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Geo Politics

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THE GEOPOLITICS OF OIL
Beatrice E. Rangel

By 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce a volume of new oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being produced today … the cost associated … is expected to be considerably more than what the industry is now spending. — Mike Bowlin, CEO, ARCO, 1999

en to 5 to 1. Once the ratio hits 1 to1, oil may be technically extractable but it will be of no use as an energy source. The occurrence of the Oil Peak or Huber’s Peak would call for strong international cooperation to rapidly increase output while curbing demand and investing in alternative energy sources. But what if someone has an alternative plan? SCENARIO A: ALL COME TOGETHER The Middle East finds a path to stability; the Americas actively engage in development of energy resources, as the region holds 12% of the world’s energy reserves. The Americas come together under a development-based approach to Energy Security which reduces the rate of consumption of oil in the United States while creating up- and down-stream job opportunities for the lower income echelons in the countries where significant oil and gas reservoirs are located. Pricing policies entice development of alternative sources. Over a period of 20 years, the energy structure of the Americas becomes the most diversified in the world. Innovation tied to alternative sources of energy boosts development rates in the hemisphere. Democracies become gradually more stable, as the development approach touches the daily lives of the many who now have a stake in stability and growth. Ethanol, compressed natural gas, hydroelectric power, nuclear and solar energy, reduce oil consumption and the speed of the oil depletion curve. The world economy finds some bumpy roads but rebounds strongly thereafter to enter a three-decade long growth path.

Since the world witnessed the rise of the

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