何時出現過度傾向,這種情況通常會導致貨幣對趨勢反 轉。 通常慢步隨機指標在圖中價格走勢的下方。在討論慢步隨機指標時, 我們將研究以下三個主題:

退場信號—當

得知動力已經由漲轉跌時,您可以賣出該貨幣對。 當 MACD 回到觸發線上方時您已經賣出貨幣對,不過在得知動力已經由 跌轉漲時,您可以買入該貨幣對。

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例如,如果歐元/美元在過去 14 個交易時段的收市價在 1.4200 到 如何構建慢步隨機指標 慢步隨機指標的交易信號 慢步隨機指標的優勢 1.4300 之間,而且現在的收市價是 1.4295(接近歷史價格範圍的頂 端),%K 線就會向指標的頂端移動。

如何構建慢步隨機指標
慢步隨機指標包含兩條線——%K 線 和 %D 線——擺動範圍在 0 到 100 之間。建立%K 線的基礎是貨幣對當前收市價在歷史收市價的範圍 內所處的位置。%D 線是%K 線的一條移動平均線。 如果貨幣對的收市價接近歷史收市價範圍的頂端,%K 線(隨後是%D 線)就會走高。 如果貨幣對的收市價接近歷史收市價範圍的底端,%K 線(隨後是%D 線)就會走低。

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圖表: 慢步隨機

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慢步隨機指標的交易信號
慢步隨機指標穿入與躍出反轉區域的頂部與底部時就會產生交易信 號。指標高於 80 時所處的區域就是頂部反轉區。當%K 線高於 80,表 示貨幣對可能出現超買,而且可能馬上會反轉趨勢。指標低於 20 時所 處的區域就是底部反轉區。當%K 線低於 20,表示貨幣對可能出現超 賣,而且可能馬上會反轉趨勢。

慢步隨機指標的優勢
慢步隨機指標具有以下優勢:

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它幫您判斷貨幣對的投資情緒何時會改變 它幫您確定當前趨勢的強弱

入場信號—當%K 線從上向下穿過 80

時,意味著貨幣對的投資情緒

已經從看漲轉為看跌,您就可以賣出該貨幣對。 當%K 線從下向上穿過 20 時,意味著貨幣對的投資情緒已經從看跌轉 為看漲,您就可以買入貨幣對。

成交量指標
由於貨幣對是在銀行同業市場交易,而非在中心交易所交易,所以目 前沒有貨幣交易的成交量資料。沒有成交量的資料,您就無法構建成 交量指標。因此,我們不在外匯交易中使用成交量指標。 當您把投資擴大到股票、差價合約和期貨時,您將學到更多成交量指 標的知識。

退場信號—當%K
了。

線已經穿過 20 上方或者 80 下方後發生轉向,而

且穿過%D 線,意味著投資情緒再次改變方向,您就可以退出交易

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免責聲明 本課程製作目的僅為公眾教育用途。 被訪者所發表的意見純屬其個人立場及為提供一般性資料而節錄,並不必然代表盛寶金融的立場。 所有提供的資料及評述並不構成認可任何投資產品或對任何投資產品作出要約的意思。製作本節目時,並未顧 及個別觀眾的財政狀況、需要或目標。本節目提及的投資產品可能並不適合所有人士。本節目對任何個別投資 產品或策略所作出的意見或評述的合適性取決於個別人士的情況及目標。因此,個別人士應該獨立地評估及確 認有關產品及策略。如有需要應於採納意見或進行投資前先尋求獨立專業顧問的意見。投資者不應依賴上述的 意見作出任何投資決定。 本節目提供的資料,包括盛寶金融平台的技術及功能方面的資料可能不完整。 風險警告: 投資涉及風險,外匯或衍生性工具涉及的槓桿式投資帶有高風險及會導致巨額利潤或損失。閣下於 作出投資決定前,應該詳細考慮 閣下的財務狀況及就有關投資是否適合閣下諮詢獨立的專業顧問的意見。

公司註冊編號 : 1395901 證監會中央牌照號碼 : AVD061

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