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Global Political Economy of Pakistan

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PAKISTAN’S ECONOMIC FUTURE

DR. ISHRAT HUSAIN

Economists have a very poor track record of forecasting the future as the dynamic interactions between complex variables, an imperfect understanding of the non-economic factors and the occurrence of unanticipated exogenous shocks turn their judgements into hit and miss episodes. Despite these weaknesses economic forecasting flourishes as a discipline and the economists show indomitable courage to sketch out their scenarios of an uncertain and unknown future. This article therefore examines the past developments, current trends of Pakistani economy and the future global and regional outlook and builds the most likely scenario for the medium term economic prospects of the country (next 10 years or so) and then reviews the downside risks and upside gains around this scenario.

2. Pakistan is still a low income country and it would require at least next 14 years of 7 percent average annual GDP growth to double its per-capita income to around $ 2000 (official exchange rate conversion). This growth rate should also be able to reduce the incidence of poverty by half and meet the Millennium Development Goal.

3. It is easy to make this normative statement but more difficult question is how can this growth rate be achieved on a sustained basis? The prophets of doom and gloom in Pakistan (and there are plenty of them) who are constantly polluting the minds of our younger generation and turning them into cynics at very early age sapping their energies for constructive thinking and actions would dismiss this exercise as a figment of imagination or at best a fantasy. To them, all the economic gains have accrued due to the windfall of 9/11 and Pakistan’s support to the US in the war against terror. When confronted with the stark fact that Pakistan was one of the few countries that grew by 6 percent annually between 1960 and

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