...Decision Analysis Case Study FREEMARK ABBEY WINERY Khurram Masood’s section HLCC Consulting Inc. Julian Hong Nicolas Liao Alan Chen Cheng-Chieh Chao Decision Basis Information Probability of rain, mold formation, acidity, sugar level, wine price, reputation value, detector accuracy, spores effectiveness, immigration law Mr. Jaeger’s Alternatives Harvest now or later Use detector or not Buy spores or not Sell in bottle or bulk Mr. Jaeger’s Preferences Prefers more money than less Cares about reputation Uncertainties Probability of rain, mold formation, acidity, sugar level Decision Diagram Detector/ No Detector Rain/ No Rain Detector Prediction Acidity Level Harvest/ Not harvest Spores/ No Spores Botrytise/ Thin wine Sugar Level Immigration Law Passed/Failed Bottle/ Not Bottle Value $ Decision Tree Harvest Now Immigration Law Passed Rain Immigration Law Failed Immigration Law Passed Buy Spores No Rain Immigration Law Failed Mold Develops Mold Develops Low Acidity >= 25% Normal Sugar Acidity < 25% Sugar Low Acidity >= 25% Sugar < 25% Sugar Mold Develops Sell Wine In Bulk No Mold Sell Wine Case Mold Develops Sell Wine In Bulk No Mold Sell Wine Case Low Acidity >= 25% Normal Sugar Acidity < 25% Sugar Low Acidity >= 25% Normal Sugar Acidity < 25% Sugar Normal Acidity Do Not Rent Weather Detector Immigration Law Passed Harvest Later Rain ...
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