...Analysis of the Impact of Macro-economic Variables on the GDP of China and India by Manish Chandi Shrestha Submitted to the Program of Analytics in the Postgraduate Division of the Business School As part of the requirement for Master of Business Administration at Bournemouth University March, 2015 Contents List of acronyms i List of figures and tables ii Abstract 1 Introduction 1 Methodology 2 Data source 3 Findings 3 Interpretation 4 Conclusion 9 References 10 Appendices 11 List of Acronyms GDP Gross Domestic Product IMF International Monetary Fund IQR Inter Quartile Range ANOVA Analysis of Variance BLUE Best Linear Unbiased Estimator VIF Variance Inflation Factor List of Figures and Tables 1. Correlation Analysis of China 4 2. Correlation Analysis of India 4 3. Beta coefficients for China and India 5 4. Revised Beta Coefficients for China 5 5. Comparison between Predicted and Actual GDP for China 6 6. Comparison between Predicted and Actual GDP for India 7 7. Test of Normality of Error for China and India 7 8. Residual Statistics for India 8 9. Residual Statistics for China 8 10. Collinearity Statistics for India and China ...
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...trade, investment, technology, finance and labour. Globalisation has impacted greatly on the economy of India which is the 7th largest economy in the world and the 2nd most populus. India recently opened it’s economy in the last decade from a closed market in 1991.Globalisation has certain impacts on the economy which include economic convergence, economic growth & development, quality of life, distribution of income and wealth. There have been strategies put in place to promote economic growth and development which include. International Convergence International convergence is the tendency of economies becoming more similar in the ways they operate, their consumption patterns, structure of output, economic performance and government systems. The impact of this is an increase in trade dependency with economies formed open and deregulated markets as well as an increase in trade. A positive impact from increased trade is greater efficiency in resource allocation for NIE such as India. Indian exports have grown more than 25% per year to over $100 billion in 2006. (1)It has also led to an increase in level of output as GDP growth for India in 2007 was 9%. (2). As Indian companies began trading on the world market they were forced to become more efficient to allow them to be more competitive. This leads to lower prices and an increase in demand for goods and services in India. As a result of more efficient industries it’s keeps prices relatively low and thus keeps inflation from...
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...Economic Impact of globalization in IndiaMultilateral agreements in trade, taking on such new agendas as environmental and social conditions. New multilateral agreements for services ,Intellectual properties, communications, and more binding on national governments than any previous agreements. Market economic policies spreading around the world, with greater privatization and liberalization than in earlier decades. Growing global markets in services. People can now execute trade services globally -- from medical advice to software writing to data processing , that could never really be traded before. Open Market policy -advantages Growing Indian Economy GDP – USD 1.36 trillion GDP growth rate – 9% Services contribution – 60-65% Balance of Trade – Negative balance should increase with surging imports versus exports Investment goal – USD 370 billion GDP – USD 1.16 trillion GDP growth rate – 9.5% Services contribution – 60% Balance of Trade – Negative balance should increase with surging imports versus exports Investment goal – USD 305 billion GDP – USD 590 billion GDP growth rate – 9% Services contribution – 54% Balance of Trade – USD (-)46.2 billion Investment goal – USD 250 billion 2010 2008 2006 105 105 135 145 167 103 125 204 231 287 682 191 237 398 453 0 200 400 600 800 1.000 1.200 1999-00 2002-03 2005-06 2006-07 2010* USD Billion Agriculture Industry Services Growing GDP Source: India...
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...recession India had been growing robustly at an annual average rate of 8.8 per cent for the past five years (2003-04 to 2007-08). This was higher than the potential growth rate of output as estimated by the IMF. The strong Indian growth story, based on its structural strengths of a young population, skilled manpower, rising savings and investment rates, large unfulfilled domestic demand and globally competitive firms attracted significant investor attention in recent years. Recent high rates of economic growth have been the result of high levels of investment, rise in productivity supported by technological up-gradation and greater integration with global flows of trade, finance and technology. The challenge is to sustain these high growth rates while also preventing an unacceptable rise in income and spatial inequities and also eliminating absolute poverty in a given time frame. The answer to this challenge is in raising India’s potential rate of output growth by removing the binding constraints. We have also estimated the potential growth rate for India during the last decade based on HP filter technique (Hodrick and Prescott, 1997) and found that in the last three years, India had been growing above its potential growth rate. Figure 6: Potential GDP Growth and Output Gap (1997-08 to 2007-08) Note: Based on HP filter technique as proposed by Hodrick and Prescott (1997). Fears of over-heating of the economy prompted the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to begin...
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...David G Williams #15332730 Economics Assignment 2 The Indian Economy Executive Summary The Indian Economy is currently experiencing strong growth adverse to difficulties witnessed after the global financial crisis. Current GDP levels at approximately $1.5 US Dollars as the fifth largest economy in the world. The aim of this paper is to address macroeconomic conditions that may affect India’s ability to maintain high levels of growth. Monetary and Fiscal policy have been analysed and recommendations made to manage inflation, employment and debt. Tax increases on higher earners and other possible consumption taxes would slow aggregate demand but allow government to increase its spending. Inflationary pressures are as a result of the economy not being able to meet supply requirements and investment in agricultural practise and increase in the manufacturing sector should assist in reducing inflation which is 11.7%. This will also have positive effects on employment which will allow India to reach higher levels of GDP in the long term. Other areas of long term planning will be for improved and widespread access to education and move people into the services sector which currently employs only 34% of people compared with 52% in agriculture and 14% in manufacturing. In the short term the migration of workers from agriculture into manufacturing is a possibility. Diversion of higher taxes to reduce debt levels sitting at 55.9%...
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...and Internet have brought people closer. The world is becoming a smaller place. It brings the local market and the global market in a bond which creates new ideas and thoughts to both the market. Goods, which were once confined to western countries, are available across the globe. Work can be outsourced to any part of the world that has an Internet connection. Because of improvements in traffic infrastructure one is able to reach one’s destination in a relatively short span of time. This paper clearly speaks about the impact of globalization and the challenges faced by it in the world. It speaks about the impact in developed and developing countries of the world. Table of Contents CHAPTER 1 5 Definition of Globalization 5 Globalization trend in the past golden years 5 CHAPTER 2 8 Positive impact of Globalization 8 Challenges faced due to Globalization 9 Comparison between Benefits and Challenges 11 CHAPTER 3 13 Impact on developed countries 13 Impact on developing countries 14 Conclusion 15 Case Study 15 References 16 CHAPTER 1 Definition of Globalization As a term globalization is defined as the merging of the economies and societies all over the world. Out of the few hundred definitions we are going to see some of the definition concerned with the global economy and business perspective. It can be defined as "is the closer integration of the countries and peoples of the world ...brought about by the enormous reduction of costs of transportation and...
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...Authority on World Travel & Tourism Travel & Tourism Economic Impact 2015 Malaysia For more information, please contact: Rochelle Turner Head of Research rochelle.turner@wttc.org ©2015 World Travel & Tourism Council Foreword The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) is the global authority on the economic and social contribution of Travel & Tourism. WTTC promotes sustainable growth for the sector, working with governments and international institutions to create jobs, to drive exports and to generate prosperity. Travel & Tourism’s impact on the economic and social development of a country can be enormous; opening it up for business, trade and capital investment, creating jobs and entrepreneurialism for the workforce and protecting heritage and cultural values. To fully understand its impact, however, governments, policy makers and businesses around the world require accurate and reliable data on the impact of the sector. Data is needed to help assess policies that govern future industry development and to provide knowledge to help guide successful and sustainable Travel & Tourism investment decisions. For 25 years, WTTC has been quantifying the economic impact of Travel & Tourism. This year, the 2015 Annual Economic Reports cover 184 countries and 25 regions of the world, including, for the first time, the Pacific Alliance. Travel & Tourism generated US$7.6 trillion (10% of global GDP) and 277 million jobs (1 in 11 jobs) for the global economy...
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...Impact of Macro-Economic Variables on the Stock Market Impact of Macro-Economic Variables on the Stock Market Arunabha Dhar (Roll No. 008) Gaurav Bhatt (Roll No. 017) Amartya Ray (Roll No. 067) Bodhisatva Basu (Roll No. 075) Rahul Jain (Roll No. 094) Arunabha Dhar (Roll No. 008) Gaurav Bhatt (Roll No. 017) Amartya Ray (Roll No. 067) Bodhisatva Basu (Roll No. 075) Rahul Jain (Roll No. 094) Contents UNDERSTANDING ON RESEARCH PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION & DEFINITION 3 ABSTRACT 3 INTRODUCTION 3 LITERATURE REVIEW 6 GAP in Research 8 MOTIVATION 8 DATA COLLECTION/SAMPLE SELECTION 9 HYPOTHESIS 10 Research Methodology 10 FINDINGS 11 CONTRIBUTION TO LITERATURE 23 CONCLUSIONS 23 References 25 UNDERSTANDING ON RESEARCH PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION & DEFINITION Relationship between macroeconomic variables and broad market index: A causal relationship between Nifty CNX and macroeconomic variables in India ABSTRACT The relationship between macroeconomic variables and broad market index by now are well documented in the literature. However a void in the literature relates to examining the causal relationship between Nifty CNX and macroeconomic variables such as FDI, FPI, weighted average lending rate (WALR), GDP and oil import in India and correlation among the macro variables. INTRODUCTION Globalization of Indian economy post liberalization has been spurred by capital and stock investment in terms of FDI & FPI. Indian stock market both securities...
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...The argument is agreeable that Trade liberalization happening in many countries in context of globalization especially in Asian countries like INDIA, Indonesia, China and other countries in Asia, has been helped by the economic reform measures taken. While talking about globalization and trade liberalization of INDIA, it’s important to know the major steps taken by India in last few years to be a part of the world market with foreign direct investment, free trade and levied tariffs on taxes, and other duties on like export and import duties etc. “Globalization is the process of world shrinkage, of distances getting shorter, things moving closer. It pertains to the increasing ease with which somebody on one side of the world can interact, to mutual benefit, with somebody on the other side of the world.” (Larsson, 2001) Guy Brainbant: says that the process of globalisation not only includes opening up of world trade, development of advanced means of communication, internationalisation of financial markets, growing importance of MNC's, population migrations and more generally increased mobility of persons, goods, capital, data and ideas but also infections, diseases and pollution. (Brainbant, 2006) Globalisation is a new mantra which has come to rule the world since late 20th century especially after important historical events such as Soviet Union breaking into pieces and end of world cold war since then the global picture has come into existence. The trend of relying market...
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...IMPACTS OF GLOBALIZATION ON INDIAN ECONOMY INTRODUCTION TO GLOBALIZATION: Globalization has many meanings depending on the context and on the person who is talking about. It refers to the increasing global relationships of culture, people and economic activity. Guy Brainbant: says that the process of globalisation not only includes opening up of world trade, development of advanced means of communication, internationalisation of financial markets, growing importance of MNC’s, population migrations and more generally increased mobility of persons, goods, capital, data and ideas but also infections, diseases and pollution. The term globalization refers to the integration of economies of the world through uninhibited trade and financial flows, as also through mutual exchange of technology and knowledge. Ideally, it also contains free inter-country movement of labour. The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia defines globalization as: "a widely-used term that can be defined in a number of different ways. When used in an economic context, it refers to the reduction and removal of barriers between national borders in order to facilitate the flow of goods, capital, services and labour... although considerable barriers remain to the flow of labour... Globalization is not a new phenomenon. It began towards the end of the nineteenth century, but it slowed down during the period from the start of the first World War until the third quarter of the twentieth...
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...FT163082 TEJAS PRAMOD MADAN FT163098 SHABARISH NAMA RADHAKONAIAH FT164080 VARUN M FT164096 As per the recent report by the World Bank, India is all set to be the world’s fastest growing economy by 2015 ahead of China. India’s GDP is forecasted to be 7.5% through 2015 and is forecasted to be 8% in FY16. This improvement can be attributed to the new government’s strong reforms RBI’s inflation focus and falling global commodity prices. GDP : 65445.9 billion Rate of growth (GDP) FY15 | 7.4% | Status of Employment | 29650 billion | India Industrial Production | 4.1% | Agricultural Sector | 18% of GDP ; 4152.28 Billion INR | Services Sector | 65% of GDP | Investment and Consumption expenditure | | Current account Deficit | 0.2% of GDP ; 1.3 billion USD | Fiscal Deficit | 3.9% of GDP ; 1.27 lakh crore INR | Interest Rate | 7.25 % | Net Exports | 22146.75 Million USD | Foreign Exchange Reserve | 355460 Billion USD | Credit Off Take | 10.19% ; Rs 65,24,257 crore | Rate of Growth of States Gross State Domestic Product at current prices State Gross Domestic product at Current Prices It can be seen that Maharashtra contributes the highest among the 33 Indian states and union territories.. The Top 5 States share about 44% of India’s total economy. Eight states of North East India share just around 2% of India’s GDP. Goa is found to have highest per capita income. Average Growth in Gross State Domestic Product since 2005 During 2005-14, the highest...
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...IMPACT OF GLOBALISATION ON INDIAN ECONOMY POST 1991 Globalization (or globalization) depicts a process by which local economies, social orders, and societies have turned out to be incorporated through a worldwide system of correspondence, transportation, and exchange. Globalization for the most part implies coordinating economy of our country with the world economy. The monetary changes started have dramatically affected the general development of the economy. It likewise proclaimed the mix of the Indian economy into the worldwide economy. The Indian economy was in real emergency in 1991 when outside money saves went down to $1 billion. Globalization had its effect on different areas including Agricultural, Industrial, Financial, Health segment...
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...Behavior” mainly focuses on the study of the structure of the external sector of Bangladesh and its impact on GDP. It involves economic models developed to determine the impact of each sector-Export, Import, Foreign Aid and Remittance, on GDP of Bangladesh. It also involves an analysis of the behavior of these factors in three SAARC countries and the application of the regression model developed. The economic model was developed based on the past behavior of GDP and the external sector. It indicated that Remittance is the sector having the most significant impact on GDP and aid the second most significant. While imports negatively affect economic growth, exports have played a very important role over the period. The remittance of Bangladesh has been increasing over the last few years. Hence, its impact on GDP has also been rising. In the span of 34 years export as percentage of GDP increased from 2.2% to 15.4%. Hence, performance was moderately good. The economy has been suffering from ever increasing trade deficits, despite several export promotional measures. Large import payments mainly account for this problem. Foreign aid shows large fluctuations over the period Finally, an analysis was conducted on the behavior of the external sectors in the SAARC countries using the regression model. Export was found to be the dominant sector in India, while imports had the minimum impact on GDP. Pakistan was found to be more dependent on export and foreign aid than on remittance and import...
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...International Research Journal of Finance and Economics ISSN 1450-2887 Issue 5 (2006) © EuroJournals Publishing, Inc. 2006 http://www.eurojournals.com/finance.htm Impact of Globalization on Developing Countries (With Special Reference To India) Krishn A Goyal Department of Management Birla Institute of Technology, International Center Waljat Colleges of Applied Sciences, Muscat P. Box-197, PC-124, Rusayl, Muscat, Oman E-mail: kagoyala@gmail.com Phone 00968 92373238 Abstract The growing integration of economies and societies around the world – has been one of the most hotly-debated topics in international economics over the past few years. Rapid growth and poverty reduction in China, India, and other countries that were poor 20 years ago, has been a positive aspect of Liberalization Privatization and Globalization (LPG). But Globalization has also generated significant international opposition over concerns that it has increased inequality and environmental degradation. There is a need to study the impact of globalization on developing countries from the viewpoint of inward foreign direct investment. Attention should also be focused on the role which some developing countries, particularly from parts of Asia and Latin America, are playing as initiators of globalization through their own MNCs. India opened up the economy in the early nineties following a major crisis that led by a foreign exchange crunch that dragged the economy close to defaulting on loans. The response was...
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...Background Information of India India is a country located in South Asia with a total area of 3,287,263 square km. It has a total population of 1.241 billion. Hindi is the official language of the country with 14 other official regional languages. However, English has become the second language and often used in business. New Delhi is the capital city of the country. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita for India is $1,592. Population growth in India is decreasing, however, it is predicted that its population will reach 1.4 billion by 2025. Life expectancy in India has also increased from 66 years old for men and 71 years old for women. However, the population is still living in rural area with almost 60% of the population living in slumps and villages. However, the shift from rural to urban is also increasing. Literacy rates in India have surged to 74.04%. With a GDP per capita (PPP) of $3,649.53, the economy of India is made up of agriculture, mining, industry, construction and services. Services are the major economic driver for India and the best-performing. The biggest and most crucial market for India is U.S for IT. PESTE Factors 1. Political Factors * Stability of Government India is a federal republic with 28 states and seven union territories with Mr Pranab Mukherjee being the president of India since he was elected in July 2012. As of today, there are 13 political organizations with Indian National Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). In...
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